Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing frequency of global risk events since 2025, noting that the US dollar, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has depreciated by nearly 8% as of November 20, 2025, raising concerns in the market [1] - The US federal government's debt issue is expected to persist due to the structural economic and political dynamics in the US, which diminish the motivation to resolve the debt problem, impacting both the US economy and the global market [2] - The US federal debt has reached unprecedented levels, climbing from $30 trillion in January 2022 to over $38 trillion during the government shutdown in 2025, with the pace of debt accumulation exceeding previous forecasts [4] Group 2 - The ratio of US debt to GDP has remained around 120% since the COVID-19 pandemic, with an average fiscal deficit of approximately 8.8% of GDP from 2020 to 2024, and projected at 6.2% for 2025 [5] - The public's share of the federal debt has increased to over 80%, indicating a growing reliance on public financing, which could lead to greater market volatility in response to negative news [5] - The US debt ceiling has been raised multiple times, with the latest increase set to $41.1 trillion, reflecting a pattern of raising or suspending the debt limit in response to crises rather than addressing the underlying fiscal issues [6] Group 3 - The persistent rise in US federal debt is primarily driven by long-term fiscal deficits, where government revenue growth has lagged behind expenditure growth for over two decades [8] - In the fiscal year 2025, the federal budget deficit is projected at $1.78 trillion, a decrease of $41 billion (2%) from the previous year, with revenue growth of $317 billion (6%) and expenditure growth of $275 billion (4%) [10] - Major rigid expenditures, such as social security and healthcare, account for nearly half of the budget, with significant growth driven by an aging population and rising healthcare costs [11] Group 4 - Political dynamics between the two major parties in the US complicate efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit, as both parties prioritize their electoral interests over long-term fiscal health [12] - Recent government shutdowns have highlighted the inability of the two parties to reach consensus on fiscal issues, reflecting a broader trend of political gridlock affecting fiscal policy [12] - The current political environment is unlikely to facilitate a fundamental resolution to the US debt crisis, as short-term electoral pressures continue to dominate fiscal decision-making [12]