11月21日，泽平宏观团队发文称，任何资产都不会永远下跌，房地产也一样。2021年以来，楼市跌了四 五年，全国销售额比高点时跌去了一半，一二线城市房价跌了20%-30%，部分三四线甚至腰斩，那么， 未来房价还会涨吗？哪些信号出现可以入场？ 第一大信号，政策从"放松"全面转向"鼓励"，定位发生重大转变。房地产市场很大程度上是政策市，受 政策影响非常大。未来政策信号估计是"组合拳"发力：首先，限购全面松绑，预计未来一线城市外环限 购全面放开、3年左右全域放开，这是大势所趋；其次，房贷利率持续大幅下降；最后，降低税费，恢 复市场信心。 第二大信号：经济拐点出现，领先指标回升经济复苏，就业和居民收入上涨，楼市才有支撑，配合上政 策催化才能激活购房需求。制造业PMI新订单指数是居民就业和收入的先行指标。2015年8月，新订单 指标触底回升后，北京、上海等一线城市房价启动上涨。2020年8月新订单指标突破52%后，楼市迎来 小阳春。另外两个指标可以参考，央行每季度调查公布的城镇储户收入信心指数、就业预期指数。2016 年那轮楼市行情，这两个指数曾连续6个月上涨。 第三大信号：供求关系逆转，热点城市房价率先上涨房价是供求的 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech almost confirms a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, indicating that the U.S. economic outlook has not changed significantly since September, but labor market risks are rising [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated that inflation and economic outlook risks are broadly balanced, keeping all options open regarding future rate cuts, with a 50% probability of a rate cut by Q1 2026 [3] - Bank of England Governor Bailey warned of the coexistence of inflation above target and a weak labor market, with the IMF predicting the fastest price growth among major economies for the UK over the next two years [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the significant speeches from the three central bank leaders, the impact on the bond market was limited, with UK government bond yields falling between 4.9 to 6.9 basis points [3] - German long-term yields decreased by approximately 3.2 basis points, while U.S. Treasury yields varied from a decrease of 2.1 basis points for 2-year bonds to an increase of 1.3 basis points for 30-year bonds [3] - The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.16, partly benefiting from a weaker dollar, and stock index futures indicate a likely higher opening for the market [3] Group 3: Economic Data - China's September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month, ending a three-month decline, while year-on-year it fell by 0.3%, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased from 0.5% to 1%, marking a 19-month high, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [4] - In Australia, the central bank's assistant governor warned that core inflation for the September quarter may exceed expectations, with a 40% probability of a rate cut anticipated in November [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic turning point, highlighting the failure of traditional economic theories and the implications of persistent fiscal deficits in the U.S. economy, which affect asset prices and investment strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Deficit Expansion - The U.S. fiscal deficit has historically aligned with economic cycles, expanding during recessions and contracting during recoveries. However, since 2017, this pattern has broken down, with the deficit continuing to grow even as unemployment rates decline [6][7][8]. - The current fiscal deficit has reached 7% of GDP, indicating a shift where the government no longer relies on economic downturns to trigger fiscal expansion [8][10]. Group 2: Unusual Gold Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of the U.S. fiscal deficit on asset prices, particularly high-scarcity assets like gold and Bitcoin. Traditionally, rising real interest rates would lead to falling gold prices, but since 2022, gold prices have increased despite rising rates [12][13][14]. - This shift suggests a new market environment driven by fiscal policy rather than traditional monetary policy, where the focus is on the sustainability of credit and fiscal control [13][14]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Ineffective Rate Control - The article outlines a transition from a market-driven credit expansion model to a fiscal-driven one, where government debt growth outpaces private sector borrowing. This change has rendered traditional monetary policy tools, like interest rate adjustments, ineffective [16][21][22]. - As government debt exceeds 100% of GDP, attempts to raise interest rates lead to increased fiscal interest payments, further exacerbating the deficit [22][24]. Group 4: Structural Challenges to Fiscal Correction - The article discusses the structural issues preventing timely government intervention to correct fiscal imbalances. Since the 1980s, a long-term decline in interest rates has allowed rising debt levels to remain manageable, but with rates now at zero, the situation has become untenable [25][27][28]. - The increasing proportion of interest payments in the federal budget creates a vicious cycle, where rising deficits lead to higher interest costs, further straining fiscal resources [32][34]. Group 5: Demographic Changes and Social Security Pressures - The article highlights the impending depletion of the Social Security Trust Fund, which has been primarily funded by the "baby boomer" generation. As this generation retires, the fund will need to draw from general fiscal resources, increasing the deficit [36][41][43]. - The political sensitivity surrounding Social Security reform complicates efforts to address these fiscal challenges, as both major political parties avoid making significant changes to the program [42][43]. Group 6: Debt Dynamics and Systemic Constraints - The article asserts that the current monetary system inherently prevents debt reduction, with total U.S. debt surpassing $100 trillion. Historical data shows that debt levels have only decreased during significant crises, leading to a reliance on continuous debt issuance [45][46][47]. - The systemic nature of the fiat currency and central banking system means that debt expansion is the norm, with limited options for deleveraging without severe economic consequences [47]. Group 7: High Scarcity Assets as a Solution - The article concludes that in the current economic environment, characterized by persistent fiscal deficits and systemic constraints, high-scarcity assets provide a viable alternative for investors seeking stability [49][50]. - These assets operate outside the traditional debt-driven framework, offering a means to hedge against the ongoing fiscal challenges and inflationary pressures [51][52].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current economic uncertainty and the failure of traditional economic theories, indicating that the U.S. is at a critical juncture where old rules no longer apply and new ones have yet to be established [2][3][12] - It highlights the unprecedented expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, which has reached 7% of GDP despite low unemployment rates, marking a departure from historical economic patterns [9][10][11] - The article emphasizes the impact of the fiscal deficit on asset prices, particularly high-scarcity assets like gold and Bitcoin, which have shown resilience despite rising real interest rates [16][17][18] Group 2 - The article outlines the shift from a market-driven economy to a fiscal-driven credit system, where government debt growth surpasses private sector borrowing, fundamentally altering the credit landscape [24][29][30] - It points out that the Federal Reserve's traditional tools for controlling inflation and credit expansion are becoming ineffective due to the high level of government debt relative to GDP [31][32][34] - The article discusses the structural issues preventing a reversal of the current fiscal trajectory, including the increasing burden of interest payments on government spending, which is projected to grow significantly [42][46][48] Group 3 - The article addresses the demographic changes in the U.S., particularly the retirement of the "baby boomer" generation, which is expected to deplete the Social Security Trust Fund and further exacerbate fiscal deficits [49][55][60] - It highlights the systemic nature of the U.S. debt, indicating that the financial system is designed to allow for continuous debt accumulation without a mechanism for reduction [63][68][72] - The article concludes that high-scarcity assets provide a potential solution to navigate the ongoing fiscal challenges, as they operate outside the traditional debt-driven economic framework [75][80]