Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the U.S. CPI growth in April was moderate and below expectations, with certain goods' prices reflecting the impact of tariffs imposed by the White House. The overall year-on-year growth of 2.3% may represent the low point for the year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The static assessment suggests that if the tariffs remain unchanged following the U.S.-China joint statement on May 12, the cumulative effect of the tariffs could increase the U.S. PCE deflator index by approximately 0.85% [1] - The long-term impact of these tariffs is projected to drag down the U.S. GDP size by about 0.3% [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The Trump administration would need to reduce the average price of prescription drugs by at least 30% to offset the inflationary effects of its tariff measures [1] - The visibility of U.S. tariff levels appears to be stabilizing, which is seen as a positive development for risk assets such as U.S. stocks [1] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar may receive support in the near term due to the recovering visibility of trade policies [1] - The company remains cautious regarding U.S. Treasury bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates up to two times within the year, influenced by the recent CPI data and ongoing tariff measures [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. March CPI growth rate was lower than expected and previous values, showing a consistent cooling trend [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation was not significantly evident in March, despite the announcement of a "90-day tariff suspension" by Trump [1] Tariff Measures - Various tariff measures from the White House are still in effect, which may cumulatively increase the PCE deflator index by approximately 1.2% [1] - The overall CPI in the U.S. is unlikely to fall significantly below the current reading of 2.4% for the remainder of the year [1] Market Outlook - The market's pricing for U.S. economic stagnation appears to be adequately reflected, while the pricing for inflation may be underestimated [1] - The outlook for the U.S. stock market remains uncertain [1]