让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 从业资格证号：F0232181 投资咨询证号：Z000183 时间：2025.12.26 农产品团队： 贾晖 Z000183 曹以康 F03133687 NFR 2026 商品年度报告 双粕 主产国博弈年 双粕行情不确定性增强 展望 2026年，我们认为—— 在全球气候基本稳定以及全球大豆供应形势初步预期尚可的情况下，2026 年国内豆粕预计更多呈现阶段性行情机会，行情表现也会较2025年将更加复杂 多变。全球大豆供应状态有望在美国和巴西间形成博弈，博弈中国际大豆及国 内豆粕价格不确定性增强。但如果按照11月中国对美豆采购协议以及13%的关税， 国内豆粕2025年会面临成本抬升。关注2026年美豆种植面积以及中美采购协议 的稳定性。关注阶段性和成本下的逢低看多机会。 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业 务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 菜粕市场 受贸易政策影响，菜粕呈现内紧外松，内强外弱的表现。国际市场方面， 2025/26年度全球菜籽产量恢复性增加，利空国际菜系价格。强弱多重因素影响 下，202 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks upward momentum, and cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillation, waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report on Friday [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session close of 13,535 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decline. CY2601 closed at 19,855 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily decline and 19,820 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% decline. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 63.93 cents/pound with a 0.64% decline. Trading volumes of CF2601 and CY2601 decreased by 115,823 and 1,999 hands respectively compared to the previous day, while their positions increased by 8,762 and 1,045 hands respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts increased by 325 to 3,619, and the effective forecast decreased by 237 to 1,154. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19, and the effective forecast increased by 7 to 12 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,534 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,458 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan or 0.14%. The 3128B index was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.73 cents/pound, up 1 cent or 1.22% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 0, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading showed little change, with overall performance being average, and the spot basis remained stable. Different regions in Xinjiang had different sales basis prices [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The cotton yarn market was lukewarm, with 40 - count yarn having better sales. Due to the reduction of Sino - US trade tariffs, traceability orders improved. Spinning mills had high operating intentions due to good cash flow. Cotton yarn prices mostly remained stable, and there was a differentiation in the sales of cotton grey cloth [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and both the international market and US cotton itself lacked upward drivers, so the ICE cotton futures remained in a low - level oscillation [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Tin [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Author: Wang Wenhu [2] - Contact: 021 - 51801878 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations weighs on tin prices, but the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, along with the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be weak first and then strong. Investors are advised to mainly buy on price dips, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's future interest rate cut and halt of balance - sheet reduction expectations and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is below the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the Fed's expectations and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in LME, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10] - The inventory of refined tin in SHFE decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in LME increased compared with last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [12] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines [18][19] - The production (import) volume of Chinese tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. Factors include the resumption of mines in Myanmar, Indonesia's mine policies, and the situation in other countries [21][23] - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in October increased month - on - month [24][25] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined tin increased compared with last week. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October increased (decreased) month - on - month [26][28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month due to the production plans of foreign mines and export forecasts [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [41][43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries increased compared with last week. As tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect tin demand [44][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff policies, expectations of future Fed rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, and production disruptions in overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously bullish [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On October 20, 2025, the closing price was 85380, up 990 from the previous day; trading volume was 158661 lots, up 37611; open interest was 226910 lots, up 11337; inventory was 41319 tons, down 1530 [1] - **LME Copper Futures**: The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on October 20, 2025, was 10712.5, up 105.5 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 23.35, down 6.52; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 99.11, down 10.51 [1] - **COMEX Copper**: On October 20, 2025, the total inventory weight was 346616, up 1964 from the previous day, and the price was 5.0485, up 0.06 [1] Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, resulting in a negative China copper concentrate import index, a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, difficult scrap copper procurement, an increase in the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates, and an increase in the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October [1] - **Demand Side**: Domestic electrolytic copper holders have a weak willingness to sell, leading to low purchasing sentiment among downstream buyers [1] - **Inventory Side**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME's electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [1] Trading Strategy Investors should mainly establish long positions after price corrections. Pay attention to the support levels of 80000 - 83000 and resistance levels of 86000 - 89000 for Shanghai copper; support levels of 9500 - 10200 and resistance levels of 11000 - 12000 for LME copper; support levels of 4.0 - 4.5 and resistance levels of 5.5 - 6.0 for COMEX copper [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff policies, expectations of future interest rate cuts and an end to balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, and disruptions in overseas copper mine production, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 85,050, a decrease of 660 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 121,050 lots, and the open interest was 221,715 lots. The inventory was 44,406 tons, a decrease of 1,557 tons [1]. - **LME Copper Futures**: The closing price of the 3 - month contract (electronic trading) was 10,776.5, a decrease of 13 compared to the previous day. