从目前的形势看，特朗普总统会逐步实现它掌控美联储的愿望。如果是这样，那么未来美元大幅走软将 是显而易见的结果，美国联邦基金利率水平也会大幅下调。泛滥的美元会再一次在美国资本市场，乃至 全球资本市场兴风作浪。 媒体报道，美国总统特朗普以涉嫌抵押贷款违规为由宣布解除美联储非洲裔女性理事库克的职务。 在随后的声明中，库克表示特朗普解除其美联储理事职务非法。不过，无论此次库克的职务是否真正能 够被特朗普总统解除，市场都更加担忧美联储在货币政策上的独立性会受到进一步的侵蚀。 一段时间以来，特朗普总统在不断地施压美联储尽快降息。而美联储主席鲍威尔则以关税政策可能引发 的通货膨胀反弹为由拒绝降息。不过，在刚刚结束的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，鲍威尔在降息问题上谨慎 松口。可是，对于特朗普总统来说，这似乎还远远不够，他希望能够完全掌控美联储的货币政策走向。 为此，特朗普总统必须保证在美联储中有足够的"自己人"。 正如笔者在先前文章中阐述的，随着特朗普总统逐步掌控美联储，美国资本市场会回到2008年金融危机 前的戏码，表面的繁荣背后隐藏着巨大的风险。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据 ...

财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Besant）公开呼吁应实施"一系列降息"，而特朗普总统也加大了对美联 储主席鲍威尔的批评力度，指责其货币政策不利于经济增长。更有甚者，政府方面还提出可能就美联储 总部翻新工程发起法律行动，进一步施压央行。分析认为，此类政治干预不仅可能削弱美联储货币政策 独立性和市场公信力，若持续发酵，还将加剧市场对政策受非经济因素干扰的担忧，从而对美元汇率构 成额外的下行压力。 昨日，美元指数上涨在98.35之下遇阻，下跌在97.90之上受到支持，意味着美元短线下跌后有可能保持 上涨的走势。如果美元指数今天下跌在98.00之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向98.45--98.55之间。 周三（8月20日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.43，涨幅0.15%，开盘价为98.28。美联储正面临日益 加剧的政治压力。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, precious metal prices showed overall strength. COMEX gold prices rose 3.29% to $3,482.7 per ounce, and SHFE gold prices rose 1.84% to 787.8 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 3.63% to $38.53 per ounce, and SHFE silver prices rose 2.63% to 9,278 yuan per kilogram [11]. - The confirmation of the new voting member of the Fed has further impacted its monetary policy independence. Trump appointed Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, and the probability of current Fed governor Waller becoming the new Fed chair has increased. Trump has criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates [11]. - Economic data indicates a weakening US economy. The non - farm payroll data in July was significantly lower than expected, and economic data in August has also turned weak. After the release of non - farm data, Fed voting members' monetary policy stances have turned dovish [11]. - The market has increased its expectations for the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips in precious metal strategies. The reference operating range for SHFE gold is 777 - 801 yuan per gram, and for SHFE silver is 9,081 - 9,520 yuan per kilogram [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Performance**: COMEX gold prices rose 3.29% to $3,482.7 per ounce, SHFE gold prices rose 1.84% to 787.8 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 3.63% to $38.53 per ounce, SHFE silver prices rose 2.63% to 9,278 yuan per kilogram [11]. - **Fed Independence**: Trump's appointment of Milan and the potential appointment of Waller have affected the Fed's independence, increasing pressure for interest rate cuts [11]. - **Economic Data**: US non - farm payroll data in July was weak, and economic data in August has also deteriorated. Fed voting members have turned dovish [11]. - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to implement further loose monetary policies. Precious metal strategies suggest buying on dips, with reference ranges for SHFE gold at 777 - 801 yuan per gram and SHFE silver at 9,081 - 9,520 yuan per kilogram [11]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price and Index**: The US dollar index and related precious metal prices are presented in graphs. Precious metal prices showed overall strength this month, with gold and silver prices rising [29]. - **Position Performance**: Gold positions were strong, with COMEX gold total positions rising 1.74% to 445,300 lots and SHFE gold total positions rising 12.87% to 441,900 lots. Silver positions were weaker, with COMEX silver total positions rising 4.13% to 170,300 lots and SHFE silver total positions falling 18.06% to 784,200 lots [31][34]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 29, COMEX gold management fund net long positions decreased by 25,678 lots to 134,300 lots, and COMEX silver management fund net positions decreased by 990 lots to 43,000 lots [36]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold and silver ETF total positions continued to rise, with gold ETF total positions at 2,167.1 tons and silver ETF total positions at 27,434.8 tons as of August 7 [39]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Yield Curve**: Graphs show the US 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yield spreads and short - term Treasury yields [50]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Graphs present the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal and real interest rates, and inflation expectations [52]. - **Fed Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet monthly changes are detailed, and this month, the Treasury TGA account balance increased, deposit reserve scale decreased, and US dollar liquidity tightened [54][57]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, lower than expected [62]. - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2 was 226,000, higher than expected [65]. - **PMI & PPI**: US ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, below the boom - bust line and lower than expected. ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also lower than expected [68]. - **New Home Data**: US new home starts in June were 1.321 million units, higher than expected, and building permits were 1.397 million units, also higher than expected [71]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Base Spreads**: Graphs show gold and silver TD - SHFE base spreads, as well as gold and silver internal and external spreads [74][76][79]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: Graphs show silver inventories from various sources, including Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [87][89][90]. - **Gold Inventories**: Graphs show COMEX and LBMA gold inventories [91].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's nomination of his camp members as "temporary" Fed governors will impact the Fed's independence in the short - term, supporting gold and silver prices [2] - Trump's appointment of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor and the rising probability of Waller becoming the new Fed chair, along with lower - than - expected employment data, make it certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [2][3] - It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 777 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.26% to 785.44 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.43% to 9241.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.99% to 3488.00 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.93% to 38.65 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 98.00 [2] - For gold, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX was 3482.70 dollars/ounce, up 1.48%; the trading volume was 24.34 million lots, up 69.43%; the open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%. For silver, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX was 38.53 dollars/ounce, up 1.57%; the open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93% [6] Market Outlook - Trump's personnel appointments put strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence, and combined with poor employment data, the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] Investment Strategy - Recommend buying precious metals on dips, with the reference range for Shanghai gold's main contract being 777 - 801 yuan/gram and for Shanghai silver's main contract being 9081 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3]

