铝季报 宏观偏乐观 铝价下方存支撑 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-9-26 中航期货 目录 01 行情回顾 03 基本面 02 宏观面 04 后市研判 第三阶段（4月中旬-至今）震荡上行。在美 国关税政策落地后，国内开展了一系列反击 措施，市场信心重新恢复，电解铝价格在触 底后逐步反弹，后续几内亚铝土矿供应扰动 消息、美联储降息预期以及反内卷政策等因 素，不断推涨电解铝的价格重心。 第一阶段（1月-3月中旬）震荡上 行。在这一阶段，美联储降息预期 升温、特朗普上台以及贸易担忧情 绪衰退等因素使得市场宏观情绪整 体向好，叠加春节的节前备货需 求、节后的需求旺季以及社会库存 的去库，共同助长电解铝价格。 第二阶段（3月下旬-4月上旬）震 荡下行。此时，市场上对于美联储 的降息预期逐渐消退，对特朗普上 台后的关税政策担忧则逐步显现， 在清明假期后，电解铝期货主力合 约价格触及年内低点。 除关税因素影响 外 基本维持震荡偏强的走势 PART 01 行情回顾 美联储重启降息 流动性进一步走向宽松 | 2 | 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | | T ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the report's industry investment rating. Core View of the Report Benefiting from the 90-day extension of the China-US trade tariff negotiations, the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and better-than-expected new car sales in the rubber market's downstream, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend in August 2025. The macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the future, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [6][7][140]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of the Domestic Rubber Futures Trend in August 2025 In August 2025, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract rose from 15,075 yuan/ton to around 15,900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.42%. The standard rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 12,090 yuan/ton to around 12,800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.87%. The synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 11,320 yuan/ton to around 12,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.00% [6][11]. 2. Improvement in the Macro Environment and Increasing Expectation of a Fed Rate Cut In August 2025, the overseas macro environment remained optimistic. The short-term China-US tariff risk was temporarily removed. Trump's nomination of Fed officials and the current inflation and employment data in the US indicate that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is as high as 91.5% [22][23][24]. 3. Stable Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 In July 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Although the manufacturing PMI declined slightly, other economic indicators showed positive trends. The total industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 387.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The total import and export volume of goods was 3.9102 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [37][38][39]. 4. Overseas Rubber Producing Areas in the Peak Harvest Season with Rising Supply Pressure Since 2010, the planting area of natural rubber in Southeast Asian countries has generally increased, but the unit yield has declined due to low rubber prices. According to seasonal patterns, the supply pressure will gradually increase from May to November. In June 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 911,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 48,800 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 50,000 tons. It is expected that the global natural rubber production may decrease by about 5% in 2025 [62][63][66]. 5. A Significant Increase in the Premium Spread between Shanghai Rubber, Standard Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber In August 2025, the spread between Shanghai rubber, standard rubber, and synthetic rubber widened steadily. The premium of the Shanghai rubber futures main contract over the synthetic futures main contract increased from 2,925 yuan/ton to 4,035 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 37.95%. It is expected that the spreads between Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber, and between Shanghai rubber and standard rubber may maintain a high premium in the future [93][94]. 6. Mixed Sales in the Overseas Automobile Market in July 2025 In July 2025, the US automobile sales increased year-on-year, with a total of 1.4072 million vehicles sold, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The European automobile market declined slightly in June, with new car registrations decreasing by 5.1% year-on-year. In July, the Japanese automobile sales decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Overall, the overseas automobile market sales were mixed in July 2025 [97][98]. 7. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Automobile Production and Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 12%. It is expected that the domestic automobile market will maintain a growth trend in the second half of 2025 [104][105][108]. 8. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Heavy Truck Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's heavy truck sales reached about 83,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 11%. It is expected that the heavy truck sales may exceed 1 million vehicles in 2025. New energy heavy trucks continued to lead the market, and natural gas heavy trucks showed signs of recovery [114][116][117]. 9. A Decline in Domestic Tire Production and a Slight Increase in Natural Rubber Imports In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 94.364 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The tire exports were 66.65 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to July, China imported a total of 4.709 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The social inventory of natural rubber showed a seasonal upward trend [121][122][125]. 10. Summary Looking ahead to September 2025, the macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [140].

