化工-关注反内卷低估值龙头及供需边际改善板块 20260108 摘要 化工行业目前处于景气底部，受全球制造业 PMI 疲软和需求增速放缓影 响，化工 PPI 表现较弱。未来若美联储降息或国内促消费政策落地，有 望推动需求侧修复，利好化工 PPI 回升。 油价低于煤价导致化工品价格缺乏成本支撑，国内地产和美国高抵押贷 款利率抑制需求。若美国持续降息至抵押贷款利率低于 4%，海外地产 有望修复，带动国内建材相关标的受益。 全球化工行业格局变化，欧美国家销售额占比下降，中国占比提升至全 球半壁江山。欧洲受能源成本影响去工业化，利好中国化工企业，一旦 景气反转，中国企业将拥有更大价格弹性。 国内石油石化等基础产业固定资产投资完成额同比转负，预示新增投资 减少，未来供不应求时 PPI 价格将回升。上市公司在建工程同比连续三 季度负增长，或预示 2027 年行业反转。 化工行业整体 ROE 较低，但多数子板块估值便宜。四季度反内卷行情带 动部分龙头股 PB 估值修复，机构持仓比例有望逐步回升。看好反内卷 策略，核心资产是推荐对象。 Q&A 2025 年化工行业的整体表现如何？有哪些主要趋势和变化？ 2025 年化工行业经 ...

本文来自方正证券研究所于2025年12月21日发布的报告《关注反内卷低估值龙头及供需边际改善板块》，欲了解具体内容，请阅读报告原文。 张汪强 S1220524120002 核心观点 25FY化工景气底部延续，市场风格景气投资与主题行情齐头并进。25Q3以来全球制造业景气回暖，但需求增速放缓，化工品PPI同比走弱。需求侧国内地 产处于周期底部，新能源车销量维持高增长，社零增速稳中向好，促消费政策持续发力。供给侧中国已成为全球化工行业领导者，而近年来欧盟区制造业 和化工业产能利用率下行，德国基础化学品产量持续下滑，国内相对维持稳定；Capex方面国内基化固投增速已转负，但供过于求对价格的短期压制因素 仍在，库存周期仍在被动补库阶段。量增价减企业利润承压，尽管油煤开始下行，化工大宗价差短期仍在历史底部，资源型企业ROE相对高位。在市场风 格上，化工景气子板块如氟化工、磷肥钾肥等表现良好，期间穿插事故驱动的小品种涨价行情，主题投资方面，机器人、固态电池、AI等科技主题映射 的膜材、树脂板块下半年表现出色，供给侧反内卷行情此起彼伏，总体看基化整体估值明显修复。机构持仓方面，3Q25主动基金降低化工板块配置，膜 材料、氮 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. The LPR and deposit rates have decreased, leading to a recovery in the consumer sector. Short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and precious metals have rebounded after a decline. Various commodities such as shipping, industrial materials, and agricultural products show different trends and characteristics [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - For stock index futures (IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506), sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered - call strategy. For Treasury bond futures (T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506), short - term Treasury bonds may be in a shock, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital dynamics. For precious metals (AU2508, AG2508), short - term gold should focus on regaining the $3300 (775 yuan) mark, and silver will follow gold and fluctuate strongly in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. Black - The shipping index (EC2508) is in short - term shock consolidation, and 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads can be considered. For steel (RB2510), industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore (I2509) fluctuates in the range of 700 - 745. Coke (J2509) has entered a new price cut stage, and coal prices may be in the bottom - seeking stage. Strategies such as long hot - rolled coils and short coke, long hot - rolled coils and short coking coal can be considered [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper (CU2506) should focus on the pressure level of 78000 - 79000, zinc (ZN2507) has strong upper pressure, and nickel (NI2506) and stainless steel (SS2507) maintain a weak shock. Tin (SN2506) should be treated with a bearish rebound approach [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude oil (SC2507) is affected by macro and geopolitical risks, and the WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [450, 510]. Urea (UR2509) has low market demand activity and short - term shock. PX (PX2509) and PTA (TA2509) are under short - term pressure, and short - fiber (PF2507), bottle - grade polyester chips (PR2507), ethanol (EG2509), etc. have different trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural - Soybean meal (M2509, RM509) is suppressed by arrival pressure, and the performance around 2900 should be observed. Live pigs (6095ZHT) are in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the 13500 support. Corn (C2507) is in a shock correction, and attention should be paid to the 2300 support. Palm oil may reach 8200. Other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own characteristics and trading suggestions [2]. Special Commodities - Glass (FG2509) is pessimistic in the market, and attention should be paid to the 1000 - point support. Rubber (RU2509) has risen slightly due to storage news, and the upper limit of the range can be lightly short - sold. Industrial silicon (Si2506) has broken through the position and fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon (PS2506) futures are falling in a shock, and long positions should be closed. Lithium carbonate (LC2507) is in a weak operation, and the main contract is expected to run between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 4372.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4514.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.27% increase [1] - Supply expectations are tightening due to reduced domestic supply, while polyester production remains high, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation [1][2] - The rebound in PTA prices is attributed to a temporary easing of market sentiment and expectations of marginal supply-demand improvements, although demand remains highly uncertain [1][2] Group 2 - Recent supply increases from companies like Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahuazhong have been offset by upcoming maintenance, leading to a potential decrease in supply [2] - Polyester production has seen a slight increase, but weaving rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region are declining, with textile orders affected by tariff issues [2] - PTA industry inventory continues to decrease, while downstream long filament inventory is rising, indicating a shift in inventory dynamics [2]