日本央行加息

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野村:美联储主席鲍威尔的偏宽松讲话可能加大美元/日元的下行空间
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 00:59
野村全球市场研究团队在一份研究报告中表示,美联储主席鲍威尔上周五发表的偏宽松讲话,可能给美 元兑日元带来更多下行空间。该团队表示,鲍威尔的言论增加了美联储在9月份会议上降息的可能性, 并补充说,美元短期内或将继续走弱。野村表示:"我们对我们做空美元/日元的交易更有信心",该交 易的目标水平为到10月底1美元兑142.00日元。近期的焦点还包括日本央行政策委员会审议委员中川顺 子等官员关于年底前加息可能性的讲话。 ...
每日机构分析:8月15日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 13:55
Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]
国元证券实时热点
Guoyuan Securities2· 2025-08-11 02:28
Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September, with three cuts expected by year-end[4] - U.S. June imports saw a significant decline, exceeding expectations[4] - Japan's central bank may resume interest rate hikes by year-end if U.S. tariffs have limited impact[4] - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices reached a two-year high in July[4] Market Performance - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 3.45 basis points to 3.762%[4] - 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.15 basis points to 3.833%[4] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 3.49 basis points to 4.287%[4] Economic Data - China's Q2 current account surplus was 971.5 billion yuan[4] - China's July CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while PPI's decline narrowed[4] - China's robot industry revenue grew by 27.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] Stock Market Indices - Nasdaq index closed at 21,450.02, up 0.98%[6] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,175.61, up 0.47%[6] - Hang Seng Index closed at 24,858.82, down 0.89%[6]
美财长:正牵头物色鲍威尔的继任人选
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-10 23:49
据央视新闻报道,当地时间8月10日,美国财政部长贝森特表示,他正牵头物色美国联邦储备 委员会主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 △美国财政部长贝森特(资料图) 图源:央视新闻 贝森特表示,新任美联储主席应具备审视整个机构的能力,赢得市场信任、能分析复杂经济数 据,并注重前瞻性思维而非依赖历史数据。 2 智能 悦 读 · 权 威 . ry S 扫码点击下载 近期,美国总统特朗普连续发声,要求美联储委员会进一步降息,并以下一任美联储主席人选 的话题对现任主席鲍威尔施压。鲍威尔回应称,美联储货币政策必须"完全非政治",重申美联 储仍在观察美国关税带来的影响,而后再进一步决策。 鲍威尔的任期应于2026年5月结束,他在特朗普第一任期内被提名为美联储主席。美国总统通 常会在现任美联储主席任期最后几个月才宣布下一任提名人选。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨金珊 美联储9月降息概率大增 日本央行坎坷的加息之路 SFC 21君荐读 ...
日本央行坎坷的加息之路
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-08 22:32
Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the current interest rate at 0.5% despite rising inflation, with no indication of a near-term rate hike [1][2] - Japan's consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2% for over three years [1][2] - Major financial institutions in Japan are calling for a rate hike in September or October, citing the need to address the widening interest rate differential with the US and Eurozone [1][2] Group 2 - Despite high inflation, the Bank of Japan believes the underlying inflation rate has not reached 2%, and consumer activity has been declining since March [2][3] - Japan's GDP growth was -0.2% in Q1 and stagnant in Q2, indicating that inflation is not a sign of economic strength but rather a result of yen depreciation and labor shortages [3][4] - Political instability following the recent upper house elections complicates the situation, making it difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [4][5] Group 3 - The US economy grew by 3.0% in Q2, but this growth is seen as temporary, and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could impact Japan's interest rate decisions [5][6] - If the US economy remains strong, it could lead to further yen depreciation and increased domestic prices in Japan, potentially creating an opportunity for the Bank of Japan to raise rates [5][6]
日本工资数据:6月名义增2.5%,加息与通胀问题待解
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 06:48
Core Viewpoint - Japan's nominal wages have increased at the fastest rate in four months, raising speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the coming months [1] Wage Growth - In June, nominal wages rose by 2.5% year-on-year, up from a revised 1.4% in May, although it fell short of the expected 3.1% [1] - Basic wages increased by 2.1%, with full-time workers seeing a 2.3% rise [1] Real Wages and Inflation - Despite strong nominal wage growth, real wages fell by 1.3%, which was a larger decline than the anticipated 0.7% [1] - The main inflation indicator reached 3.3% in June, with over 1,000 price increases reported by food and beverage companies in August, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase [1] Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% last week, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing the importance of ensuring a "positive mechanism" for wages and prices [1] - Over 40% of respondents predict a rate hike in October, with more than half expecting an increase by the end of the year [1] Economic Pressure - The decline in real wages may increase pressure on Prime Minister Kishida to take stronger actions to help households cope with rising living costs [1] - Upcoming GDP data, expected to show weak growth due to inflation suppressing consumption, will be a reference for future Bank of Japan decisions [1] Labor Market Dynamics - Policymakers anticipate continued upward pressure on wages driven by labor shortages [1] - The U.S.-Japan trade policy may pose challenges, as increased import tariffs from the U.S. could erode corporate profits and impact wage growth [1]
