美联储利率刹车失灵

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6张图,看清我们身处的经济拐点
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-18 09:00
Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic uncertainty and the failure of traditional economic theories, indicating that the U.S. is at a critical juncture where old rules no longer apply and new ones have yet to be established [2][3][12] - It highlights the unprecedented expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, which has reached 7% of GDP despite low unemployment rates, marking a departure from historical economic patterns [9][10][11] - The article emphasizes the impact of the fiscal deficit on asset prices, particularly high-scarcity assets like gold and Bitcoin, which have shown resilience despite rising real interest rates [16][17][18] Group 2 - The article outlines the shift from a market-driven economy to a fiscal-driven credit system, where government debt growth surpasses private sector borrowing, fundamentally altering the credit landscape [24][29][30] - It points out that the Federal Reserve's traditional tools for controlling inflation and credit expansion are becoming ineffective due to the high level of government debt relative to GDP [31][32][34] - The article discusses the structural issues preventing a reversal of the current fiscal trajectory, including the increasing burden of interest payments on government spending, which is projected to grow significantly [42][46][48] Group 3 - The article addresses the demographic changes in the U.S., particularly the retirement of the "baby boomer" generation, which is expected to deplete the Social Security Trust Fund and further exacerbate fiscal deficits [49][55][60] - It highlights the systemic nature of the U.S. debt, indicating that the financial system is designed to allow for continuous debt accumulation without a mechanism for reduction [63][68][72] - The article concludes that high-scarcity assets provide a potential solution to navigate the ongoing fiscal challenges, as they operate outside the traditional debt-driven economic framework [75][80]