Core Viewpoint - September is historically the most challenging month for the U.S. stock market, with increased volatility and a tendency for seasonal weakness [1][2] Group 1: Historical Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has an average monthly decline of 1.1% in September, with only 42.2% of years showing an increase [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also perform poorly in September, with average declines of 1.1% and 0.9% respectively [2] - Historical data shows that if the market is in an upward trend before September, the seasonal weakness may dissipate [2][3] Group 2: Recent Market Trends - The U.S. stock market had a strong performance in August, with the DJI rising 3.2%, marking its best August since 2020 [3] - The Russell 2000 index saw a significant increase of 7% in August, the best monthly performance in 25 years [3] - The S&P 500 was above its 200-day moving average, which historically correlates with a higher likelihood of positive performance in September [4][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Expectations - Key events influencing September's market include the upcoming non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is expected [5] - The uncertainty surrounding whether the rate cut will be dovish or hawkish is a significant factor for market direction [5] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has recently dropped, indicating a low volatility environment that may precede increased market fluctuations [5][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is approaching a critical technical level ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, with market focus shifting back to the 200-day moving average [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Current Exchange Rate Dynamics** - Since April, the USD/JPY pair has struggled to maintain stability above 148.65, with a key resistance level at 149.13 represented by the 200-day moving average (200DMA) [1] - The USD/JPY has not closed above the 200DMA for two consecutive days since December of the previous year [1] - **Market Expectations and Potential Outcomes** - There is a risk of hawkish sentiment in Powell's upcoming speech, which could lead the USD/JPY to test and potentially break through the long-term resistance level [1] - Conversely, if Powell's remarks are dovish or meet expectations, the support level is identified at 146.62, corresponding to the 55-day moving average [1]

Group 1 - Bilibili (BILI) has recently reached a key level of support and has overtaken the 200-day moving average, indicating a long-term bullish trend [1] - BILI shares have increased by 8.8% over the past four weeks, and the stock is currently rated as Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential for continued growth [2] - Positive earnings estimate revisions support the bullish outlook for BILI, with no estimates decreasing in the past two months and one estimate increasing, alongside a rise in the consensus estimate [3]

标普500指数自3月26日以来首次突破200日移动平均线。 ...