Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariff increases on U.S. inflation is expected to peak around the end of the year, as tariffs typically take several months to fully affect consumer prices [1] Economic Outlook - The core inflation rate in the U.S. is projected to be around 3.0% this year, which will compress real income and hinder economic growth [1] - The company anticipates that U.S. economic growth will further slow down but is expected to avoid recession, with a projected real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.0% for this year [1] - As tariff pressures ease, a rebound in growth to about 1.8% is expected next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Villeroy stated that the increase in U.S. tariffs is uncertain and is not expected to lead to a rise in inflation [1] Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the U.S. tariff increase could impact market expectations and economic forecasts [1] - Villeroy's comments suggest a cautious outlook on inflationary pressures stemming from international trade policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite an average base tariff of 10% in the United States and increased industry tariffs, Indian exports continue to demonstrate resilience [1] Group 1 - The Indian trade department highlights the ongoing strength of exports in the face of rising tariffs [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank warns that a further 10% increase in average tariffs by the United States could lead to a stagnation in global trade by the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The potential tariff increase is expected to have significant implications for global trade dynamics [1] - The forecast indicates that trade stagnation may arise as a direct consequence of U.S. tariff policies [1]