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中国VC/PE已死?听听LP怎么说
创业邦· 2025-08-30 01:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) in China, highlighting a shift in investment strategies among family offices and the challenges faced in the current market environment [4][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Changes - Family offices have reduced their equity allocation from around 10% to approximately 2%, shifting focus towards fixed income and alternative investment products [6][8]. - The perception of the primary market has evolved, with family offices needing to adapt to a new stage of investment that diverges from traditional VC practices [6][7]. - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of returns in the primary market, with a shift towards high-interest debt instruments that may complicate recovery of investments [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between limited partners (LPs) and general partners (GPs) has become more adversarial, with increased scrutiny and accountability leading to a cycle of mutual exhaustion [9][10]. - The primary market is experiencing pressure due to poor economic fundamentals and a lack of liquidity in the secondary market, which affects overall investment performance [10][11]. - The influx of state-owned capital has distorted project valuations, leading to irrational funding of projects that may not warrant investment [10][11]. Group 3: Risk and Return Considerations - The article emphasizes the high survivor bias in the primary market, cautioning against unrealistic expectations of returns and highlighting the difficulty in assessing the true risk of investments [15][18]. - The need for GPs to evolve in their asset management capabilities is underscored, particularly in risk control and exit strategies [14][15]. - Family offices are increasingly looking for liquidity and clear exit paths in their investments, favoring structured products that offer better risk-adjusted returns [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of equity allocation remains uncertain, but family offices are not entirely abandoning the space; they are instead focusing on opportunities with better liquidity and defined exit strategies [18][19]. - Alternative investments are being prioritized over equity, with a focus on products that provide superior returns and liquidity [19][23]. - The article concludes that investment decisions are inherently retrospective, and success is often only recognized post-factum, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of investment outcomes [19].