中国数万亿存款去哪了？ 业内权威称"搬家说"不严谨 作者：亓宁 央行近日披露的10月金融统计数据报告显示，当月居民存款、企业存款分别减少1.34万亿元、1.09万亿 元，非银存款则增加了1.85万亿元。 不少市场人士认为，央行数据进一步表明，股市赚钱效应正持续带动居民存款搬家。但第一财经从多位 业内权威人士处了解到，"存款搬家"其实说法并不严谨，居民、企业和非银机构用存款买卖股票，只是 存款和股票在不同主体之间的重新分配，买股票的人存款减少、股票增多，卖股票的人股票减少、存款 增多，整体上看存款是大体不变的。当然，从大类资产市值的角度看，股市上涨，会带来股票总市值上 升，相对于存款的比重会有所提高。 一位理财行业人士对第一财经表示，相比更受关注的规模数据变化，"存款搬家"的机遇更多在结构层 面，"固收+"做得好不好、如何做好成为业内越来越关注的议题。 但当下，固收类产品仍是理财市场的主流，多数机构发力"固收+"采取的是"小步慢跑"策略。第一财经 记者采访了解到，今年以来，不少理财公司的"固收+"产品都取得了不错的成绩，少数产品年化收益率 可至5%，甚至7%以上。有券商测算，今年全市场"固收+"理财规模增长预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the central bank indicates a significant shift in deposit patterns, with a notable decrease in both resident and corporate deposits, while non-bank deposits have increased, suggesting a reallocation of funds rather than a true "deposit migration" [3][6]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In October, resident deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, and corporate deposits fell by 1.09 trillion yuan, while non-bank deposits rose by 1.85 trillion yuan [3]. - The term "deposit migration" is deemed inaccurate as it reflects a redistribution of deposits among different entities rather than a net decrease in total deposits [3][6]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to the expansion of wealth management products and sustained trading activity in the stock market [6]. Group 2: Wealth Management Products - Fixed income products remain the mainstream in the wealth management market, with many institutions adopting a cautious approach to "fixed income plus" strategies [4]. - Some wealth management products have achieved annualized returns of up to 5% or even over 7% this year, with an estimated growth of over 1.4 trillion yuan in the overall market for "fixed income plus" products [4][10]. - The popularity of "fixed income plus" products is driven by declining interest rates and the need for higher returns, as the one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1% [10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a notable shift in investor risk preferences, with an increase in the number of high-risk preference investors compared to low-risk preference investors, reversing a four-year downward trend [7]. - The transition to "fixed income plus" products is seen as a suitable pathway for new investors moving from low-risk to equity assets [9]. - Institutions are beginning to diversify their portfolios by increasing allocations to equity-like assets within "fixed income plus" products, reflecting a growing acceptance of volatility among institutional investors [11][16]. Group 4: Market Growth and Challenges - The total market size for wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.42% [13]. - The transition to "fixed income plus" strategies is progressing slowly due to investors' limited acceptance of net value fluctuations and the need for improved research capabilities among wealth management firms [13][14]. - Balancing risk and return remains a critical challenge for wealth management companies as they navigate the ongoing "deposit migration" trend [14].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are facing downward pressure following a week of significant sell-offs, with New York gold futures dropping below $4000 per ounce, indicating potential further declines in the short term [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - After a period of consolidation, international gold prices rose from around $3300 per ounce to over $4000, reaching a historical high of $4381.21 on October 20, driven by geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased central bank gold purchases [2]. - The most actively traded December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell approximately 2.9% to close at $4019.70 [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced short-term driving factors, profit-taking by investors following previous price increases, alleviated concerns over international trade tensions, and a rise in investor risk appetite [1]. - Analysts from Citigroup suggest that expectations of trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries, along with the potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, may exert downward pressure on gold prices, with a possibility of falling back to $3800 within the next three months [1]. - John Reed from the World Gold Council noted that demand for gold from central banks has weakened compared to previous levels, indicating that a deeper market adjustment could provide some breathing space for professional traders [1].