Group 1 - The dollar options market is signaling a potential new round of downward pressure on the dollar, coinciding with various risk factors accumulating before August, which may further weaken the dollar's performance [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal indicator has turned negative for the first time in two weeks, indicating a shift in market sentiment favoring protective positions against dollar weakness [1][2] - There is an increasing demand for downside risk exposure in the options market, reflecting a broader return of bearish sentiment towards the dollar [1][2] Group 2 - Traders are preparing for a continuation of the existing downward trend, with volatility skew turning more negative compared to the rebound period in June [2] - Concerns over potential dovish signals from the Federal Reserve's July meeting and the unpredictability of Trump administration policies are influencing market sentiment [2] - Multiple macroeconomic factors, including new tariff announcements and ongoing weak U.S. economic data, are reshaping short-term expectations for the dollar [2] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the dollar remains locked in a bearish trend channel, with recent rebounds showing a pattern of diminishing momentum after approximately a 2% increase [3] - The recent upward movement of the dollar has been constrained by the 55-day moving average, which has repeatedly acted as a ceiling for price increases [4] - The strong performance of the dollar in July is viewed as a corrective move rather than a trend reversal, reinforcing the market's perspective that dollar strength should be seen as an opportunity to sell at higher levels [4]