Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is approaching a critical technical level ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, with market focus shifting back to the 200-day moving average [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Current Exchange Rate Dynamics** - Since April, the USD/JPY pair has struggled to maintain stability above 148.65, with a key resistance level at 149.13 represented by the 200-day moving average (200DMA) [1] - The USD/JPY has not closed above the 200DMA for two consecutive days since December of the previous year [1] - **Market Expectations and Potential Outcomes** - There is a risk of hawkish sentiment in Powell's upcoming speech, which could lead the USD/JPY to test and potentially break through the long-term resistance level [1] - Conversely, if Powell's remarks are dovish or meet expectations, the support level is identified at 146.62, corresponding to the 55-day moving average [1]