三菱日联(MUFG.US)CEO罕见呼吁日央行加息,预测最早或于9月会议启动
智通财经网· 2025-08-04 23:32
Group 1 - The CEO of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) expressed views on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike timing, suggesting a possible adjustment in March next year, but also indicating a high likelihood of a hike in September or October this year [1] - MUFG reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in net income for the first quarter of the fiscal year, amounting to 546.1 billion yen, while basic earnings per share remained stable at 47.55 yen, slightly exceeding analyst expectations [1] - The group aims for a record annual profit target of 2 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), attributing this to rising interest rates, yen depreciation, and the sale of client company shares [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% while raising inflation forecasts for the next three years, with 42% of surveyed economists expecting a rate hike in October [2] - Continuous wage growth is a key consideration for the Bank of Japan's decisions, with expectations that companies may continue to raise salaries to address labor shortages [5] - MUFG's stock price has increased by approximately 11% this year, following a trend of over 35% annual growth in the previous four years [5] Group 3 - The group aims for a long-term return on equity target of 12%, with recent figures around 10%, and needs to generate an additional 1.2 trillion yen in net operating profit to support a 2% increase in return rates [5] - MUFG is considering expanding its securitization business and taking on more risk in project financing to drive business growth [5]
植田和男谨慎表态难阻市场押注 日本央行加息时点或大幅提前至10月
智通财经网· 2025-08-04 01:41
Group 1 - The market's expectations for Japan's trade outlook have become clearer following U.S. President Trump's announcement of multiple agreements, including the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, leading to increased predictions for a Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate hike in October [1] - A recent survey of 45 economists indicated that approximately 42% expect the BOJ to raise rates in October, a significant increase from 32% in the previous survey [1] - The BOJ's recent upward revision of inflation forecasts and adjustments to risk assessments are seen as paving the way for a potential rate hike [4] Group 2 - The BOJ's quarterly outlook report raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year from 2.2% to 2.7%, indicating a shift in the bank's perception of price risks [4] - Despite the hawkish signals from the BOJ's report, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need for caution, suggesting that there is no immediate necessity for a rate hike [5] - Approximately 44% of economists believe that the weakening yen is increasingly becoming a key factor prompting a rate hike, while 35% disagree [6] Group 3 - Political uncertainty following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's significant defeat in the July 20 Senate elections may pose challenges to the BOJ's monetary policy operations [6] - About 71% of economists think that if Ishiba is replaced by a pro-monetary easing advocate, the BOJ may not be able to raise rates this year [6] - Some analysts question whether the BOJ will have sufficient data to support another rate hike within the year, given the need for careful analysis of economic data [7]
日本央行的“观望期”结束了?分析师警告:后市每次会议都可能加息!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-01 08:57
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 植田和男在周四的新闻发布会上被问及下一次加息时机时说,"并非说我们要等到基础通胀牢固地达到 2%才会行动。我们的决定取决于基础通胀达到该水平的可能性有多大。" 分析人士称,总而言之,这些信号表明日本央行正在为再次加息做准备,同时对确切时机保留了所有选 项。 三菱日联摩根士丹利证券的首席债券策略师Naomi Muguruma说,"这份展望报告清楚地表明,日本央行 正开始为加息奠定基础,日本央行似乎对其持久地达到通胀目标的前景充满信心,它可能不急,但这是 在暗示从现在起每一次政策会议都可能是采取行动的时点。" 日本央行下一次政策会议将在9月举行,另一次在10月,届时委员会将对增长和物价预测进行季度审 查,其今年的最后一次议息会议在12月。 音频由扣子空间生成 日本央行本周为其恢复加息奠定了基础,首次明确阐述了持续的食品价格上涨可能引发基础广泛的通胀 的风险。 分析人士称,尽管市场对日本央行行长植田和男在周四(昨日)政策会议后的评论作出了鸽派解读,但 他的大部分指引都表明,在经历了一段观望期后,该行正悄悄地重回行动轨道。 委员会通胀偏向的转变,及其对美国关税影响不那么悲观的看法 ...
重要预告!美联储本周公布利率决议
天天基金网· 2025-07-28 05:12
上周,受积极的二季度财报表现,以及更多贸易协议有望落地的乐观情绪推动,标普500指数和纳指续 创历史新高。展望本周,微观层面,市场继续关注美股二季报,标普500指数中逾40%的成分股公司将 集中发布财报,Meta、苹果、亚马逊、微软、高通等多家大型科技股财报也将陆续披露。宏观层面 上,全球资本市场密切关注美联储7月议息会议的进展。 美股杠杆交易规模创新高 知名分析师警告 多数分析师表示,制约美联储降息最大的阻碍仍来自美国通胀前景的不确定性,对于下半年的降息时点 来说,关税需要多久会传导到消费端将成为美联储利率决议的关键。 近期,美股主要股指接连刷新历史纪录。上周,标普500指数全周上涨1.46%,纳斯达克指数上涨 1.02%,两者均于周五收于历史最高点位。 美国金融业监管局(FINRA)最新数据显示,6月末,美股投资者的保证金账户借款余额(Debit Balances)首次突破1万亿美元,高杠杆规模引发市场担忧。这一数字既包括机构也包括散户。保证金 账户借款余额是衡量美股杠杆交易规模的核心指标之一,主要反映投资者通过保证金账户向券商借入资 金买入证券后尚未偿还的借款总额。部分市场观点认为,如此之高的杠杆规模反 ...