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日本央行加息预期升温 美元/日元自低位反弹
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-25 03:34
Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 146.58 to trade between 146.80 and 147.52, currently at 147.4200, reflecting a 0.33% increase [1] - Japan's inflation data for July slightly exceeded expectations, with the national CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as early as October [1] - Economists increasingly support a 25 basis point rate hike by the BOJ in Q4, with October seen as the most likely time for policy tightening, driven by strong GDP growth and a renewed trade agreement with the US [1] Group 2 - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that a tight labor market will continue to exert upward pressure on wages, suggesting that stable inflation is imminent [2] - Ueda's comments may fuel speculation about another rate hike this year, although he did not directly address monetary policy during his speech [2] - The BOJ has identified labor shortages as a key factor driving inflation through wage growth [2] Group 3 - The USD is experiencing a slow upward correction, with the USD/JPY gradually adjusting to the mid-range [3] - Short-term pressure levels are near the mid-axis around 147.9, with technical indicators showing a bearish trend despite a strong rebound [3] - The overall market is currently in a consolidation phase within the range of 146 to 149.5, with key resistance at 147.7 [3]