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced a significant drop of over 5% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline in five years, primarily due to profit-taking by investors and easing concerns over international trade tensions [1]. Group 1: Price Movement - On October 21, the international spot gold price fell approximately 5.3% to $4,123.85 per ounce, with an intraday drop of 6.3%, the largest decline in over a decade [1]. - Since late August, gold prices surged from around $3,300 per ounce to over $4,000, driven by geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, and actions by central banks [1]. - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by about 60% [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including profit-taking by investors, a recovery in risk appetite, and reduced concerns over international trade tensions [1]. - Analysts believe that the long-term driving factors behind the recent surge in gold prices remain intact, suggesting a potential recovery in gold prices in the coming months [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses crucial indicators that reflect investor risk appetite, highlighting the importance of understanding these metrics for making informed investment decisions [1] - It emphasizes the relationship between market volatility and investor sentiment, noting that increased volatility often leads to a more cautious approach from investors [1] - The analysis includes various financial metrics and market trends that serve as barometers for assessing risk tolerance among investors [1] Group 2 - Key indicators mentioned include stock market performance, bond yields, and economic data releases, which collectively influence investor behavior [1] - The article also points out that shifts in these indicators can signal potential changes in market dynamics, prompting investors to adjust their strategies accordingly [1] - It concludes by stressing the necessity for investors to stay vigilant and responsive to these indicators to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of valuing stock assets, emphasizing that if the price exceeds the value, the asset is considered overvalued and potentially unattractive [2] - A game was conducted where participants were asked how much they would pay for a company with a stable annual profit of 1 million, resulting in an average matching price between 8 million and 15 million [3][4] - The average price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8-15 times the annual profit, aligning with the long-term average P/E ratios of the A-share and Hong Kong markets [4] Group 2 - Different investors have varying risk appetites, leading to a range of bid prices; during bear markets, average prices tend to be lower, while in bull markets, they can reach 30-40 times earnings [5] - The article highlights the strategy of buying when most investors are pessimistic and prices are low, and selling when optimism drives prices higher [5] - Various valuation methods exist, indicating that there is no single approach to determining the value of an asset [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices, which fell by 1%, reflects a market adjustment to Federal Reserve policy expectations and a temporary increase in investor risk appetite [1][2]. Market Review - On September 30, during European trading hours, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 1%. The past week saw increased volatility in gold prices, indicating fluctuating market sentiment [2][10]. Driving Factors Analysis - **Strengthening Dollar and Interest Rate Expectations**: Recent robust U.S. economic data has led to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a stronger dollar and higher 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which have pressured gold prices [4]. - **Rising Risk Appetite**: The performance of risk assets, such as U.S. stocks and certain emerging market indices, has improved, leading to a recovery in investor sentiment and reduced demand for gold [5]. - **Technical Factors**: Gold faced resistance near key levels, with intensified trading activity leading to a 1% drop, potentially exacerbated by technical selling and stop-loss orders [6]. - **Temporary Easing of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Variables**: A decrease in market focus on certain geopolitical risks has weakened the buying momentum for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Market Interpretation and Investor Sentiment - Market participants exhibit divided interpretations, with some institutions noting limited changes in gold ETF holdings, suggesting that long-term capital has not significantly exited the market, and that short-term fluctuations may be more emotional adjustments [8]. Future Outlook and Key Focus Areas - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on: 1. The Federal Reserve's policy direction [9] 2. Potential declines in U.S. inflation and economic data over the coming months, which could lead to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent 1% decline in spot gold prices indicates significant short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar and rising interest rate expectations. However, gold retains its strategic value as a long-term safe-haven and store of value, warranting a broader examination of global macro trends and risk dynamics rather than solely focusing on short-term price movements [12].

