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美国统计机构独立性
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数据“难看”特朗普解雇劳工统计局局长,美统计机构独立性遭威胁?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 10:55
Core Points - The independence of key federal agencies in the U.S. is facing significant challenges, particularly with the abrupt dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump, who accused the agency of manipulating employment data for political purposes [1][3] - The July employment report showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 104,000, and substantial downward revisions to previous months' data [3][4] - The integrity of U.S. economic statistics is under threat, with experts warning that the politicization of data could lead to public distrust in the accuracy of economic indicators [3][4] Employment Data Analysis - The BLS reported a notable decline in job growth over the past three months, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June [3][4] - The challenges in interpreting the July employment data stem from difficulties in accurately measuring labor supply and demand, particularly during economic transitions [4][5] - The BLS has faced funding shortages and declining response rates for surveys, which could impact the quality and diversity of employment data [5][6] Federal Reserve Personnel Changes - Trump's actions against the BLS coincide with growing concerns about the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly regarding Chairman Powell's monetary policy [6][7] - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may accelerate the process of selecting Powell's successor, with potential implications for the Fed's decision-making environment [6][8] - If multiple personnel changes occur, Trump could appoint a majority of the Federal Reserve Board, which would significantly influence monetary policy discussions and regulatory approaches [7][8]