在就业市场方面，经济学家预计美国新增就业岗位将维持在历史偏低水平，月度新增约六万四千个工作岗位，虽略高于今年末水平，但远低于近年常态。失 业率预计将在明年初升至百分之四点五，并在全年维持在这一区间。 通胀形势依然复杂。经济学家预测今年底美国通胀率将回落至百分之二点九，略低于上月预期，而明年仅能小幅下降至百分之二点六。调查显示，新一轮进 口关税预计将为通胀率贡献零点二五至零点七个百分点。 调查结果显示，经济学家对明年美国经济增速的中值预期升至百分之二，较十月调查提高零点二个百分点，与半年前仅百分之一点三的预测形成鲜明对比。 多数受访者认为，个人消费增长与企业投资扩张将成为推动经济的主要动力，但几乎全体经济学家一致预期现行关税政策将至少拖累经济增长零点二五个百 分点。 这份最新发布的专业预测报告指出，从风险概率和潜在影响两方面评估，关税冲击被视为美国经济前景面临的最显著下行压力。与此同时，移民政策收紧预 计也将抑制经济增长步伐，而生产率提升则被视作最可能推动经济超预期表现的关键因素。 全美商业经济协会最新调查显示，专业预测人士普遍上调对美国经济增长的展望，但同时指出美国就业市场疲软与关税政策可能对经济扩张形成制约 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月23日丨白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，新的美联储领导层可能会降息。可能会 在新年的前后决定美联储主席（的任命）。美国第四季度经济预计将增长1.5%至2%。 ...

11月21日，美国三大股指全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数涨1.08%报46245.41点，标普500指数涨0.98%报6602.99点，纳斯达克指数涨0.88%报22273.08点。本 周，道琼斯工业指数跌1.91%，标普500指数跌1.95%，纳斯达克指数跌2.74%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46245.41 | 493.15 | 1.08% | 8.70% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22273.08 | 195.03 | 0.88% | 15.34% | | 标普500 | 6602.99 | 64.23 | 0.98% | 12.26% | 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.8%报23091.87点，法国CAC40指数涨0.02%报7982.65点，英国富时100指数涨0.13%报9539.71点。本周， 德国DAX指数跌3.29%，法国CAC40指数跌2.29%，英国富时100指数跌1.64%。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.23%。个股方面，涂鸦智能涨超6% ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has slightly risen to around 99.55 during the Asian trading session, primarily driven by the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks [2] - Market sentiment has improved as investors anticipate the passage of government funding legislation, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a mild recovery in the dollar against major currencies [2] - The fluctuations in the dollar index are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal policy developments, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown weakness, putting pressure on growth momentum, with U.S. consumer confidence dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November [3] - The labor market is also showing signs of cooling, with private sector employment decreasing by an average of approximately 11,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, indicating declining confidence in hiring [3] - Market focus is on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may provide signals regarding future interest rate directions, influencing the dollar's short-term volatility [3] Group 3 - Some forex strategists suggest that the easing of government shutdown risks is more of a short-term sentiment driver, while the medium-term outlook for the dollar will depend on actual economic data performance [4] - Key indicators such as inflation pressure, employment changes, and manufacturing activity will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy [4] - International factors, including the relatively loose monetary policies in the Eurozone and Japan, provide some support for the dollar, but a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, predicts a significant rebound in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of next year, driven by several positive factors including the end of government shutdowns, gradual implementation of fiscal support measures, the effects of previous interest rate cuts, and a moderately relaxed regulatory environment [1] Economic Outlook - Musalem emphasizes that the anticipated economic activity boost is expected to accelerate growth [1] - He notes that the current monetary policy is nearing a level where it no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking economic imbalance [3] Inflation Concerns - Musalem reaffirms a strong commitment to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target, highlighting that approximately 40% of current inflation is driven by tariff factors [4] - He points out persistent challenges from rising service prices and increasing financial pressure on middle- and low-income households, evidenced by a rise in reliance on food assistance and utility bill aid [4] Employment Market - Despite a slowdown in labor conditions and a potential temporary rise in unemployment due to government shutdowns, Musalem expects overall employment to remain stable near "full employment" levels [5] - Concerns are raised regarding high asset valuations, with reference to the Federal Reserve's recent Financial Stability Report indicating that U.S. housing prices and financial markets remain elevated compared to historical standards [5] Policy Balance - Musalem's statements highlight the challenge faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing economic growth support with inflation control, suggesting that policymakers will need to carefully assess data to ensure decisions promote recovery while maintaining price stability [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government is experiencing a record "shutdown," impacting various sectors and delaying the release of key economic data [1] - The Senate voted on a motion to fund certain federal employees during the "shutdown," which did not pass [1] - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that the economic impact of the "shutdown" could reduce fourth-quarter growth expectations by about half [1] Group 2 - The University of Michigan reported that the preliminary consumer confidence index for November dropped to 50.3, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October [1] - On the same day, over 1,000 flights were canceled and more than 4,400 flights were delayed in the U.S. due to the "shutdown" [2] - The U.S. Transportation Secretary warned that if the "shutdown" continues, the flight cancellation rate could reach 15% to 20% nationwide [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is expected to grow close to 4% in the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, anticipates that the U.S. economy will grow close to 4% in the third quarter [1] Economic Growth - The projected economic growth rate of nearly 4% indicates a strong performance for the U.S. economy in the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is expected to grow close to 4% in the third quarter, as stated by the Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett [1] Economic Growth - The anticipated growth rate of nearly 4% indicates a strong performance for the U.S. economy in the third quarter [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4%[4] - The Fed will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, gradually replacing MBS with short-term Treasury bonds[4] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding rate cuts, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Employment risks are rising, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% in August, the highest since late 2021[8] - Inflation remains elevated, with the core CPI falling by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September[8] - Economic growth is described as expanding at a moderate pace, a revision from previous assessments of slowing growth[13] Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped significantly from over 90% to below 60%[14] - The lack of recent economic data due to government shutdowns is causing uncertainty in Fed decision-making[14] - The stock market indices fell, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased following the Fed's announcements[14] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in inflation and tighter monetary policy from the Fed[14] - The overall economic outlook suggests a continued weakening in the labor market and consumer spending due to tariffs and economic uncertainty[13]