Group 1 - The US stock market has recently reached historical highs, but several analysts warn that the risk of a bubble is significantly increasing [1][3] - The current market environment shows extreme investor optimism, with risk appetite at a multi-month high, which may indicate an impending correction due to the high level of consensus among investors [1][3] Group 2 - Global central banks' shift towards loose monetary policy has created a conducive environment for stock market bubbles, with US, UK, and European central banks significantly lowering borrowing costs, reducing global policy rates from 4.8% last year to 4.4% [3] - It is expected that this rate will further decline to 3.9% within the next 12 months, providing ample liquidity support for asset price increases [3] - US policymakers are considering regulatory reforms to increase retail investor participation, which may further amplify market volatility, as a larger retail investor base often leads to increased liquidity and volatility, key drivers of bubble formation [3] Group 3 - A recent fund manager survey indicates that investor risk appetite has grown at the fastest pace since 2001 over the past three months, with the largest increase in US stock allocation since December of the previous year [4] - The allocation to technology stocks has seen the largest three-month increase since 2009, reflecting extreme optimism that historically appears near market tops [4] - Fund managers' cash levels have dropped to 3.9%, falling below the critical 4.0% threshold, which is viewed as a clear "sell signal" in trading rules [4] - The proportion of respondents believing that the economy will not enter a recession in the next year has completely reversed, with pessimistic expectations nearly vanishing, indicating a one-sided market consensus that could trigger rapid adjustments with any negative data [4]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a one-week high, closing at $9,778.50 per ton, up $112.00 or 1.16% due to increased investor risk appetite and bargain buying [1][2] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 2.00% to $2,629.50, zinc up 2.98% to $2,818.50, and lead up 1.88% to $2,010.00 [2] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual copper production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [4] Group 2 - Analysts noted that U.S. economic data has improved, boosting hopes for better copper demand and reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [4] - LME copper inventories have been rising, particularly in Asian warehouses, as some traders bet on increased buying following recent price declines, though uncertainty remains about whether this will materialize [4] - Peru's copper production fell by 4.6% year-on-year in May, totaling 220,849 tons, highlighting challenges in one of the world's largest copper-producing countries [5] Group 3 - Nickel prices underperformed due to rising inventories and weak demand, with Commerzbank lowering its nickel price forecast for the end of 2025 from $18,000 to $16,000 per ton [6] - Three-month aluminum reached a three-week high of $2,637 per ton, reflecting positive market sentiment [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The end of the conflict between Israel and Iran significantly boosted investor risk appetite, leading to substantial gains in the equity markets of A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks [9]. - The US may reach agreements with 10 major trading partners, and whether the China - US agreement is signed needs further observation [10]. - Focus on A - share structural opportunities such as banks and non - ferrous metals, and the possibility of short - term long opportunities for gold [11]. 3. Summary by Related Content Equity Markets - In the past week (20250623 - 20250629), US stocks soared, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 4.25%, 3.44%, and 3.82% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index rose 5.50%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.20% [2]. - Most A - share sectors rose, with the wind all - A index up 3.56%. The comprehensive finance sector led the gains, with a weekly increase of over 14%. Other sectors with weekly increases of over 5% included computer, comprehensive, national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals [3]. Bond Markets - In the past week, interest - rate bond prices slightly declined, and the yield curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.10%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.66 BP to 1.6462% [4]. - The capital price increased significantly, and the central bank made a net injection of 10672 billion yuan in open - market operations [5]. - The bond market leverage level decreased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume dropping from 8.32 trillion yuan on June 20, 2025, to 7.77 trillion yuan on June 27, 2025 [6]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the curve shifted downward overall. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 9 BP to 4.29% as of June 27, 2025 [7]. Foreign Exchange and Commodities - The US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index dropped 1.52%. Gold prices fell, with the London gold spot price down 2.86% to $3271.75 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold spot price down 1.81% to 763.3 yuan per gram [8].