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中信证券评美国4月CPI:不易持久的“好数据”
news flash· 2025-05-14 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the U.S. CPI growth in April was moderate and below expectations, with certain goods' prices reflecting the impact of tariffs imposed by the White House. The overall year-on-year growth of 2.3% may represent the low point for the year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The static assessment suggests that if the tariffs remain unchanged following the U.S.-China joint statement on May 12, the cumulative effect of the tariffs could increase the U.S. PCE deflator index by approximately 0.85% [1] - The long-term impact of these tariffs is projected to drag down the U.S. GDP size by about 0.3% [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The Trump administration would need to reduce the average price of prescription drugs by at least 30% to offset the inflationary effects of its tariff measures [1] - The visibility of U.S. tariff levels appears to be stabilizing, which is seen as a positive development for risk assets such as U.S. stocks [1] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar may receive support in the near term due to the recovering visibility of trade policies [1] - The company remains cautious regarding U.S. Treasury bonds [1]