北京时间10月3日晚，美股三大指数高开后，盘中均创历史新高，热门科技股涨跌不一。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 46944.23 | 22893.87 | | 6746.68 | | +424.51 +0.91% +49.82 +0.22% | | | +31.33 +0.47% | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌幅 == | | 微软(MICROSO... | | 519.130 | 0.66% | | MSFT.O | | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | | 258.225 | 0.43% | | AAPL.O | | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | | 222.765 | 0.16% | | AMZN.O | | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | | 188.990 | 0.05% | | NVDA.O | | | | | 脸书(META PLA ... | | 719.000 | -1.11% | | META.O | | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABE ... | | 243.470 | -1.20% ...

记者丨 吴斌 刘雪莹 编辑丨 李莹亮 吴桂兴 北京时间10月3日晚，美股三大指数高开后，盘中均创历史新高，热门科技股涨跌不一。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 46944.23 | 22893.87 | 6746.68 | | +424.51 +0.91% +49.82 +0.22% | | +31.33 +0.47% | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 == | | 微软(MICROSO... | 519.130 | 0.66% | | MSFT.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 258.225 | 0.43% | | AAPL.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 222.765 | 0.16% | | AMZN.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 188.990 | 0.05% | | NVDA.O | | | | 脸书(META PLA ... | 719.000 | -1.11% | | META.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABE ... | 243.470 | -1.20% | | GOOG.O | ...

2025年10月1日，美国政府面临停摆危机。原因很简单，政府的拨款法案未能通过参议院表决，导致大量政府工作人员只能暂时休假。然而，并不是所有政 府部门都停摆，法院系统仍会继续运行，避免了国家行政完全停顿的局面。 对于美国人来说，政府停摆已经不算什么新鲜事。自21世纪以来，由于预算问题发生过多次政府停摆。例如，2018至2019年，政府停摆长达35天，创下了历 史纪录；2013年因医保争议停摆了16天。每次停摆后，两党通常会先制定临时预算法案，暂时让政府运转起来，再慢慢磋商最终的预算方案。如此反复，已 经让美国民众对这种程序了如指掌。 然而，这次停摆与以往有所不同，最明显的变化就是市场反应。美股主要指数出现波动，虽然短期影响看似有限，但如果停摆时间过长，后果可能会相当严 重。更让人担忧的是，特朗普及共和党中的MAGA派似乎并不急于解决停摆问题，这让人不禁猜测，他们是否会故意延长停摆时间，以此来对抗那些与他 们意见不同的人。 要理解这次停摆背后的深层原因，还得回到美国的债务问题。特朗普在竞选时一直强调美国政府债务过高，必须采取措施减少债务，还提出了一些方案，比 如设立效率部，减少预算开支。但实际效果却不显著。效率 ...

黄金：如何定价，走向何方？20250912 摘要 2024 年，MEX 黄金和伦敦现货黄金年内累计涨幅分别达到 29.7%和 31.5%，9 月初接近 40%，主要受美联储降息预期、特朗普动摇美联储 独立性以及欧美债务可持续性担忧推动。 黄金价格受商品、货币、金融三重属性影响，与通胀正相关，与美元和 美债实际利率负相关。但自 2022 年以来，实际利率对金价的解释力减 弱，可能因实际利率误判或央行购金行为所致。 2022 年至 2024 年间，全球央行平均每年购金量达 1,060 吨，占全球 需求 23%，结构性需求推升金价，使得传统的实际利率-黄金定价框架 失效，应回归供需基础逻辑分析。 历史数据显示，金价显著涨势通常源于战争或危机，持续 10-12 年。当 前始于 2018-2019 年的涨势已持续六七年，若宏观环境继续支持避险 情绪及央行购金，金价或将保持强势。 全球央行购金原因包括美元信任度下降（冻结俄罗斯资产）、美国债务 问题（财政赤字和债务规模上升）、经济内生动能弱化以及新兴经济体 去发达经济体货币化趋势。 Q&A 如何理解 2025 年黄金价格的历史新高？ 2025 年初以来，金价快速攀升并屡创 ...

