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广发期货日评-20250521
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 03:43
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. The LPR and deposit rates have decreased, leading to a recovery in the consumer sector. Short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and precious metals have rebounded after a decline. Various commodities such as shipping, industrial materials, and agricultural products show different trends and characteristics [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - For stock index futures (IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506), sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered - call strategy. For Treasury bond futures (T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506), short - term Treasury bonds may be in a shock, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital dynamics. For precious metals (AU2508, AG2508), short - term gold should focus on regaining the $3300 (775 yuan) mark, and silver will follow gold and fluctuate strongly in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. Black - The shipping index (EC2508) is in short - term shock consolidation, and 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads can be considered. For steel (RB2510), industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore (I2509) fluctuates in the range of 700 - 745. Coke (J2509) has entered a new price cut stage, and coal prices may be in the bottom - seeking stage. Strategies such as long hot - rolled coils and short coke, long hot - rolled coils and short coking coal can be considered [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper (CU2506) should focus on the pressure level of 78000 - 79000, zinc (ZN2507) has strong upper pressure, and nickel (NI2506) and stainless steel (SS2507) maintain a weak shock. Tin (SN2506) should be treated with a bearish rebound approach [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude oil (SC2507) is affected by macro and geopolitical risks, and the WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [450, 510]. Urea (UR2509) has low market demand activity and short - term shock. PX (PX2509) and PTA (TA2509) are under short - term pressure, and short - fiber (PF2507), bottle - grade polyester chips (PR2507), ethanol (EG2509), etc. have different trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural - Soybean meal (M2509, RM509) is suppressed by arrival pressure, and the performance around 2900 should be observed. Live pigs (6095ZHT) are in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the 13500 support. Corn (C2507) is in a shock correction, and attention should be paid to the 2300 support. Palm oil may reach 8200. Other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own characteristics and trading suggestions [2]. Special Commodities - Glass (FG2509) is pessimistic in the market, and attention should be paid to the 1000 - point support. Rubber (RU2509) has risen slightly due to storage news, and the upper limit of the range can be lightly short - sold. Industrial silicon (Si2506) has broken through the position and fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon (PS2506) futures are falling in a shock, and long positions should be closed. Lithium carbonate (LC2507) is in a weak operation, and the main contract is expected to run between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].
【招商食品|最新】大众品情绪回暖,临近春节催化密集
招商食品饮料· 2024-12-23 09:23
证券研究报告| 行业深度报告 2024 年 12 月2 3 日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告: 食品情绪先于白酒回暖,微信小店推出 "送礼物"新玩法,打开春节礼赠新场景、活跃送礼氛围,零食等相关板块情绪进 一步高涨。调味品、乳制品、零食龙头四季度增长环比改善, 12 月底到 + 1 月关注春节备货反馈。白酒进入供给侧主动收缩去杠杆的阶段,市场将更关注酒 企实际动销,股价或先于报表出现拐点。对于白酒春节动销,市场普遍预期不高,但考 虑旺季脉冲效应 政策转向刺激 + 今年春节较早,我们认为产业有望复刻去年超预期行情。 最新观点 核心公司跟踪:五粮液召开1218大会,洽洽前三季度现金分红 五粮液: 召开第二十八届1218共商共建共享大会, 2025年定位"营销执行提升年",将经销商合理利润放在营销工作首 位,目标制定和经营节奏将充分结合经济环境、政策变化审慎决策。 酒鬼酒: 郑轶先生因工作调整原因辞去公司总经理职务,仍担任公司副董事长职务。根据工作需要,公司第九届董事 会聘任程军先生为公司总经理,任期自董事会聘任之日起至第九届董事会任期届满时止。 洽洽食品: 公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金3元(含税),现金分红总额 ...