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 16.83, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 127.75 [1]. - **COMEX Copper Futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 5.14. The total inventory was 345,581, an increase of 2,346 compared to the previous day [1]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand outlook. Scrap copper procurement is difficult, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates are starting to rise. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in October has increased month - on - month [1]. - **Demand Side**: Domestic electrolytic copper holders are less willing to sell, resulting in low downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. - **Inventory Side**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper at the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory has increased [1]. Trading Strategy Wait for the price to fall and then mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; and the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The price of Shanghai copper may be weak first and then strong due to the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, the expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On October 15, 2025, the closing price was 85,800, up 1,390 from the previous day; the trading volume was 125,819 lots, down 85,165 from the previous day; the open interest was 175,899 lots, down 11,667 from the previous day; the inventory was 44,531 tons, up 8,236 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was - 565, down 2,145 from the previous day [1] 2. Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium and Discount - SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price on October 15, 2025 was 85,235, down 755 from the previous day; SMM flat - water copper opening premium and discount - average price was 70, up 50 from the previous day; SMM premium copper opening premium and discount - average price was 130, up 30 from the previous day; SMM wet - process copper opening premium and discount - average price was 0, up 45 from the previous day; SMM Guixi copper opening premium and discount - average price was 150, up 20 from the previous day; EQ copper opening premium and discount: average price was - 90, up 15 from the previous day; SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 369.43, up 0.12 from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 45, unchanged from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 52, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Spread (Near - month and Far - month) - On October 15, 2025, the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was - 150, down 140 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 1 and Shanghai copper continuous - 2 was - 50, down 80 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 2 and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was 60, down 30 from the previous day [1] 4. London Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,576, down 22.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 27.94, down 26.93 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 171.49, up 18.49 from the previous day; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1127, up 0.15 from the previous day [1] 5. COMEX Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.972, down 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory was 343,235, up 2,360 from the previous day [1] 6. Key Information and Investment Strategy - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to a rise in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in October increased month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: The shipping enthusiasm of domestic electrolytic copper spot traders has weakened, resulting in low downstream purchasing sentiment [1] - **Inventory Side**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [1] 7. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, along with the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, and the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, which may not change the tight supply - demand situation, could lead to wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors mainly wait for price drops to establish long positions, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin at around 260,000 - 265,000 and 290,000 - 300,000 respectively, and those of London tin at around 33,000 - 35,000 and 38,000 - 40,000 respectively [3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, the tight domestic tin ore supply - demand situation, and the resumption expectation of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both basically within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai - London tin price is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in the LME. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [11] - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, the inventory of refined tin in the LME, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad have all decreased compared to last week [13] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [19][20] - Multiple factors such as the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia, the commissioning of a new plant in Namibia, the resumption of mines in Myanmar and Congo, and the suspension of tin ore transit exports in Thailand may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production and import volume of domestic tin ore in October [22] - The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [24] - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has increased (remained flat) compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on its smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month [28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month. The new tin smelter in the US and the planned production and export increase in Indonesia are the reasons [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month [43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries has increased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][46]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is relatively optimistic, and there is support at the lower end of aluminum prices [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the macro sentiment at home and abroad is positive, providing price support for non - ferrous metals [66]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply will have a small increase, and the price will first rise and then fall, with the upper pressure at 22,000 and the lower support at 20,000. Attention should be paid to the demand - side support [68]. - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum alloy change little, and its price still fluctuates with the aluminum price. