美元长期疲软趋势

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【环球财经】大华银行:美国就业数据意外走弱 料将强化美元长期疲软趋势
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 15:03
Group 1 - UOB's report indicates that the recent significant weakness in the US labor market, particularly the downward revision of non-farm employment data, has led to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, reinforcing the long-term downtrend of the US dollar [1] - The report highlights that the US non-farm employment growth for the past two months was revised down by 258,000, resulting in a drop in the average employment growth over the past three months from 150,000 to only 35,000, which has convinced the market of an impending shift by the Federal Reserve [1] - UOB maintains its forecast that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a total of 75 basis points this year, with reductions of 25 basis points expected in the FOMC meetings in September, October, and December [1] Group 2 - The report predicts that the Asian foreign exchange market will remain cautious until the third quarter of 2025 as the market reassesses the impact of tariff increases on regional economic and trade dynamics, but may stabilize in the fourth quarter with the onset of a new round of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Specifically for Singapore, following stronger-than-expected GDP performance in the second quarter, expectations for further easing by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) have moderated, with additional measures likely delayed until October 2025 or January 2026 [2] - The report forecasts that the USD/SGD exchange rate will stabilize at 1.29 by the fourth quarter of 2025, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to reach 7.17 in the same period [2]