Core Insights - The recent decline in Bitcoin is primarily attributed to the contraction of US dollar liquidity rather than changes in fundamentals [1] - Since July, approximately $1 trillion in US dollar liquidity has evaporated, leading to the withdrawal of ETF arbitrage funds and a shift in DAT premiums, which has exposed Bitcoin to a negative liquidity environment [1] - Short-term projections suggest Bitcoin may further decline to the $80,000 to $85,000 range, influenced by potential credit events and rising US Treasury yields [1] - A significant correction in the US stock market (10% to 20%) and increased pressure on Treasury yields may compel the Federal Reserve and Treasury to implement substantial monetary easing, potentially driving Bitcoin prices up to $200,000 to $250,000 by year-end [1]