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [68]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The electrolytic aluminum price showed a three - stage trend in the current period. From January to mid - March, it oscillated upward due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, Trump's assumption of office, and pre - holiday stocking demand. From late March to early April, it oscillated downward as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation faded and concerns about Trump's tariff policy emerged. From mid - April to the present, it oscillated upward after the US tariff policy was implemented and counter - measures were taken in China, along with other factors like supply disturbances from Guinea's bauxite and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [6]. 2. Macro - aspect - The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, and liquidity became more relaxed. The US economic data showed changes in employment, inflation, etc. The tariff impact was temporarily alleviated, and attention should be paid to the time point in November. China's anti - involution policy was advanced, and future inflation might stabilize and rebound [8][10][14]. 3. Fundamental Aspect Supply - side - **Bauxite**: In July, China's bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's supply was disturbed, but the impact was expected to be limited. The domestic port inventory was high, suppressing the transaction price. The bauxite price might have a seasonal correction but had support at 70 dollars/ton [18][22][24]. - **Alumina**: The supply was loose. In 2025, there was a large - scale new - investment capacity. Although some projects were postponed, there was still 440 million tons of new - investment capacity in the fourth quarter. The production capacity utilization rate was at a historical high, but there might be seasonal production cuts in winter in Shanxi and Henan [25][27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In August, the production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In the fourth quarter, the production was expected to be about 11.283 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%, showing a stable operation [30]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the import volume of un - forged aluminum alloy hit a four - year low, mainly due to price inversion and the off - season of demand. The export volume increased year - on - year. The weekly inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy increased [59][60][64]. Demand - side - **Downstream Processing**: As of September 18, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% week - on - week, but decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Different sectors had different trends [31]. - **Export**: In August, China's export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [34]. - **New Energy**: In the photovoltaic field, the annual photovoltaic installation was expected to increase year - on - year, and the photovoltaic aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter was expected to decrease year - on - year but still maintain positive growth for the whole year. In the power grid field, the cable aluminum demand continued to grow, and it was expected to maintain high - growth in the fourth quarter [39]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The demand for aluminum in the automobile industry increased significantly, and new - energy vehicles were expected to drive aluminum consumption in the fourth quarter [46]. - **Real Estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. However, the new policies in first - tier cities might support the market demand, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [41]. Inventory - As of September 19, the inventory of SHFE electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, LME inventory increased, and COMEX inventory decreased slightly. The overall inventory was in a low position historically. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was expected to show a "slow de - stocking" pattern in the fourth quarter [48][51]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August and was expected to continue to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points week - on - week as of September 18, and it was expected to remain stable in September [54][57]. 4. Future Outlook - The macro - environment is favorable for non - ferrous metals. The bauxite price may have a seasonal correction but has support. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum price will first rise and then fall. The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price [66][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the report's industry investment rating. Core View of the Report Benefiting from the 90-day extension of the China-US trade tariff negotiations, the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and better-than-expected new car sales in the rubber market's downstream, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend in August 2025. The macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the future, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [6][7][140]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of the Domestic Rubber Futures Trend in August 2025 In August 2025, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract rose from 15,075 yuan/ton to around 15,900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.42%. The standard rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 12,090 yuan/ton to around 12,800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.87%. The synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 11,320 yuan/ton to around 12,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.00% [6][11]. 2. Improvement in the Macro Environment and Increasing Expectation of a Fed Rate Cut In August 2025, the overseas macro environment remained optimistic. The short-term China-US tariff risk was temporarily removed. Trump's nomination of Fed officials and the current inflation and employment data in the US indicate that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is as high as 91.5% [22][23][24]. 