Core Insights - The article discusses the import and export trends of aluminum-related products in China for July 2025, highlighting the resilience of aluminum exports despite global trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States [1]. Group 1: Bauxite Imports - Bauxite imports reached 20.06 million tons in July, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [2]. - Imports from Guinea accounted for 15.94 million tons, up 19.6% month-on-month and 52.0% year-on-year, while imports from Australia were 3.13 million tons, up 3.9% month-on-month but down 19.4% year-on-year [2]. - The average import price of bauxite fell to $74.9 per ton, down 4.9% month-on-month but up 13.5% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Alumina Trade - China maintained a net export position for alumina, with a net export volume of 104,000 tons in July, up 48.5% month-on-month [4]. - Alumina imports totaled 126,000 tons, up 24.4% month-on-month and 78.2% year-on-year, primarily from Indonesia and Australia [4]. - Cumulative alumina exports from January to July reached 1.572 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.3% [4]. Group 3: Primary Aluminum Trade - Primary aluminum imports in July were 248,000 tons, up 29.1% month-on-month and 91.2% year-on-year [6]. - Exports of primary aluminum reached 41,000 tons, marking a significant increase of 108.9% month-on-month and 116.7% year-on-year [6]. - Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 1.498 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [6]. Group 4: Aluminum Alloy Trade - Aluminum alloy imports decreased to 69,000 tons in July, down 10.6% month-on-month and 28.4% year-on-year [7]. - Exports of aluminum alloys were 25,000 tons, down 3.3% month-on-month but up 38.3% year-on-year [7]. Group 5: Scrap Aluminum Imports - Scrap aluminum imports reached 160,000 tons in July, up 3.1% month-on-month and 18.7% year-on-year [10]. - Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 1.173 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [11]. Group 6: Aluminum Product Exports - Aluminum product exports in July were 475,000 tons, up 7.4% month-on-month but down 13.2% year-on-year [14]. - The top five export destinations included Mexico, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand, with varying month-on-month growth rates [14]. - Cumulative aluminum product exports from January to July totaled 3.181 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% [14]. Group 7: Aluminum Wheel Exports - Aluminum wheel exports reached 88,000 tons in July, up 1.5% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year [19]. - The United States, Japan, and Mexico were the primary importers, accounting for 56.3% of total exports [19]. - Cumulative exports from January to July totaled 579,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [20]. Group 8: Overall Export Trends - The combined exports of aluminum materials and products from January to July totaled 5.211 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% [22]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on global aluminum trade is expected to gradually manifest, affecting China's aluminum product exports [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish (Trend)**: Palm Oil [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton, Red Dates, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: In a situation where fundamental factors are weak and Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support, it is advisable to view it as a large - range market. After the hype of events cools down, the price has recently dropped slightly. With the support of Sino - US trade tariffs, it is mainly recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to position and risk control when chasing long positions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a reduction in the new - year yield of Canadian rapeseed. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with the improvement of Sino - Australian trade, have cooled down the market hype. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips and be cautious when chasing long positions [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply problem before the new cotton is listed. The fast de - stocking speed and the lack of import quotas provide support for the bottom. The downstream will enter the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market, and orders have started to improve. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and previous low - position long positions can consider phased profit - taking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: It is initially estimated that the total output of Xinjiang southern Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025/26 season will be in the range of 50 - 580,000 tons, and the reduction is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, the market hype period around the opening price is relatively long, and the de - stocking speed has accelerated recently. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the previous pressure of second - fattening slaughter and the accelerated slaughter rhythm in August still put pressure on the spot end. The "weak reality, strong expectation" situation is still obvious. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and attention can be paid to establishing long positions in the far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3096.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.938 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 701,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 549,700 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,100 tons [3]. - **Analysis**: The continuous rise in US soybean prices has led to a decline in the Brazilian soybean premium. The procurement of imported soybeans in September in China has been fully completed, and more than half of the procurement for October has also been completed. The downstream feed enterprises are mainly cautious and wait - and - see [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2546 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.21% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,800 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons [5]. - **Analysis**: From August to October, the import of rapeseed is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% Canadian rapeseed meal import tariff and other factors support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts pressure on the price [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the previous day; the national average price was 9418 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 599,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,600 tons [8]. - **Analysis**: The export data in the first 15 days of this month is good, which boosts the market to reach a new high. The trend is still mainly to go long on dips [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton decreased by 0.25% to 14,120 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.01% to 15,222 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The excellent and good rate of US cotton decreased by 2% to 53% week - on - week, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area has recovered to 82%. The newly sown cotton area in India is 3.13 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 7% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has mostly entered the boll - opening stage, and the output is expected to increase to over 7.4 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory has decreased by 150,600 tons to 1.8561 million tons [11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 increased by 0.74% to 11,545 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period. It is estimated that the new - season output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years [14]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98 tons [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.18% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply Situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [17]. - **Demand Situation**: It is currently the consumption off - season, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts combined with tariff fluctuations make trading difficult, so it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [5]. - The spot freight rate is continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices. The market is oscillating weakly, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Stop - loss should be set [2]. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the euro - zone's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The SENTIX investor confidence index in July jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Policy and Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit transit trade. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the market price range was set with a small price increase to test the market [5]. - The US - China tariff negotiation was postponed for 90 days. Maersk's recent quotes have been continuously declining, and the market is pessimistic about future prices [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 300 points) and take partial profits; go short lightly for the EC2512 contract and take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On August 12, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1417.6, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and an open interest of 560,000 lots, a decrease of 734 lots from the previous day [5]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (★★), Cotton (★), Red dates (★), Live pigs (★★) [1] - **Large - range market**: Soybean meal (★), Rapeseed meal (★) [1] Core Views - **Soybean meal**: In the context of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it should be treated as a large - range market. Although there was inventory reduction this week, there is a risk of a month - on - month increase in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious when going long [1][5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: With the recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year but the risk of a yield reduction in Canadian rapeseed, and considering factors such as import volume, tariffs, and consumption substitution, it should be treated as a large - range market. Pay attention to planting weather, data adjustments in the US agricultural report, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1][7]. - **Palm oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The trend is mainly to go long on dips, but beware of the risk of a near - month squeeze [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tight, and there is a certain support at the bottom. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, there is a high probability of an improvement in downstream demand. Consider the opportunity to go long on dips [1][14]. - **Red dates**: There are still great differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and there is speculation risk. In the short term, the speculation period around the opening price is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is still favorable for the long - term trend. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][17]. - **Live pigs**: The current situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". The short - term and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the capacity reduction of leading enterprises may help the far - month contracts rise. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1][20]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3020.57 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [3]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [4]. - **Trading situation**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume increased significantly, reaching a three - year high [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2724 yuan/ton, down 1.77% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2707.32 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Demand situation**: Due to the oversupply of soybean meal, the substitution effect of soybean meal on rapeseed meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal [7]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9218 yuan/ton, up 2.65% from the previous day. The national average price is 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.76 million tons, an increase of 3.02% [9]. - **Export situation**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2509's closing price is 13880 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.09% to 15179 yuan/ton [12]. - **International situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased by 2% week - on - week to 53%, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area increased to 82%. India's cotton planting area increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24% [12]. - **Domestic situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 200.67 million tons. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to start in 1 - 2 weeks [13][14]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601's closing price is 11685 yuan/ton, up 3.32% from the previous day [16]. - **Production area situation**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting stage. The estimated new - season output is between 56 - 62 million tons, but there are different views on the reduction range [16]. - **Inventory situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and the inventory reduction speed accelerated [16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511's closing price is 14180 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union's sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 increased, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [19]. - **Demand situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [19].

Market Overview - The US stock market opened the week with declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 200.52 points (0.45%) to close at 43,975.09 points, the Nasdaq down by 64.62 points (0.30%) at 21,385.40 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 16.00 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 points [2] - A record proportion of fund managers, approximately 91%, believe that US stocks are currently overvalued, marking the highest level since 2001 [4] - Hedge funds net sold $1 billion in US stocks last week, while institutional investors focused on long positions bought $4 billion [4] Technology Sector - Nvidia and AMD have reached an agreement with the Trump administration to pay 15% of their revenue from chips sold to China to the US government in exchange for export licenses [5][7] - Nvidia will pay 15% of its revenue from H20 chips sold in China, while AMD will do the same for MI308 chips [7] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple down 0.83%, Amazon down 0.62%, and Nvidia down 0.3% [5] Energy Sector - Energy stocks experienced a broad decline, with ExxonMobil down 0.87%, Chevron down nearly 1%, and ConocoPhillips down 0.39% [8][9] - WTI crude oil prices remained stable, closing at $63.99 per barrel [8] Gold Market - Gold prices fell significantly, with spot gold dropping 1.6% to a low of $3,341.25 per ounce, marking a new low in over a week, while December futures fell 2.5% to settle at $3,404.70 per ounce [10] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple negative factors, including Trump's exemption on gold tariffs, the extension of the US-China trade truce, and market anxiety over upcoming US inflation data [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Meal: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Canola Oil: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (No clear indication of trend, with emphasis on short - term shock) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Bullish bias, but with operational challenges) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are affected by multiple factors including trade policies, weather, and supply - demand relationships. There is no clear trend in the short - term, and most products are in a state of shock. For long - term investments, factors such as the development of biodiesel policies and seasonal supply - demand changes need to be considered [2][3][5] - Attention should be paid to the weather in domestic soybean - producing areas, policy guidance, the resolution of tariff issues, and the impact of biodiesel policies on the prices of agricultural products [2][3][5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean auctions had a total of 32,000 tons with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold. The price of Soybean No. 1 fluctuated at a low level, and the price difference between Soybean No. 1 and No. 2 continued to narrow. There is resistance to price increases during the harvest period. