当炮火声传来，资本第一时间寻找的不是增长故事，而是"现金流与货币锚"。这一次，市场把 选票投给了美国零售巨头。 在全球地缘政治阴云密布、冲突风险不断升温的背景下，资本市场的反应往往比新闻标题更为 诚实。当投资者屏息凝视着中东的硝烟或东欧的战线时，美股市场却上演了一场看似悖论的行 情：成长股与高弹性科技板块承压回调，而沃尔玛（Walmart）、好市多（Costco）、塔吉 特（Target）乃至百思买（Best Buy）等零售巨头却逆势上行，屡创股价新高。这并非简单 的板块轮动，而是一场深刻的资本逻辑重构。在不确定性激增的时代，资金不再痴迷于遥远的 AI 梦想，而是回归到最朴素的真理——谁能提供稳定的美元现金流，谁能在高利率与通胀的夹 击下生存，谁就是真正的避风港。 *内容仅为呈现不同市场观点与研究视角，并不意味着本公众号对文中观点结论认可。 表 面 是 零 售 反 弹 ， 本 质 是 美 元 资 产 回 流 在地缘政治风险升温的背景下，成长股与高弹性板块承压，但沃尔玛、好市多、塔吉特、百思 买却逆势上行。表面看，这是防御性消费板块的轮动；但更深层的逻辑，是全球资金在风险上 升时回流美元核心资产。 【如需和我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - A strategic global capital rebalancing is underway, with capital flowing from dollar assets to non-dollar assets, significantly impacting markets like China [1][2]. Group 1: Global Capital Diversification - Global investors are reassessing their stock exposure due to trade dynamics, fiscal policy uncertainties, and currency pressures, leading to a diversification of revenue sources into Europe, Japan, China, and other Asian markets [2][3]. - The past 25 years saw a heavy bias towards U.S. assets, but the current depreciation of the dollar and capital outflows are expected to significantly alter the weight of U.S. assets in global indices [3][4]. - Investors are increasingly interested in European and Asian high-rated sovereign bonds, as well as local currency debt markets, indicating a shift in fixed income preferences [7]. Group 2: Emerging Markets and China - The decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative and the growing demand for diversified investments are enhancing global investors' exposure to Chinese assets and renminbi-denominated assets [9]. - China's bond market, valued at 180 trillion yuan, is seen as an ideal choice for large institutional investors seeking low-volatility assets, particularly government bonds [10]. - The 10-year Chinese government bond is projected to yield over 7% without hedging, outperforming most other countries' bonds, making it an attractive option for investors [11]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Asia - Asian local currency and bonds are favored due to low inflation pressures, with Asian dollar investment-grade bonds providing strong defensive characteristics and attractive risk-adjusted returns [8]. - Emerging markets, particularly those represented by China, are becoming increasingly attractive as the dollar depreciates, benefiting local bonds and equities [5][6].