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中信证券:投资者风险偏好有望保持高位,股票表现占优的格局预计还将持续
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-30 16:46
Core Viewpoint - The significant stock-bond seesaw market since the second quarter is attributed to the complex macroeconomic environment, where the economic cycle has bottomed out but recovery mainly relies on policy-driven factors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current stock-bond seesaw market is somewhat similar to that of 2015, driven by a global emerging market bull market, accelerated entry of medium to long-term funds, and a rapid increase in market risk appetite [1] - Investors' risk appetite is expected to remain high, with a continued favorable performance of stocks anticipated [1] Group 2: Valuation and Inflation - High market valuations are not necessarily a barrier to market growth, with a focus on whether inflation can rebound in the fourth quarter [1] - Bond yields have returned to reasonable levels corresponding to policy rates due to the stock-bond seesaw effect, indicating a gradual desensitization of bonds to this effect [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The high risk appetite among investors suggests that short-term interest rates are unlikely to quickly return to a rapid downward trend, with short-term rates expected to fluctuate [1] - Waiting for clearer interest rate cut guidance from the central bank may be a better strategy for investors [1]