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybeans in the domestic market [2] - In the context of unclear Sino - US trade tariffs, US new - crop soybeans are difficult to enter the domestic market, and domestic soybean meal continues to fluctuate. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased, and domestic procurement in the fourth quarter is slow. The oil mill's crushing rate is stable, and soybean meal inventory has reached a new high for the year. There is an early expectation of a bumper harvest for US soybeans, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is resolved [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - In the short - term, there is a need to be cautious about the risk of increased price fluctuations in soybean and palm oil. The market is discussing the US biodiesel policy, and the price spread between foreign and domestic soybean oil is approaching parity. The previous upward trend is likely to turn into a shock. The long - term development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains, so a strategy of buying on dips is maintained. Palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and there is uncertainty in the long - term supply of soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the amplification of market sentiment in the medium - term [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices have risen due to the rebound of major overseas oilseed futures prices. Before the release of the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the rapeseed meal market is expected to be bullish in the short - term. China - Canada economic and trade negotiations have not released new signals, and the downstream of the domestic rapeseed industry continues to destock slowly, so prices are supported but demand expectations may decline [5] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to be weak. The auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had a low transaction rate. Without policy guidance, the domestic corn market is expected to remain weak at the bottom [6] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continued to fall, reaching a new low for the year, while the futures price was relatively strong. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August increased by 6.6% month - on - month. The fourth - quarter slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the near - term futures price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the production - capacity reduction logic in the long - term [7] Eggs - Egg futures continued to decline with increasing positions. The spot price was basically stable, with slight rebounds in some areas. Attention should be paid to the impact of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand and the release of cold - storage eggs on the spot price. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and a reverse - spread trading strategy is recommended for the futures market [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs (Cautious bullish) [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal (Large - range oscillation); Palm oil (Short - term consolidation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean meal**: In a large - range oscillation due to the intertwined influence of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. This week's inventory reduction and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish factors, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week, making the market cautious about going long [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: In a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed production is recovering year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. - **Palm oil**: Short - term consolidation. The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices. It is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions and look for opportunities to go long after price stabilization [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. The moisture conditions in the main US cotton - producing areas continue to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. In China, the increase in the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton boosts the guaranteed output. The rapid commercial de - stocking and the slowdown in downstream finished - product restocking provide short - term support. The downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the decline space before the new cotton is listed is expected to be limited [1]. - **Red dates**: Cautiously bullish. There are still significant differences in the market regarding the extent of the production reduction, and there is still a risk of over - hyped production reduction. It is advisable to be cautious about going long this week and pay attention to the previous high pressure level [1]. - **Live pigs**: Cautiously bullish. The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs, but the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still promotes some second - fattening speculation. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains high, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It presents a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation" [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.20 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 655.59 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract was 3026 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3006.29 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease from the previous day [2]. - **Market situation**: The de - stocking this week and the decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans are bullish, but there is a risk of an increase in the US soybean yield per unit in the August USDA report next week [1]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 million tons; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract was 2745 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2753.16 yuan/ton, a 1.75% increase from the previous day [5]. - **Market situation**: The decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal consumption and the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit are bearish factors [1]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract was 8970 yuan/ton, a 1.04% decrease from the previous day; the national average price was 9040 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the previous day [8]. - **Market situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, but the possible inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **Inventory**: The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 was 13690 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease; the domestic spot price increased by 0.06% to 15196 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market situation**: The US cotton good - quality rate is stable and higher than the same period, but the non - drought rate in the US cotton area is decreasing. In China, the new cotton production is expected to increase, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is gradually improving [12][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 51 tons, higher than the same period [16]. - **Price**: The main red date contract CJ2601 increased by 1.71% to 10980 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market situation**: There are differences in the market regarding the production reduction amplitude, and the high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height [17]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Inventory and出栏**: The national sample enterprise live pig inventory in June was 3763.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%; the出栏 volume was 1091.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18]. - **Price**: The main live pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.68% to 14010 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [19]. - **Market situation**: The short - term出栏 increase and the second - fattening speculation co - exist. The medium - and long - term production capacity is high, and leading enterprises are gradually reducing production capacity [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]