Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that a weak labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns could steer policy in a different direction [1] Group 1 - The actual labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue that could counterbalance the potential for rate cuts, indicating a complex policy environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market has essentially reached its targets, allowing the Federal Reserve to shift its focus primarily to inflation issues [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation is reinforced by the current state of the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation issues caused by tariffs are more about the timing of their impact rather than whether they will occur [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Bostic emphasizes that the discussion around tariffs is centered on when inflation will manifest, indicating a consensus that inflation is inevitable due to these economic policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, emphasized the importance of not allowing tariff issues to escalate into inflation problems [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Implications - Macklem highlighted that tariffs should not be allowed to contribute to inflationary pressures, indicating a proactive stance on managing economic stability [1] Policy Recommendations - The Bank of Canada is focused on ensuring that trade policies do not adversely affect inflation, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of tariff impacts on the economy [1]

新华财经上海6月4日电（葛佳明）近期，大类资产市场走势出现了一系列与传统定价机制相悖的状况。 黄金与美债传统收益率的负相关关系失效，美债收益率持续走强，美元则走弱，而美股却在美债收益率 不断上升的状况下持续上行。 美国"股债汇"定价模式转变背后，可以窥见美国的短期通胀问题与长期债务风险，投资者对于美国信用 的担忧，进而令美元承压，而对美股来说，投资者可能更关注市场中的流动性状况，定价的"锚点"正脱 离传统利率水平。 美元、美债走势大幅背离 从历史上看，美债收益率与美元走势通常呈现出同向波动的情况。当美国经济运行良好时，企业盈利攀 升，推动股市等风险资产吸引力上升，使得美债需求下降，美债收益率攀升。在上述情况下，美元也会 同步受益于美国经济的强劲状况，国际资本进一步涌入，增加美元的需求。 但自今年4月以来，因美国关税政策反复，美国10年期国债收益率已从4.16%升至4.42%，而美元指数则 下跌超5%。美元汇率与美债收益率之间的关联性降至近三年最低水平。 一方面，2025财年（2024年10月到2025年4月）以来，美国财政赤字规模整体超预期，而关税以及美国 总统特朗普的减税法案则会对未来的赤字路径产生影响，预 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the financial situation of American consumers remains stable, their outlook on the future economy is cautious, reflecting a mix of stability and concern [1][3][7] - Approximately 73% of American adults reported their financial situation as "fair" or "comfortable," a figure that remains consistent with 2023 but slightly lower than the 78% recorded in 2021, indicating a stable yet not historically high perception of financial health [1][3] - The percentage of adults able to cover an unexpected expense of $400 remains stable at 63%, similar to previous years, highlighting ongoing economic vulnerability despite a relatively high percentage [1][3] Group 2 - Only 29% of respondents believe the economic situation in 2024 will be "good" or "excellent," a slight increase from 2023 but significantly lower than the 50% recorded in 2019, suggesting persistent long-term economic concerns among consumers [3][7] - The proportion of adults who feel their financial situation has worsened compared to the previous year is 29%, down from a peak of 35% in 2022, yet still above pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing economic pressure [3][7] - Inflation remains a significant challenge for consumers, particularly with rising prices for food and everyday goods, although the percentage of those affected has decreased compared to 2023, suggesting improved adaptability among consumers [7] Group 3 - Housing affordability continues to be a pressing issue, with median rent increasing by approximately 10% annually since 2022, leading to greater financial strain on many households [7] - The survey reflects complex consumer emotions in the face of an uncertain economic environment, with stable financial conditions juxtaposed against low confidence in future economic prospects [7] - High prices and housing pressures are identified as the most prominent challenges in the current economy, emphasizing the need for policymakers to address these issues while maintaining economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by U.S. Vice President Vance, indicating a lack of effective response to the current economic challenges [1][6][7] - Recent economic data from the U.S. shows a contraction in GDP by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2022, contrasting sharply with previous growth rates of 3.1% and 2.4% in Q3 and Q4 of last year respectively [3][4] - The uncertainty in international trade policies, particularly due to tariffs implemented during the Trump administration, has led to a significant decline in consumer confidence, with the index dropping from 57 in March to 50.8, the lowest in 12 years [4][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the third consecutive time reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty [6][7] - The "Beige Book" report from the Federal Reserve indicates minimal changes in economic activity, with the term "tariffs" mentioned 107 times, highlighting the pervasive uncertainty affecting business decisions [4][6] - The combination of weak economic growth, persistent inflation, and trade policy uncertainties suggests that the current policy measures may not be achieving the desired outcomes, raising questions about future adjustments by the Federal Reserve [7]

美联储将于当地时间5月7日（北京时间5月8日2:00）发布5月的利率决议。目前市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动。 市场普遍预计今晚美联储将维持利率不变。CME美联储观察的数据显示，此次决议降息的概率仅为1%，维持当前利率不变的概率为99%。 CME美联储观察利率 即使当天维持利率不变，市场仍然希望能从会议声明以及新闻发布会上获得更多信息，特别是关税影响以及未来降息路径的指引上。 美联储主席鲍威尔将于决议公布30分钟后举行新闻发布会，预计关税和通胀问题将是他回答的重点，同时投资者也在期望他如何解释不急于调整利率的主要 原因。 市场上，美股三大股指小幅高开，其中，道指涨0.36%，纳指涨0.06%，标普500指数涨0.15%。 宏观数据坚挺美联储难降息 预计美联储在会后声明中将对经济状况描述进行调整。由于第一季度GDP受进口驱动出现萎缩，委员会将无法重申整体经济活动"继续稳步扩张"。摩根大通 预计，美联储将下调对经济活动的评估——表明经济活动已"放缓"，而非"继续以稳健的速度扩张"。 但目前美国各项经济数据尚属坚挺，除了一季度GDP出现萎缩外，3月通胀数据有所缓和，4月失业率保持稳定。数据显示，美联储最爱的通胀指标降 ...