Core Viewpoint - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly the retirement of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, may lead to a more dovish stance in monetary policy, influencing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) towards potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced his retirement effective February next year, leaving a key position currently held by a hawkish member [1]. - The appointment of a more dovish successor could shift the FOMC's stance towards further rate cuts, despite Bostic's non-voting status until 2027 [1]. - The Federal Reserve Board is expected to approve the reappointment of all 12 regional Fed presidents for new five-year terms starting March 1 [1]. Group 2: Potential Impact of Supreme Court Ruling - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump could create another vacancy, allowing for the appointment of a new member aligned with lower interest rate policies [2]. - Analysts do not anticipate dramatic changes in the confirmation process for regional Fed presidents, despite the potential for a new appointee [2]. Group 3: Current Voting Members' Stance - All four current voting regional Fed presidents lean towards a hawkish stance, with concerns about inflation remaining high [4][5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem support rate cuts but emphasize caution due to inflation concerns [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee express higher thresholds for further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation [5]. Group 4: Future Voting Members' Perspectives - Incoming voting members, including the Philadelphia Fed President, may lean hawkish, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressing reservations about further rate cuts [6]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan also show hesitance towards rate cuts, focusing on inflation issues [6]. Group 5: Expected Divisions within the Committee - The composition of the regional Fed presidents is expected to be more hawkish, while the Board of Governors may lean dovish, leading to potential divisions within the committee [7]. - Three distinct factions are anticipated: a dovish group led by the new Fed Chair and certain governors, a hawkish group from regional presidents, and a more neutral group comprising other governors [7].

Group 1 - Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic announced plans to retire at the end of his term on February 28, 2026, although he is eligible for reappointment [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell praised Bostic's contributions to the Federal Open Market Committee and highlighted his leadership in enhancing the institution's strength [1] - The selection process for Bostic's successor will begin according to Federal Reserve policy, with the current First Vice President temporarily assuming the role if no successor is appointed by the retirement date [1] Group 2 - President Trump has criticized Powell for the slow pace of interest rate cuts and has threatened to dismiss him, raising market concerns [2] - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include current Board members and other prominent figures, with Kevin Hassett expressing willingness to accept the position if offered [2] - Trump aims to appoint more of his allies to the Federal Reserve Board, following the resignation of a board member and his nomination of Stephen Moore to fill the vacancy [2] Group 3 - Trump unilaterally announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud, which Cook denies and has contested in court [3] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing frequent personnel changes amid Trump's pressure, making its future direction a focal point for market observers [3]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a mixed performance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.68%, reaching a new closing high, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.26% [1] - Large technology stocks faced pressure, with Oracle down 3.88%, Meta and Tesla dropping over 2%, and Amazon and Google declining more than 1%. However, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom saw slight gains, with Qualcomm rising over 1% and AMD surging by 9% [1] - Bank stocks performed strongly, with Jefferies up over 5%, Goldman Sachs rising more than 3%, and Citigroup and Morgan Stanley increasing by over 2% [1] - Gold stocks also showed strong performance, with Hecla Mining and Harmony Gold both rising over 5% [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks did not follow the upward trend of some U.S. indices, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.46% [2] - Tencent Music dropped over 8%, while XPeng Motors, NIO, iQIYI, and Baidu fell by more than 2%. Li Auto, Alibaba, and JD.com also experienced declines exceeding 1% [2] Government Shutdown - The market is optimistic about the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, which has lasted for 43 days, with a temporary funding bill expected to be voted on by the House of Representatives [3][4] - The Senate has already approved the bill, which will fund the government until January 30 of the following year and provide back pay for affected federal employees [4] - The shutdown has caused significant disruptions, including forced leave for federal employees and interruptions to various government services [4] Federal Reserve Changes - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic unexpectedly announced his retirement effective February 28, 2026, which is interpreted as avoiding potential reappointment controversies [5][6] - This retirement comes at a time when the Trump administration is seeking to exert influence over the Federal Reserve's personnel decisions, including the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the selection of a successor for Chairman Jerome Powell [6]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a mixed performance on November 12, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.68% to set a new closing high, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.26% [1] - Large technology stocks faced pressure, with Oracle down 3.88%, Meta and Tesla dropping over 2%, and Amazon and Google declining more than 1%. However, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom saw slight gains, with Qualcomm rising over 1% and AMD surging by 9% [1] - Bank stocks performed strongly, with Jefferies up over 5%, Goldman Sachs rising more than 3%, and Citigroup and Morgan Stanley increasing by over 2%. Gold stocks also performed well, with Hecla Mining and Harmony Gold both gaining over 5% [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks did not follow the upward trend of some U.S. indices, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.46%. Tencent Music dropped over 8%, while XPeng Motors, NIO, iQIYI, and Baidu fell by more than 2%. Li Auto, Alibaba, and JD.com also experienced declines of over 1% [2] Government Shutdown - There is strong market expectation for the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, which has lasted for 43 days, marking the longest in U.S. history. The House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill, which is seen as a key factor supporting the strength of the Dow [3][4] - The Senate has