Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that copper prices may maintain a short - term oscillating upward trend, supported by market expectations of global demand growth and supply tightness. However, market sentiment may be affected by changes in expectations of the Fed's policies, and trading may become subdued and price fluctuations limited as the Chinese Spring Festival approaches [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market On February 12, 2026, the main copper futures contract (CU.SHF) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed an oscillating upward trend. The opening price was 103,620 yuan/ton, the highest price reached 103,730 yuan/ton, the lowest price dropped to 101,840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 102,330 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase from the previous trading day. The price fluctuated within a range of 1,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,347 lots, and the open interest was 147,631 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market Basis Analysis On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 102,330 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai spot copper price was 101,910 yuan/ton. The futures price was 420 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, indicating a futures premium [3]. 3. Market Dynamics The U.S. non - farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, suggesting that the U.S. economy remains resilient and strengthening the case for the Fed to maintain high interest rates. China's CPI year - on - year increase in January fell to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%, reflecting weak domestic demand but stabilizing industrial prices. The overall macro - environment has a neutral supporting effect on gold [4]. 4. Market Outlook In the short term, copper prices are expected to continue an oscillating upward trend. Market expectations of global demand growth and supply tightness will support copper prices, but changes in market expectations of the Fed's policies may affect market sentiment. Additionally, as the Chinese Spring Festival approaches, market trading may become quiet, and price fluctuations may be limited [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is supporting gold prices, creating opportunities for upward movement in gold prices, with key support levels at $5050 and $5000, and resistance at $5100 and $5200 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have been fluctuating around high levels, with a potential for upward breakout due to factors such as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank demand [2][6]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly higher than December's 50,000 and above the market expectation of 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.4% to 4.3% [2][6]. - Despite strong non-farm data, the market still anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, which continues to support gold prices [3][7]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold attempted to break above the $5100 level but failed to maintain that position, resulting in a high-level consolidation [3][7]. - Key support levels to watch include the daily low of $5044 and the psychological level of $5000, while resistance remains at $5100, with a potential upward target of $5200 [3][7]. - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with the 5-day moving average forming a golden cross, while the MACD indicator's bearish crossover is slowing down, indicating a potential rebound demand for gold [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded strongly, maintaining a bullish outlook despite strong non-farm payroll data that cooled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical factors [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 11, gold opened at $5027.38 per ounce, experienced fluctuations, reached a high of $5119.05, then fell to a low of $4964.04, and closed at $5084.54, with a daily range of $155.01 and a gain of $57.16, or 1.14% [1][10]. - The market is currently digesting strong U.S. employment reports, but gold remains above bullish support levels, with long-term buying expected to drive momentum [3][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Although the January non-farm payroll data was strong, it is viewed as insufficient to alter future expectations, with skepticism surrounding the data due to previous ADP reports and potential government shutdown impacts on February's figures [5][14]. - Upcoming economic indicators include initial jobless claims and January's CPI, with expectations leaning towards a bullish outlook for gold [3][12]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold has rebounded from a downward trend, maintaining a bullish outlook above the 5-month moving average, suggesting that the bearish sentiment from January has dissipated [5][14]. - Weekly charts show that gold has returned above the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating a potential for further strength in the market [7][16]. - Daily charts reflect a reduction in volatility but maintain an upward trend, with bullish momentum expected to continue [7][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a continued slowdown in non-farm employment growth, with December's addition dropping to 50,000, below the expected 65,000, and a downward revision of 76,000 for October and November combined [2] - The private sector added 37,000 jobs in December, with an average of 43,000 jobs added in November and December, indicating a persistent trend of slowing job growth [2] - The leisure and hospitality sectors contributed significantly to job growth, adding 47,000 and 41,000 jobs respectively, while manufacturing continued to show negative job growth, indicating weak demand in the sector [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the labor force participation rate decreasing to 62.4%, suggesting a complex labor market dynamic [6] - The number of job vacancies in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since 2021, indicating a growing mismatch between labor supply and demand [8] - Average hourly earnings in December increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, reflecting resilience in wage growth despite broader economic challenges [9][12] Group 3 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January decreased significantly from 14% to 5%, indicating a shift in market sentiment following the release of the non-farm data [17] - The overall labor market conditions suggest an increasing supply-demand imbalance, which may continue to exert pressure on the employment market moving forward [17]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and changing monetary policy expectations, with current prices showing a strong upward trend. Group 1: Market Movements - As of January 5, the latest price for London gold is $4,393.20 per ounce, reflecting an increase of $65.21 or 1.51% from the previous trading day [1] - The opening price for the day was $4,331.59 per ounce, with a daily high of $4,419.54 and a low of $4,331.59 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of the president, triggered strong risk-averse sentiment, causing gold prices to spike with a daily fluctuation exceeding $90 [2] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy are evolving, with predictions of 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 totaling 50-75 basis points, while maintaining an 85.1% probability of no rate change in January [2] - The ongoing increase in gold purchases by global central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, which has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months, continues to support gold prices in the long term [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the early Asian trading session, London gold opened at $4,372.10 and quickly surpassed the key level of $4,390, reaching a high of $4,395.82 before consolidating in a narrow range [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a bullish trend, with prices above the 5-day moving average of $4,370 and the 10-day moving average of $4,355, suggesting a recovery in upward momentum [3] - The daily chart shows a W-shaped bottom formation, with support around $4,300 and a neckline between $4,380 and $4,390, indicating a generally bullish technical outlook [3]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase and may be at the beginning of the trend. The mid - term trend is expected to be strong due to Fed's potential rate - cut and expansionary policies, as well as geopolitical risks. However, short - term attention should be paid to policy implementation and external market linkages [7]. - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and may be at the end of the trend. The price increase is driven by Fed's rate - cutting strengthening its financial attribute and the booming industrial demand such as photovoltaic. The mid - term trend is also strong, but short - term attention should be paid to US non - farm data and COMEX low - inventory delivery risks [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is sideways, currently possibly at the start of the trend. The mid - term is expected to be strong [7]. - Trend logic: Last week, gold contract 2602 showed a pattern of "policy - driven surge - technical correction - stable oscillation". The Fed's rate - cut and expansionary policies opened up the upward space, and geopolitical risks provided support. Later in the week, profit - taking and technical adjustments led to high - level oscillations, but the expectation of loose macro - liquidity still dominates the mid - term strong pattern [7]. - Strategy advice: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For Shanghai Gold contract 2602, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish, with the upper resistance at 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support at 935 - 950 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips [10]. - This week's strategy advice: For Shanghai Gold contract 2602, be cautiously bullish, with the upper resistance at 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support at 935 - 950 yuan/gram. Buy on dips [11]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [20][22][24]. Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase and may be at the end of the trend [33]. - Trend logic: Last week, Shanghai Silver contract 2602 showed a pattern of "oscillation - surge - stabilization". Driven by the Fed's rate - cut strengthening its financial attribute and booming industrial demand like photovoltaic, its increase significantly exceeded that of gold. After breaking through key resistance, there was a small correction due to profit - taking, but the mid - term strong pattern is supported by loose macro - policies and tight spot supply [33]. - Strategy advice: It is recommended to wait and see [34]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For Silver contract 2602, it was in a strong position at high levels, with the upper resistance at 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips [37]. - This week's strategy advice: For Silver contract 2602, it is in a strong position at high levels, with the lower support at 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kg. Buy on dips [38]. 3.3 Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [45][47][50].