Core Viewpoint - The advantages of gold as a credit asset are becoming increasingly prominent against the backdrop of excessive issuance of U.S. government bonds, with gold prices nearing $3,800 per ounce, raising concerns about its future trajectory [1] Group 1: Evolution of Gold's Monetary Attributes - Historically, gold has served as a crucial support for currency circulation, providing stability and credibility to the monetary system, but its monetary attributes are gradually weakening [4][2] - The transition from a gold-backed currency system to a fiat currency system has occurred in two key phases: the classical gold standard and the Bretton Woods system, which linked currencies to gold at a fixed rate [2] - The collapse of the Bretton Woods system marked the liberation of gold prices from fixed exchange rates, leading to a floating exchange rate system and an era of credit currency [2] Group 2: Changes in Gold's Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold's investment demand has shown strong growth, increasing from 991 tons in 2021 to 1,182 tons in 2024, with gold ETFs transitioning from negative to positive contributions [4][6] - The demand for gold jewelry and technology applications has also been significant, with gold consumption in jewelry manufacturing decreasing from 2,247 tons in 2021 to 2,012 tons in 2024, while technological demand remains stable [6] - The supply of gold has not kept pace with demand, with total demand rising from 4,026 tons in 2021 to 4,606 tons in 2024, while gold mine production only increased from 3,573 tons to 3,673 tons during the same period [7] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Gold's Safe-Haven Demand - Geopolitical tensions have heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with military conflicts leading to inflationary pressures that typically drive up gold prices [11] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices has been evident, with the dollar index declining from 108.6 in January to 98.2 in August, while gold prices rose by 23.9% during the same period [8][10] - Central banks, particularly in developing countries, have been increasing their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to raise their gold reserves in the next 12 months, up from 81% the previous year [13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The future trajectory of gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical developments and the sustainability of U.S. debt, with two potential scenarios: stabilization or further escalation of tensions [20][21] - If geopolitical tensions ease and U.S. debt issues are managed, gold prices may stabilize or face downward pressure, as current prices are significantly above production costs [21] - Conversely, if geopolitical conflicts intensify and U.S. debt issues worsen, gold's safe-haven attributes may become more pronounced, leading to further price increases [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, which is more than the entire GDP for 2024, indicating that the government is spending more than it earns [5][7] - The speed of debt accumulation has accelerated dramatically, with the debt increasing by $1 trillion in as little as three months, compared to five years for the previous $10 trillion increase [3][7] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to consume $879.9 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, which is more than military spending and healthcare combined, accounting for 13% of total federal expenditures [7][9] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing that the debt and interest ratios are significantly higher than those of comparable countries [11][12] - The market reacted to the downgrade, with 30-year U.S. Treasury yields surpassing 5%, leading to investor sell-offs due to fears of devaluation [12][14] - Countries holding U.S. debt, such as China and Japan, are reducing their holdings, indicating a lack of confidence in U.S. debt, while the UK has increased its holdings [14][16] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as it attempts to lower interest rates while managing inflation, complicating the situation further if it were to print more money to pay off the debt [22][28] - Historical examples of countries that printed money to pay off debts, such as Germany and Venezuela, resulted in severe hyperinflation and economic collapse, raising concerns about similar outcomes for the U.S. [24][26][46] - The global reliance on the U.S. dollar is decreasing, with countries increasingly opting for local currencies in trade, as evidenced by the rise of the Chinese yuan in international transactions [30][33][55] Group 4 - Proposed solutions to the U.S. debt issue include increasing taxes or reducing spending, but political resistance makes these options difficult to implement [40][42] - The Federal Reserve is also reducing its balance sheet, which may exacerbate the debt situation as less money in circulation could lead to higher borrowing costs [44] - The potential for rising unemployment due to economic downturns linked to debt management strategies poses a significant risk to the labor market [52][56]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bond market is experiencing a sell-off of long-term bonds despite high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, indicating concerns over long-term inflation and debt issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 3, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a high of 5%, the highest since July, while the 10-year yield hit 4.3% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September reached 97.4% as of September 4, typically leading to lower bond yields; however, yields are rising instead [1][2] - Seasonal factors contribute to the sell-off, as September is a peak month for corporate bond issuance, diverting funds away from Treasury bonds [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Debt Concerns - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects market worries about long-term inflation and U.S. debt risks, despite expectations for a Fed rate cut [2][3] - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates price increases related to tariffs, with companies passing on costs to customers, suggesting continued inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion in net debt in Q3, with approximately $470 billion in long-term bonds, increasing supply and raising yield expectations [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart rate cuts in September, with market pricing indicating two cuts by year-end; however, long-term yields may remain constrained due to inflation and debt concerns [4] - If the Fed signals a cautious approach to rate cuts, bond yields may face upward pressure, especially if corporate bond issuance exceeds expectations in mid to late September [4] - Short-term yields are expected to decline in line with policy rates, while long-term yields may not decrease significantly due to ongoing inflation and debt issues [4]

Company News - Nvidia clarified rumors regarding the H100 and H200 GPUs, stating that supply is sufficient to meet all orders immediately, countering claims of limited availability [7] - Tesla announced a significant shift in strategy with the release of its "Master Plan Part IV," focusing on integrating artificial intelligence into the physical world, moving beyond its previous emphasis on electric vehicles and energy [8][9]

Group 1 - The perception among some Chinese Americans is that the U.S. has won the tariff war, believing that the U.S. has achieved its goals and gained hundreds of billions in additional revenue, despite the looming $9 trillion debt due this year [1][3] - The U.S. currently has nearly $37 trillion in debt, with approximately $28 trillion being domestic debt, mostly held by the Federal Reserve and large family trusts on Wall Street [3][5] - Wall Street has raised the interest on U.S. debt to over 5% annually, with about one-third of this debt maturing this year, leading to a potential doubling of interest payments by 2026 [5][9] Group 2 - A significant portion of the funds from U.S. debt has been funneled into the valuations of the "Big Seven" Wall Street firms, which have valuations nearing $2-4 trillion, almost equivalent to the U.S. GDP [7][9] - The ongoing financial strategies in the U.S. are characterized as "number games," with concerns that the country may face challenges in military production capabilities if a conflict arises, given the reliance on foreign components for critical projects like the F35 [9]