1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position short - term long - buying on dips, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. Aluminum prices remain high due to macro - expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish. Suggest light - position short - term long - buying on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloys, the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and weak demand. Cast aluminum prices remain high - level volatile due to cost support. Suggest light - position short - term long - buying on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 25,640 yuan/ton, up 1,335 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 120 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract position is 362,833 lots, up 50,936 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum is - 63,980 lots, up 2,585 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.00, up 0.37; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory in the previous week is 197,053 tons, up 11,174 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt is 142,829 tons, up 1,377 tons [2] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,811 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 151 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 466,716 lots, down 14,519 lots; the total inventory of alumina is 222,487 tons, up 5,344 tons [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,785 yuan/ton, up 730 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 180 yuan, down 215 yuan; the main contract position is 8,845 lots, down 614 lots; the registered warehouse receipt in the previous week is 67,659 tons, up 125 tons; the inventory in the previous week is 72,433 tons, down 1,727 tons [2] - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,207 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 502,250 tons, down 3,025 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipt is 22,750 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 5.71 US dollars/ton, up 1.6 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,260 yuan/ton, up 390 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum is 23,830 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 1,380 yuan/ton, down 945 yuan [2] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina is - 256 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 24,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy is 365 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Pre - baked Anode**: The price in the northwest region is 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Alumina**: The monthly production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons; the monthly import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons; the monthly export volume is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the national monthly start - up rate is 83.49%, down 0.87%; the total monthly capacity utilization rate is 85.00%, down 1.51% [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 18,400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal waste is 18,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the monthly import volume of aluminum waste and scrap in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the monthly export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the monthly export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total monthly production capacity is 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the monthly start - up rate is 98.31%, up 0.10%; the social inventory in the previous week is 74.20 million tons, up 2.70 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The monthly production is 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the monthly export volume is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons; the total monthly built - in production capacity is 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly production is 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 29.38%, up 5.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.66%, up 3.78%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 19.88%, down 0.0298; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.85, down 0.2087 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US consumer confidence index in January decreased by 9.7 points month - on - month to 84.5, hitting a new low since 2014 [2] - The US population growth in 2025 slowed down significantly, increasing by only 1.8 million people, with a growth rate of 0.5% [2] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path to resume rate cuts is unclear [2] - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [2] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans decreased by 963.6 billion yuan; the balance of real estate development loans decreased by 357.5 billion yuan; the balance of personal housing loans decreased by 676.8 billion yuan [2] - The US has dispatched a large naval fleet to the direction of Iran, but hopes not to use force [2]