Group 1: Macro Analysis - Tax revenue growth has declined from high levels, while non-tax revenue shows marginal improvement, and government spending has significantly increased, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related budgets [2] - Local government debt limits have been set and used to supplement local government financial resources, leading to improved government fund revenues [2] - The issuance of new special bonds for the year is nearing completion, which is beneficial for stabilizing infrastructure investment [2] Group 2: Employment and Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, attributed to a "technical" disturbance from government shutdowns, with many federal employees on forced leave counted as unemployed [3] - Despite the rise in unemployment, the private sector remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term, despite the unexpected rise in unemployment [3] Group 3: Company Research - Chiwan Technology - Chiwan Technology (9911.HK) is positioned as a leading player in overseas social media, focusing on a "bush" product matrix strategy [4] - The company has demonstrated a clear path to growth and profitability through successful product replication strategies and extensive layout in emerging social entertainment markets [4] - Revenue projections for Chiwan Technology are estimated at 6.9 billion, 8.41 billion, and 9.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 0.95 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.49 billion RMB respectively [4] - The company is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 14.5 HKD [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4328.39 per ounce, up 0.61%, with a high of $4331.20 and a low of $4300.39 [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding the economist's expectation of 50,000, indicating a strong rebound from the previous month's significant decline [1] - Despite the job growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021, attributed to technical factors related to the end of a government shutdown [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the Netherlands and announced that the Ukrainian negotiation team would visit the U.S. soon to discuss plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January 2024 is 24.4%, with a 75.6% chance of maintaining current rates [2] - Analysts suggest that investors should closely monitor upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve actions, as low rates and global uncertainty are expected to support gold's upward potential [2] Group 3: Technical Market Insights - The gold market opened at $4306.4, briefly rose to $4318.2, then fell to a low of $4271.5 before rebounding due to non-farm data, reaching a high of $4335.1 [3] - The daily closing price was $4301.7, forming a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, indicating potential consolidation within a range [3] - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring specific support and resistance levels, with targets set for $4290, $4280, and $4270 [3]

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $4,330, with a recent increase of 0.74%, reaching a high of $4,334.23 and a low of $4,300.39, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November shows a job increase of only 64,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, highlighting a weakening job market [2] - The healthcare and construction sectors are supporting job growth, while the federal government and transportation sectors are contracting, reflecting mixed industry performance [2] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with silver prices reaching new highs, indicating a divergence in market performance [3] - The non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, but the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate has been a key factor for the increase in gold prices [3] - The market has shown a pattern of early morning upward movements over the past three trading days, but caution is advised as the market remains in a state of oscillation [3]

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 50,000 and recovering from a loss of 105,000 jobs in October[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%[15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.6%[15] Economic Insights - The rise in unemployment is attributed to a "technical" disruption from the government shutdown, which temporarily inflated the unemployment figures due to forced leave of federal employees[2] - Private sector employment remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025[2] - Retail data for October showed stability, with core retail sales growth exceeding expectations, indicating that consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, is stabilizing[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the unexpected rise in unemployment, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term[5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with probabilities of 44.1% in April and 34.5% in July, while the probability of pausing rate cuts in January 2026 stands at 73.4%[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in September, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among younger demographics[4] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by 228,000 in November, reflecting the impact of the government shutdown on temporary unemployment[4] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October[42] - Year-on-year wage growth also decreased to 3.5%, compared to 3.7% in October, suggesting reduced inflationary pressures[42]