美联储降息及扩表政策
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黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251222
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 01:15
1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase and may be at the beginning of the trend. The mid - term trend is expected to be strong due to Fed's potential rate - cut and expansionary policies, as well as geopolitical risks. However, short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and external market linkages [7]. - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and may be at the end of the trend. The price increase is driven by Fed's rate - cutting strengthening its financial attribute and the booming industrial demand such as photovoltaic. The mid - term trend is also strong, but short - term attention should be paid to US non - farm data and COMEX low - inventory delivery risks [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is sideways, currently possibly at the start of the trend. The mid - term is expected to be strong [7]. - Trend logic: Last week, gold contract 2602 showed a pattern of "policy - driven surge - technical correction - stable oscillation". The Fed's rate - cut and expansionary policies opened up the upward space, and geopolitical risks provided support. Later in the week, profit - taking and technical adjustments led to high - level oscillations, but the expectation of loose macro - liquidity still dominates the mid - term strong pattern [7]. - Strategy advice: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For Shanghai Gold contract 2602, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish, with the upper resistance at 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support at 935 - 950 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips [10]. - This week's strategy advice: For Shanghai Gold contract 2602, be cautiously bullish, with the upper resistance at 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support at 935 - 950 yuan/gram. Buy on dips [11]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [20][22][24]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and may be at the end of the trend [33]. - Trend logic: Last week, Shanghai Silver contract 2602 showed a pattern of "oscillation - surge - stabilization". Driven by the Fed's rate - cut strengthening its financial attribute and booming industrial demand like photovoltaic, its increase significantly exceeded that of gold. After breaking through key resistance, there was a small correction due to profit - taking, but the mid - term strong pattern is supported by loose macro - policies and tight spot supply [33]. - Strategy advice: It is recommended to wait and see [34]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For Silver contract 2602, it was in a strong position at high levels, with the upper resistance at 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips [37]. - This week's strategy advice: For Silver contract 2602, it is in a strong position at high levels, with the lower support at 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kg. Buy on dips [38]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][47][50].