Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, supports the idea of easing monetary policy next month, with a reasonable expectation of two rate cuts this year [1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in July unexpectedly accelerated, marking the largest increase in three years, with a month-on-month rise of 0.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, both exceeding market expectations [1] - The rise in PPI indicates that businesses are passing on higher import costs associated with tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are far from over [1] Retail Sales Performance - U.S. retail sales in July exceeded expectations, driven by strong automobile sales and major online promotions, indicating increased consumer spending and boosting optimism about U.S. economic growth [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Daly noted that while the labor market is gradually slowing and the economy is decelerating, it has not yet stalled, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting potential rate cuts later this year [1] - Daly expressed concern about delaying necessary support for the labor market due to fears of persistent inflation, advocating for a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - However, she opposed the necessity of a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting, indicating that such a move would signal an emergency situation, which she does not believe is warranted given the current labor market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market's expectation for interest rate cuts has significantly cooled following the July FOMC meeting, with indications that a rate cut in September is unlikely [2][4][8] - The FOMC has maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, which aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions within the Fed have increased, with two members supporting a 25 basis point cut [2][15][16] - The statement regarding economic growth has softened, indicating a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, contrasting with previous assessments of robust expansion [2][16][17] Group 2 - Powell's press conference reflected a relatively neutral stance, acknowledging a slowdown in consumer spending while indicating that consumer conditions remain healthy [3][18][20] - The labor market is described as stable, with wage growth approaching sustainable long-term levels, although the unemployment rate's stability is partly due to synchronized declines in labor supply and demand [3][18][20] - Inflation dynamics have shifted, with service sector inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs and the gradual impact of restrictive monetary policy [3][20][21] Group 3 - Market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, with implied cuts for the year dropping from 1.848 to 1.445 times, and the probability of a September cut falling from 68% to 47% [4][21] - The dollar index has risen, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, reflecting a market interpretation of Powell's statements as leaning towards a hawkish stance [4][21] - The article suggests that political pressure is not a significant factor influencing the Fed's decisions, as Powell has maintained the Fed's independence despite external pressures [5][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The US economy shows resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.0% for Q2 2025, but underlying weaknesses in domestic demand are evident, with private sector final sales growth slowing to 1.2%, the lowest in two years [1][3][6] Economic Growth Analysis - The actual GDP for Q2 2025 rebounded to an annualized rate of 3.0%, influenced significantly by fluctuations in imports and inventory [2][6] - The contribution of private consumption to GDP remains strong, but fixed asset investments, particularly in real estate and construction, have seen consecutive quarters of negative growth [1][3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth dropped sharply from 7.6% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, contributing only 0.08 percentage points to GDP [3] - High interest rates have notably suppressed construction and residential investments, while equipment investment growth has also slowed [3][6] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending rebounded in Q2 but remains weaker compared to 2024, with contributions to GDP fluctuating [3][6] - Durable goods consumption showed recovery, while non-durable goods consumption significantly declined [3] Government Spending - Government spending increased by 0.4% in Q2, contributing minimally to GDP growth, primarily driven by a rise in defense spending [4][6] Future Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to face constraints in the second half of the year due to tight monetary policy and potential increases in tariffs, which could further suppress growth and raise inflation [4][6] - The "Great Beautiful Act" introduced by Trump may provide some support to economic growth, potentially increasing GDP by 0.5% by 2026 [5][6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is anticipated to rise structurally in the second half of 2025, delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][6] - The potential for increased tariffs poses additional risks to both consumer purchasing power and corporate profits, which may further inhibit investment and spending [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has significantly reduced expectations for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood dropping from over 65% to around 40% following Chairman Powell's comments [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased risks to employment goals [7]. - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [8]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, supporting the view that the labor market is gradually cooling [9]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's future monetary policy remains uncertain, heavily reliant on upcoming employment and inflation data [11]. - Powell highlighted the importance of timing in policy actions, warning against acting too late or too early in response to inflation [12]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may delay rate cuts longer than the market expects, with potential cuts occurring later in the year [12][13]. Group 4: Political and Economic Influences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with concerns about political interference potentially impacting monetary policy decisions [14]. - Historical precedents suggest that a lack of independence can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain its autonomy [14].