Core Viewpoint - The former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan, asserts that the inflation effects caused by tariffs have not fully manifested, and it is premature to claim that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Tariffs initiated by the Trump administration are expected to have lingering effects on inflation that have yet to be fully realized [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 100 basis points over the next 12 months, but this expectation may not be justified [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Rajan emphasizes that it is too early to conclude that the Federal Reserve will engage in sustained interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to "sustainably lower interest rates" in the future [1] - Current macroeconomic data in the U.S. is performing well, particularly with potential improvements in employment data following personnel changes in relevant statistical departments [1] - The market may be underestimating the inflation risks in the U.S. [1] - Personnel changes within the Federal Reserve could also contribute to uncertainties surrounding interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising expectations of tariffs have led the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, to adopt a more cautious stance regarding continued interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is reassessing its approach to interest rate cuts due to increased tariff expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising expectations of tariffs have led the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance regarding continued interest rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Federal Reserve's Position** - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the increasing expectations surrounding tariffs are influencing the Fed's approach to interest rate policy, making them more cautious about further rate reductions [1]