3. Stable Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 In July 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Although the manufacturing PMI declined slightly, other economic indicators showed positive trends. The total industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 387.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The total import and export volume of goods was 3.9102 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [37][38][39]. 4. Overseas Rubber Producing Areas in the Peak Harvest Season with Rising Supply Pressure Since 2010, the planting area of natural rubber in Southeast Asian countries has generally increased, but the unit yield has declined due to low rubber prices. According to seasonal patterns, the supply pressure will gradually increase from May to November. In June 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 911,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 48,800 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 50,000 tons. It is expected that the global natural rubber production may decrease by about 5% in 2025 [62][63][66]. 5. A Significant Increase in the Premium Spread between Shanghai Rubber, Standard Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber In August 2025, the spread between Shanghai rubber, standard rubber, and synthetic rubber widened steadily. The premium of the Shanghai rubber futures main contract over the synthetic futures main contract increased from 2,925 yuan/ton to 4,035 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 37.95%. It is expected that the spreads between Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber, and between Shanghai rubber and standard rubber may maintain a high premium in the future [93][94]. 6. Mixed Sales in the Overseas Automobile Market in July 2025 In July 2025, the US automobile sales increased year-on-year, with a total of 1.4072 million vehicles sold, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The European automobile market declined slightly in June, with new car registrations decreasing by 5.1% year-on-year. In July, the Japanese automobile sales decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Overall, the overseas automobile market sales were mixed in July 2025 [97][98]. 7. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Automobile Production and Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 12%. It is expected that the domestic automobile market will maintain a growth trend in the second half of 2025 [104][105][108]. 8. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Heavy Truck Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's heavy truck sales reached about 83,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 11%. It is expected that the heavy truck sales may exceed 1 million vehicles in 2025. New energy heavy trucks continued to lead the market, and natural gas heavy trucks showed signs of recovery [114][116][117]. 9. A Decline in Domestic Tire Production and a Slight Increase in Natural Rubber Imports In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 94.364 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The tire exports were 66.65 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to July, China imported a total of 4.709 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The social inventory of natural rubber showed a seasonal upward trend [121][122][125]. 10. Summary Looking ahead to September 2025, the macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [140].

Core Insights - The article discusses the import and export trends of aluminum-related products in China for July 2025, highlighting the resilience of aluminum exports despite global trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States [1]. Group 1: Bauxite Imports - Bauxite imports reached 20.06 million tons in July, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [2]. - Imports from Guinea accounted for 15.94 million tons, up 19.6% month-on-month and 52.0% year-on-year, while imports from Australia were 3.13 million tons, up 3.9% month-on-month but down 19.4% year-on-year [2]. - The average import price of bauxite fell to $74.9 per ton, down 4.9% month-on-month but up 13.5% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Alumina Trade - China maintained a net export position for alumina, with a net export volume of 104,000 tons in July, up 48.5% month-on-month [4]. - Alumina imports totaled 126,000 tons, up 24.4% month-on-month and 78.2% year-on-year, primarily from Indonesia and Australia [4]. - Cumulative alumina exports from January to July reached 1.572 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.3% [4]. Group 3: Primary Aluminum Trade - Primary aluminum imports in July were 248,000 tons, up 29.1% month-on-month and 91.2% year-on-year [6]. - Exports of primary aluminum reached 41,000 tons, marking a significant increase of 108.9% month-on-month and 116.7% year-on-year [6]. - Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 1.498 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [6]. Group 4: Aluminum Alloy Trade - Aluminum alloy imports decreased to 69,000 tons in July, down 10.6% month-on-month and 28.4% year-on-year [7]. - Exports of aluminum alloys were 25,000 tons, down 3.3% month-on-month but up 38.3% year-on-year [7]. Group 5: Scrap Aluminum Imports - Scrap aluminum imports reached 160,000 tons in July, up 3.1% month-on-month and 18.7% year-on-year [10]. - Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 1.173 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [11]. Group 6: Aluminum Product Exports - Aluminum product exports in July were 475,000 tons, up 7.4% month-on-month but down 13.2% year-on-year [14]. - The top five export destinations included Mexico, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand, with varying month-on-month growth rates [14]. - Cumulative aluminum product exports from January to July totaled 3.181 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% [14]. Group 7: Aluminum Wheel Exports - Aluminum wheel exports reached 88,000 tons in July, up 1.5% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year [19]. - The United States, Japan, and Mexico were the primary importers, accounting for 56.3% of total exports [19]. - Cumulative exports from January to July totaled 579,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [20]. Group 8: Overall Export Trends - The combined exports of aluminum materials and products from January to July totaled 5.211 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% [22]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on global aluminum trade is expected to gradually manifest, affecting China's aluminum product exports [22].