周末两天，比特币强劲拉升。 截至发稿，比特币涨近3%，涨至86600美元上方，盘中一度突破87000美元，其余加密货币，以太坊， 狗狗币等也大幅上涨。 CoinGlass网站数据显示，近24小时内，加密货币共有超11万人爆仓。 值得注意的是，上周五（11月21日），美股迎来久违反弹，主要原因还是美联储三号人物威廉姆斯周五 的讲话，押注再次转向更高的降息概率。 威廉姆斯表示，"在不久的将来"降息可能是合理的，这推动投资者提高了对12月降息的预期。 责编：彭勃 校对：王朝全 美国财长贝森特表示，利率敏感行业正处于衰退期，但对（此类行业）2026年的增长前景充满信心。 不过，就在11月22日，波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯表示，她认为美联储没有在12月继续降息的必要。 这番表态进一步凸显出决策者对未来货币政策行动的分歧。 据报道，自10月29日政策会议以来，美联储主席鲍威尔本人尚未公开发言。目前12名有投票权的联邦公 开市场委员会成员中，已有5人表态倾向维持利率不变，几乎形成势均力敌的局面，这意味着无论12月 10日做出何种决定，都可能出现反对票。 中信证券研报称，判断11月20日美股下跌由宏观因素主导，而非AI泡沫破 ...

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 在最新文章中表示，当前比特币下跌主要因美元流动性收 缩，而非基本面变化，ETF 与 DAT 资金流的消退使市场重新暴露在负流动性环境下。Arthur 指出，自 7 月以来美元流动性指数已蒸发约 1 万亿美元，ETF 套利资金撤离、DAT 溢价转折价使比特币失去"伪 买盘"，市场需先回调以重新匹配流动性现实。他认为 BTC 在短期可能进一步跌向 8 万～8.5 万美元区 间，对应潜在的信用事件与美债利率走高。他预计，一旦美股出现 10%～20% 回调、美债收益率上 压，美联储与财政部将被迫再次开启实质性放水，随后比特币可能在年末反向快速拉升至 20 万～25 万 美元。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.17% to 6771.55 points, the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2.04% to 23348.64 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.53% to 47085.24 points, reflecting concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market [1] Company Performance - Palantir, a leading AI stock, reported earnings that exceeded expectations and raised its guidance, yet its stock fell by 7.94%, highlighting its status as a representative of the "AI bubble" after a fourfold increase in the past year [2] - Nvidia's stock declined by 3.96%, while other major tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft saw mixed results, with Apple rising by 0.37% and Microsoft falling by 0.52% [8] - Chinese stocks also faced pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 2.05%, including Alibaba down by 2.02% and JD down by 2.93% [8] Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley executives expressed concerns about a potential 10% to 20% market pullback over the next 12 to 24 months, which has contributed to investor anxiety [6] - The retail investor sentiment index compiled by Goldman Sachs fell by 3.6%, indicating a significant drop in retail investor confidence [5] IPO and M&A Activity - Beta Technologies, an electric aircraft company, completed its IPO at $34 per share, raising over $1 billion, and saw its stock rise by 5.88% despite the overall market downturn [16] - Pfizer and Novo Nordisk are in a bidding war for Metsera, with Pfizer raising its offer to $8.1 billion and Novo Nordisk offering up to $10 billion, leading to a 20.5% increase in Metsera's stock [12] Corporate Developments - IBM announced plans to lay off thousands of employees in Q4, affecting a low single-digit percentage of its global workforce [15] - Amazon has issued a cease-and-desist order to AI startup Perplexity, demanding it stop using its AI browser for shopping on Amazon's platform [10] - Apple is reportedly preparing to enter the low-cost laptop market to attract consumers currently using Chromebooks and entry-level Windows laptops [11]

Group 1 - Dongwu Securities indicates that the recovery of prices is crucial for economic growth and capital markets, with favorable conditions in consumption demand, monetary liquidity, and exchange rates [1] - The chief economist of Dongwu Securities, Lu Zhe, highlights that long-term demographic, industrial, and fiscal transformations will boost household income, predicting a more optimistic total consumption due to the simultaneous movement of population and consumption peaks in the next decade [1] - The report suggests that the central bank's initiation of government bond trading and fiscal debt reduction will facilitate the transfer of fiscal deposits to households and enterprises, leading to a significant rebound in M1 growth over the past year, which will in turn drive PPI recovery [1] Group 2 - The dollar has slightly weakened as investors assess the differing views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing caution due to persistent inflation [2] - Wall Street executives warn that investors should prepare for a potential market correction of over 10% within the next 12 to 24 months, emphasizing that such corrections are common in market cycles [2] Group 3 - Analysts from ING state that the daily fluctuations in Eurozone government bond yields are predominantly influenced by U.S. trends, as there are insufficient internal factors to change direction [3] - Mizuho Financial Group's CEO expresses confidence that Japan's growth-promoting policies and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan will drive bank business expansion [3] Group 4 - Capital Economics suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has room for future interest rate cuts, maintaining a neutral stance despite mixed economic data [4] - Moody's analysis indicates that the RBA is unlikely to cut rates until mid-2026 at the earliest, contingent on a convincing decline in inflation [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly regarding potential rate cuts in September [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll number is below 100,000, a rate cut in September is almost certain [4]. - The market's expectation for a September rate cut has decreased from 65% to 42% following the release of various economic indicators that fell within reasonable expectations [3]. Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the August non-farm payroll increase may only be 80,000, which would lower the three-month average to 35,000, significantly below the previous market estimate of 150,000 [5]. - Concerns about the reliability of employment data are raised, particularly due to the "birth-death model" used in non-farm statistics, which has an estimation bias of 12,000 [5]. - Recent economic indicators show a 0.4% increase in consumer spending and a narrowing decline in business investment to 0.2%, but the trend remains unstable [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, has signaled a high probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, with market expectations reaching 91.1% for this move, potentially followed by another cut by year-end [1] Economic Indicators - Current economic conditions are stable, but there are concerns regarding a slight softening in the employment sector, which could pose risks [1] - Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2% target, despite previous price increases due to tariffs, which Powell described as a "one-time shock" [1] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets reacted positively, with the Dow Jones reaching a historic high above 46,000 points and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.88%. Related financial indices in the A-share market rose by 2.7% [1] - The anticipated interest rate cut is expected to lead to a higher opening for A-shares, driven by a weaker dollar and increased foreign investment [1] Investment Considerations - While the interest rate cut is seen as a positive signal, there are underlying concerns about potential economic weakness and the risk of a recession, which could negatively impact both U.S. and A-share markets [1] - The possibility of a rebound in inflation could lead to tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, disrupting market momentum [1] - A prior increase in A-share prices may indicate that some investors have already positioned themselves, raising the risk of a sell-off if the market opens too high [1] Strategic Focus - Future investment strategies should closely monitor U.S. economic data, particularly employment and inflation metrics, as well as the opening trends and trading volumes in the A-share market [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices rebounded but faced resistance, touching $3370 before closing at $3355.90, with a gain of 0.24% [1] - Market sentiment for gold remained stable despite calls for a 50 basis point rate cut, with only a $20 increase from the opening price [5] - Technical analysis indicates potential downward movement for gold prices, with support levels identified around $3330-3340 and $3315 [18] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a cooling of expectations for rate cuts, with emphasis on reviewing more economic data before making decisions [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has called for significant rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point cut in September and a total reduction of 150 to 175 basis points [5] - Market expectations for rate cuts are aggressive, with a 93.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 64.1% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by October [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Economists predict a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, with core PPI expected to rise by 2.9% [10] - A slowdown in industrial prices could increase the likelihood of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [10] Group 4: Stock Market Outlook - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.04% and the S&P 500 rising 0.32% [2] - Concerns have been raised about a potential market correction, with UBS issuing a rare bearish stance on the U.S. economy and stock market [10]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI in July fell to 50.1 from 50.8, nearing the threshold of expansion and contraction[1] - The Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48, marking five consecutive months in contraction territory[1] - The prices paid index surged to 69.9, a 34-month high, indicating increased cost pressures on consumer prices[1] Employment and Market Outlook - Recent non-farm payroll data suggests a weakening labor market, with initial jobless claims remaining elevated[1] - Short-term outlook for U.S. equities indicates potential downward pressure due to slowing corporate earnings growth and historical volatility in September[1] - The large-cap tech sector may benefit from a potential interest rate cut cycle, which could lower financing costs and support profit resilience[2] Risks and Recommendations - Risks include unexpected inflation rebound and delayed Fed rate cuts, as well as a sharper-than-expected economic downturn impacting corporate profits[3] - Historical experience suggests that market corrections during economic soft landing phases can present opportunities for quality asset accumulation[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. stock market is poised for a slight pullback, with potential concerns accumulating [1] Group 2 - Dominic Pappalardo, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at Morningstar Wealth, expresses the belief that the market is ready for a minor correction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weak employment data and concerns over tariff-related inflation may trigger a pullback in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the seasonally weak third quarter. The company plans to buy during the pullback [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson highlights the potential for a market correction due to economic indicators [1] - The third quarter is typically characterized by weaker performance, which may exacerbate the impact of the current economic concerns [1]