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广发期货日评-20250521
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 03:43
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. The LPR and deposit rates have decreased, leading to a recovery in the consumer sector. Short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and precious metals have rebounded after a decline. Various commodities such as shipping, industrial materials, and agricultural products show different trends and characteristics [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - For stock index futures (IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506), sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered - call strategy. For Treasury bond futures (T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506), short - term Treasury bonds may be in a shock, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital dynamics. For precious metals (AU2508, AG2508), short - term gold should focus on regaining the $3300 (775 yuan) mark, and silver will follow gold and fluctuate strongly in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. Black - The shipping index (EC2508) is in short - term shock consolidation, and 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads can be considered. For steel (RB2510), industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore (I2509) fluctuates in the range of 700 - 745. Coke (J2509) has entered a new price cut stage, and coal prices may be in the bottom - seeking stage. Strategies such as long hot - rolled coils and short coke, long hot - rolled coils and short coking coal can be considered [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper (CU2506) should focus on the pressure level of 78000 - 79000, zinc (ZN2507) has strong upper pressure, and nickel (NI2506) and stainless steel (SS2507) maintain a weak shock. Tin (SN2506) should be treated with a bearish rebound approach [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude oil (SC2507) is affected by macro and geopolitical risks, and the WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [450, 510]. Urea (UR2509) has low market demand activity and short - term shock. PX (PX2509) and PTA (TA2509) are under short - term pressure, and short - fiber (PF2507), bottle - grade polyester chips (PR2507), ethanol (EG2509), etc. have different trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural - Soybean meal (M2509, RM509) is suppressed by arrival pressure, and the performance around 2900 should be observed. Live pigs (6095ZHT) are in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the 13500 support. Corn (C2507) is in a shock correction, and attention should be paid to the 2300 support. Palm oil may reach 8200. Other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own characteristics and trading suggestions [2]. Special Commodities - Glass (FG2509) is pessimistic in the market, and attention should be paid to the 1000 - point support. Rubber (RU2509) has risen slightly due to storage news, and the upper limit of the range can be lightly short - sold. Industrial silicon (Si2506) has broken through the position and fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon (PS2506) futures are falling in a shock, and long positions should be closed. Lithium carbonate (LC2507) is in a weak operation, and the main contract is expected to run between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].