Core Viewpoint - The significant stock-bond seesaw market since the second quarter is attributed to the complex macroeconomic environment, where the economic cycle has bottomed out but recovery mainly relies on policy-driven factors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current stock-bond seesaw market is somewhat similar to that of 2015, driven by a global emerging market bull market, accelerated entry of medium to long-term funds, and a rapid increase in market risk appetite [1] - Investors' risk appetite is expected to remain high, with a continued favorable performance of stocks anticipated [1] Group 2: Valuation and Inflation - High market valuations are not necessarily a barrier to market growth, with a focus on whether inflation can rebound in the fourth quarter [1] - Bond yields have returned to reasonable levels corresponding to policy rates due to the stock-bond seesaw effect, indicating a gradual desensitization of bonds to this effect [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The high risk appetite among investors suggests that short-term interest rates are unlikely to quickly return to a rapid downward trend, with short-term rates expected to fluctuate [1] - Waiting for clearer interest rate cut guidance from the central bank may be a better strategy for investors [1]

Core Insights - The average annualized return of wealth management products in the first half of the year was 2.12%, down 68 basis points from 2.8% in the same period last year [1][5] - The total scale of the wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 720 billion yuan [2][3] - The number of investors holding wealth management products increased by over 8% to 136 million, with a significant influx of new investors in the second quarter [4][5] Wealth Management Market Overview - As of June 30, 2025, there were 194 banks and 32 wealth management companies offering 41,800 products, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, which is 3.72 trillion yuan less than the public fund scale [2] - The wealth management market's growth rate has slowed, with a year-to-date increase of 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [2][3] - The wealth management companies' product scale reached 27.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.6% of the total market, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase from the beginning of the year [3] Investor Behavior and Preferences - The number of personal investors increased by 10.29 million in the first half of the year, with a notable shift in risk appetite towards higher-risk products [4][5] - The average annualized return for wealth management products was 2.12%, with a total of 389.6 billion yuan generated for investors, marking a 14.18% increase from the previous year [5] - The proportion of low-risk and high-risk investors has shown a contrasting trend, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5] Product Structure and Trends - Cash management products have seen a significant decline, with a scale reduction of nearly 1 trillion yuan, attributed to low yields and regulatory constraints [7][8] - As of June 30, 2025, the scale of fixed-income products was 29.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 97.20% of the total, while mixed and equity products saw slight increases [8][9] - The trend towards longer-term products is evident, with over 72.86% of closed-end products having a duration of more than one year [10] Asset Allocation Strategies - Wealth management products have increased their allocation to public funds, cash, and deposits, while reducing exposure to credit bonds [11][12] - The total investment assets of wealth management products reached 32.97 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in cash and bank deposits [11] - The allocation to public funds rose to 1.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a growing preference for high liquidity assets [12]

Group 1 - The US stock market has recently reached historical highs, but several analysts warn that the risk of a bubble is significantly increasing [1][3] - The current market environment shows extreme investor optimism, with risk appetite at a multi-month high, which may indicate an impending correction due to the high level of consensus among investors [1][3] Group 2 - Global central banks' shift towards loose monetary policy has created a conducive environment for stock market bubbles, with US, UK, and European central banks significantly lowering borrowing costs, reducing global policy rates from 4.8% last year to 4.4% [3] - It is expected that this rate will further decline to 3.9% within the next 12 months, providing ample liquidity support for asset price increases [3] - US policymakers are considering regulatory reforms to increase retail investor participation, which may further amplify market volatility, as a larger retail investor base often leads to increased liquidity and volatility, key drivers of bubble formation [3] Group 3 - A recent fund manager survey indicates that investor risk appetite has grown at the fastest pace since 2001 over the past three months, with the largest increase in US stock allocation since December of the previous year [4] - The allocation to technology stocks has seen the largest three-month increase since 2009, reflecting extreme optimism that historically appears near market tops [4] - Fund managers' cash levels have dropped to 3.9%, falling below the critical 4.0% threshold, which is viewed as a clear "sell signal" in trading rules [4] - The proportion of respondents believing that the economy will not enter a recession in the next year has completely reversed, with pessimistic expectations nearly vanishing, indicating a one-sided market consensus that could trigger rapid adjustments with any negative data [4]