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美国就业正显露颓势,美联储还要等多久?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-03 00:57
Group 1: Employment Market Trends - The U.S. job market is showing signs of slowing growth, with average monthly job additions dropping to 124,000 in the first five months of the year, down from 168,000 in the previous year [1] - The Labor Department's routine revisions indicate that the monthly job growth for January to April was adjusted down by an average of 55,000 positions [2] - The ADP report for June revealed a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs, with small businesses particularly affected, losing 47,000 jobs [3][4] Group 2: Challenges Facing Small Businesses - Small businesses are experiencing significant job losses, with an average monthly addition of only 5,300 jobs since 2025, compared to nearly 40,000 in the previous year [3] - Economic uncertainty is causing employers to slow down hiring, even as they avoid large-scale layoffs [4] Group 3: Demographic Changes Impacting Employment - Changes in population structure are limiting job growth potential, with net immigration in the U.S. expected to drop to zero or negative this year [5] - The domestic working-age population growth is nearly stagnant, which fundamentally alters the demand for job growth [5] - By the second half of 2025, the U.S. may only need to add 10,000 to 40,000 jobs per month to maintain the current unemployment rate of 4.2% [5]