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%[3] - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[6] - The assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace"[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with half of the new jobs contributed by the government, indicating a slowdown in private sector job growth[7] - The labor force participation rate has declined, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market[11] - Consumer spending may have started to decline, with Q2 private domestic final purchases showing the lowest annualized growth rate since Q1 2023[13] Group 3: Inflation and Market Reactions - Inflation showed signs of rebounding in June, driven by rising energy and core commodity prices, while core services inflation remained stable[11] - Following the press conference, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped from over 60% to below 50%[14] - The uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high, with short-term inflation risks persisting due to tariff policies[14] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and greater-than-expected economic downturns[15] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued slowing growth in the U.S. economy, influenced by policy and economic uncertainties[13]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% after the July FOMC meeting, indicating a low probability of rate cuts in September[2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, significantly higher than Q1's -0.5% and above the 2024 forecast of 2.8%[6] - A 30% decline in imports contributed positively to GDP growth, while private investment negatively impacted GDP by 3.1% in Q2[6] Employment and Inflation - The labor market remains solid, with an average monthly job addition of 150,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%[9] - Inflation is still above the 2% target, with Powell noting that service sector inflation is easing but tariffs are pushing up prices on certain goods[12][13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is low, with Powell emphasizing the need for more economic data to assess the impact of tariffs[14] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on price stability and maximum employment, rather than economic growth alone[14] - There were dissenting votes from two Fed officials advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 2020 that more than one official opposed Powell[14] Future Projections - The Fed may delay rate cuts until Q4, as it requires additional economic data to evaluate the effects of recent tariff negotiations[15] - If trade agreements are reached by August, the earliest potential rate cut could occur in October[15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, despite pressure from President Trump for a reduction [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut [4]. - This marks a rare occurrence where both the President and a Federal Reserve member publicly advocate for a rate cut, reflecting the pressure from Trump on Fed Chairman Powell [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators show a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, with the unemployment rate remaining low and inflation still high, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [5][6]. - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, significantly higher than the first quarter's -0.5%, but this growth was primarily due to a reduction in imports rather than a robust economic recovery [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Powell indicated that the decision for the September meeting will depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, suggesting that no immediate rate cut is guaranteed [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term inflation risks, the overall economic growth is expected to continue slowing, with potential rate cuts later in the year [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on July 29-30 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a near-zero probability of a rate cut in July and less than 60% for September, primarily due to the recent CPI data indicating the inflation effects of tariffs [1] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a potential shift in policy considerations, with some members supporting a rate cut while others advocate for maintaining current rates due to rising inflation concerns from tariffs [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is diminishing, as recent agreements with Japan and the EU suggest a potential stabilization of tariff levels, which could reduce the Fed's concerns regarding inflation and influence their decision-making [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are not showing significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a projected PCE inflation growth of 2.5% year-on-year, and core PCE at 2.7% [3] - Research indicates that excluding tariff impacts, U.S. inflation has been close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that the inflationary pressure from tariffs may not be as significant as previously thought [3] - If consumers absorb one-third of the new tariffs, a permanent 10% increase in tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 0.3 percentage points this year, but this effect is expected to dissipate by next year [3] Group 3: Employment and Economic Growth - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [4] - The private sector's employment situation is critical for understanding economic momentum, and recent adjustments suggest that previous job growth figures may have been overestimated [4] - Economic indicators such as retail sales and PMI show stability, but sectors sensitive to interest rates, like manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Independence - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with external pressures from the Trump administration advocating for rate cuts [5] - A rate cut in July could be perceived as yielding to political pressure, while a refusal to cut rates when appropriate could undermine the Fed's independence [5] - The possibility of postponing a rate cut until September is being considered by some FOMC members, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with current trading around the support levels established previously [1][4] - COMEX gold prices have declined to $3371.3 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.77%, while domestic SHFE gold prices are reported at 778.08 yuan per gram, down 0.78% [3] - The latest PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below expectations, while the services PMI is at 55.2, indicating a reliance on the service sector for economic growth [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart suggests that gold prices are expected to remain within the range of $3000 to $3500 for the second half of the year, with potential upward movement anticipated next year [4] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on the support and resistance levels, with key support identified at $3350 or $3335 and resistance at $3382 or $3393 [5]