11月2日，美国国防部长赫格塞思突然改口，说中美关系处在一个非常好的状态，这句话来得太突然，因为前几天他还在亚洲强调对中国要"保持军事压 力"。 态度转变如此之快，但结合近期美国国内的局势，这种"变脸"并不难理解，与其说是中美关系突然转暖，不如说是美国自己坐不住了。 从政府停摆、军队不满到党派斗争全面升级，特朗普政府正面临一场内外交困的考验，而这场考验，已经让它无暇在外交战线上继续高举大旗。 如果说一国的对外政策是由实力决定的，那么此刻的美国显然没多少余力去"强硬"，政府停摆持续已久，影响已经不是"技术性"层面，而是一场实质性的治 理危机。 联邦机构瘫痪，关键民生项目停发，全国上下陷入混乱，最直接受冲击的，是那些靠联邦补助维持日常生活的家庭，尤其是底层工薪群体。 街头的救济站人满为患，不少地方的低收入群体已经开始依靠慈善组织度日，更让白宫头疼的是军队内部的情绪。 虽然战斗部队的核心人员依然按时领薪，但大量岗位职工因为预算冻结处于无薪状态，这不仅打击了军人家庭的士气，也对军队的稳定性构成了挑战。 一些军属在社交平台上表达不满，甚至有人质疑"国家是否还值得他们为之奉献"，这类声音虽然不多，却在军内军外引发了强烈反 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. government has overestimated the impact of tariffs on China, as indicated by a corporate executive's statement that China has not made any calls to the U.S. [1] - The U.S. consumers are expected to feel the pain from tariff policies in the coming weeks, particularly affecting small businesses and low-income groups, with a distribution cycle of imported goods being approximately 8 weeks [3] - A collective lawsuit from 13 states against the Trump administration's tariffs indicates significant political and economic divisions within the U.S., with claims that tariffs have led to increased household expenses and reduced availability of goods [3] Group 2 - President Trump claims that his tariff measures will help reduce income taxes for individuals earning less than $200,000, although economists have expressed skepticism about this assertion [5] - There are signs of a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards China, with a reduction in the influence of hawkish elements within the government, suggesting a potential move from extreme pressure to a more pragmatic approach [6] - The ongoing tariff situation has resulted in significant negative consequences for the U.S., including high inflation, declining consumer confidence, and a fractured political landscape [8]