Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that as inflation retreats from its peak and the economy shows resilience, the emergency phase is declared over, leading to increased market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential easing of monetary policy in the coming year [1][14]. Group 2 - In 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts, each by 25 basis points, resulting in a policy interest rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of the year [5][17]. - The first rate cut occurred on September 17, 2025, reducing the rate to 4.00% to 4.25% [2][15]. The second cut was on October 29, 2025, lowering it to 3.75% to 4.00% [3][16]. The final cut took place on December 10, 2025 [4][17]. Group 3 - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi suggests that while the market is optimistic about potential future rate cuts, the economic conditions are delicate, with low layoffs but a slowdown in job creation and a slight increase in unemployment [6][18]. - Zandi describes the current U.S. economic situation as "fragile growth," where the impressive GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025 does not fully reflect the economic reality [9][21]. - The non-farm payroll data for November 2025 showed only an increase of 64,000 jobs, indicating stagnation in job growth since April [8][20]. Group 4 - Inflation remains a complex issue, with Zandi noting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is closer to 3% rather than the Federal Reserve's target, complicating the rate cut timeline [12][25]. - The CPI for November 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.6%, both above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [12][25].