already approved the bill, which will fund the government until January 30 and provide back pay for affected federal employees. President Trump has indicated he will sign the bill [4] Federal Reserve Changes - The unexpected announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic's retirement on February 28, 2026, has raised eyebrows, as it comes amid a critical period for the Federal Reserve. This decision is interpreted as a move to avoid potential controversy over reappointment [5][6] - The Trump administration is showing intent to reshape the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, with plans to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook and decide on a successor for Chairman Powell in the spring [6]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a mixed performance on November 12, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.68% to set a new closing high, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.26% [1] - Large technology stocks faced pressure, with Oracle down 3.88%, Meta and Tesla dropping over 2%, and Amazon and Google declining more than 1%. However, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom saw slight increases, with Qualcomm rising over 1% and AMD surging by 9% [1] - Bank stocks performed strongly, with Jefferies up over 5%, Goldman Sachs rising more than 3%, and Citigroup and Morgan Stanley increasing by over 2% [1] - Gold stocks also showed strong performance, with Hecla Mining and Harmony Gold both rising over 5% [1] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks did not follow the upward trend of some U.S. indices, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.46% [2] - Notable declines included Tencent Music down over 8%, and other companies like Xpeng Motors, NIO, iQIYI, and Baidu dropping more than 2%. Li Auto, Alibaba, and JD.com also experienced declines exceeding 1% [2] Government Shutdown Resolution - There is strong market expectation regarding the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown crisis, which has lasted for 43 days, marking the longest in U.S. history [3][4] - The House of Representatives is set to vote on a temporary funding bill that would provide government funding until January 30 of the following year and ensure back pay for affected federal employees [4] - The political deadlock has caused significant disruptions, including forced leave for federal employees and interruptions in government services, with both parties blaming each other for the crisis [4] Federal Reserve Personnel Changes - The unexpected announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic's retirement on February 28, 2026, has raised speculation about potential changes in the Federal Reserve's decision-making structure [5] - This retirement comes at a time when the Trump administration is seeking to exert influence over the Federal Reserve's personnel decisions, including attempts to remove certain board members and determine the successor to current Fed Chair Powell [5] - The traditional process of reappointment for the 12 regional Fed presidents may face changes due to the current political climate and the administration's active involvement [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as "incompetent" and indicating that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1][2]. Group 1 - Trump stated that the current Federal Reserve leadership is inadequate and that a change will occur in a few months [2]. - Powell's term is set to conclude in May 2026, contrary to Trump's assertion of a change within months [2]. - Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts and has urged Powell to resign [2].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as "incompetent" and indicating that Powell's term will end in May next year, suggesting a replacement will be appointed [2] Group 1 - Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] - Powell's current term is set to conclude in May 2026, contrary to Trump's statement about an imminent change [2] - The criticism reflects ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bottom of precious metals may be confirmed, and they are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the long - term price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [1][3]. - The price of precious metals rebounded slightly on Thursday after the decline gradually slowed down. The U.S. government shutdown continued, overseas was still in a data vacuum period, and the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were calm [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - U.S. President Trump will make a statement in Washington at 3 p.m. local time and will visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will accompany Trump to Japan and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [2]. - During the federal government shutdown, the U.S. government's national debt scale exceeded $38 trillion on Wednesday for the first time in history. The debt has been growing rapidly in the past decade due to factors like population aging and increased interest payments [2]. - The release of the U.S. initial jobless claims data originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on October 23 was postponed due to the government shutdown [2]. Price Logic - In the short - term, the precious metals are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. In the month, attention should be paid to the Sino - U.S. meeting around the APEC meeting. In the fourth quarter, focus on the Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year, but the 2026 interest rate cut expectation has not been reflected. Pay attention to the game around the December FOMC meeting [3]. - Personnel changes in the Fed within 1 - 2 quarters are an important variable. After Thanksgiving, the nomination of the new Fed chairman is expected to be confirmed, which may bring greater long - term interest rate imagination [3]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of the right - wing tendency after Koike Sanae is elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan [3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The contraction of the U.S. dollar credit is the core foundation. In the long - run, the price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [3]. - This week, the price range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between $3,900 and $4,400 per ounce, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively [43]. - The precious metals index on October 23, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day decline of 5.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.32%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.27% [44].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling that prevents the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - A federal appeals court ruled on September 15 that President Trump cannot remove Lisa Cook from her position at the Federal Reserve prior to the interest rate meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling that prevents the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled on September 15 to block President Trump from dismissing Lisa Cook from her position at the Federal Reserve [1] - The White House spokesperson announced the intention to appeal this decision [1]