Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The market is concerned about the VAT collection on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds after August 8. Old bonds have a tax - exemption advantage, so there may be a rush to buy them this week. After the tax is imposed, new bonds may need to offer a tax compensation, leading to an increase in their yields. The impact on treasury bond futures is limited if the CTD remains old bonds [11]. - Long - term: Taxation mainly affects long - term bonds by about ten basis points. Since July, the market risk preference has increased, with the stock market rising, commodity prices warming up, and inflation expectations rising, which put pressure on the bond market. However, the bond market did not panic during the adjustment. The sustainability of the commodity and stock market rally is questionable, and the bond market may rebound in the short term. The bull - market foundation of bonds remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to economic data in August, especially on the domestic demand side [12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly due to loose funds and the rebound of commodities. The yields of major interest - rate bonds declined slightly, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield down 0.65bp to 1.6975%. The money market was stable and loose at the beginning of the month, with a net withdrawal of 1705 billion yuan through open - market operations [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: Short - term, the tax policy on treasury bond interest income may lead to a rush for old bonds. Long - term, the bond market is affected by the increase in risk preference, but the actual impact may be limited due to the uncertainty of economic recovery [11][12] 2. Industry News - The US may raise import tariffs on Indian products, and India will take measures to safeguard its interests. South Korea has obtained a promise from the US in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical industries. The global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Germany plans to launch a 1000 - billion - euro investment fund [13][14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts, including prices, trading volumes, and positions [6] - **Money Market**: Shows the changes in SHIBOR, bank - to - bank repurchase rates, etc [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Presents the mean curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [35]