Group 1 - The current trajectory of U.S. fiscal policy is unsustainable, with warnings from former Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner highlighting deeper issues such as federal fiscal unsustainability and political dysfunction in Washington [1][3] - Paulson emphasized that if political gridlock continues and fiscal deficits worsen, market patience will eventually run out, indicating a potential systemic shock to the bond market [3] - Geithner noted that while current bond yields are reasonable, market confidence is conditional on the independence of the Federal Reserve, the rule of law, and fiscal discipline [3][4] Group 2 - The passive safety of U.S. Treasuries relies heavily on the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and the liquidity of U.S. debt, but this advantage is not guaranteed [3] - The trend of de-dollarization and diversification of reserve assets by major economies could lead to a more rapid and direct impact on U.S. fiscal conditions, potentially undermining the market position of U.S. Treasuries [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is under scrutiny, as political and inflationary pressures may force the central bank to prioritize short-term fiscal needs, which could lead to a reassessment of U.S. debt's credit premium [4][5] Group 3 - Long-term market confidence in U.S. Treasuries will depend on the governance system's ability to restore rationality and self-correct under pressure, rather than on isolated events like interest rate hikes or budget negotiations [5] - If the U.S. government fails to re-establish a balance between fiscal and policy measures at the institutional level, trust in the U.S. financial system may undergo significant reevaluation [5]

来源：第一财经 美国多个关键联邦机构的独立性正面临严峻挑战。 当地时间8月1日，在美国7月就业报告发布仅数小时后，美国总统特朗普突然宣布解雇美国劳工统计局 （BLS）局长麦肯塔弗（Erika McEntarfer），称后者"将由一位更有能力、更合格的人接替。" 他在声明中称，这些数据是"被操控过的，目的是让共和党和我看起来糟糕"，"这样的重要数据必须公 正、准确，不能被出于政治目的操控"。 美国劳工部当日晚间确认，麦肯塔弗已被解职，副局长维亚特罗夫斯基（William Wiatrowski）将担任 BLS代理局长。 在麦肯塔弗被解雇后不久，美联储理事库格勒（Adriana Kugler）宣布将在任期于明年1月结束前提前辞 职。由于现任美联储主席鲍威尔将在明年5月卸任，这一变动为特朗普任命鲍威尔的继任者创造了条 件。 特朗普很快进一步施压，称总是"太晚（行动）"的鲍威尔也应该辞职，"就像拜登任命的库格勒辞职一 样。她知道他在利率问题上做错了事。" 不应迁怒就业数据的"信使" 美国劳工统计局7月就业报告显示，过去三个月就业增长明显放缓。7月全美仅新增7.3万个岗位，远低 于市场预期的10.4万。报告还对5月和6月 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫（特朗普政府）尊重美联储（在货币政策方面）的独立性。 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫（特朗普政府）尊重美联储（在货币政策方面）的独立性。 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 7 月 FOMC：降息预期继续推迟 证券研究报告 7 月美联储议息会议点评 7 月 FOMC：会议声明偏鸽，鲍威尔依旧谨慎 7 月美联储议息会议将联邦基金目标利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%的区间，符合市 场预期，是去年 12 月降息之后，连续第 5 次按兵不动。 会议声明：偏鸽派，指出经济放缓风险。会议声明删除了"经济活动持续 稳健扩张"，改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放缓"；删除了"经济前景的 不确定性有所减弱"；反映出相比于 6 月，委员会对经济前景的担忧上升。 美联储主席鲍威尔表态：温和鹰派。一方面，对 9 月降息保持谨慎，表示 尚未就 9 月利率做出任何决定，无法在下次会议上依据 6 月的点阵图（即 今年一共降息 50 bp）来做决策。 另一方面，强调对通胀担忧，表示商品通胀正在上升，关税正在推高一些 商品价格，核心通胀中有 30%或 40%来自关税，合理的基本预期是关税对通 胀造成短期影响。 降息预期推迟，9 月降息的概率跌破 50%。根据美联储观察工具，FOMC 会议结束后，市场预期 9 月维持利率不变的概率升至 54.8%（1 天前为 35.4%）；预期年内只有 1 ...