以下文章来源于VCA创投社 ，作者星辰 VCA创投社 . 学投资，做投资，塑造新时期实战投资家！ 最近一级市场的状态像是"崴脚" ——政策开始转暖，项目陆续启动，大家表面都在爬，实际上 很多机构根本还没能站起来。 2 0 2 5年刚过半，关于"一级市场回暖了没" "拐点到了吗"的讨论已经在各路朋友圈吵翻天。有的 说"项目越来越多"，有的说"LP已经开始频繁见面了"，也有的说"发科创债是一种被迫的选 择"……像极了你在医院输液，一边看朋友圈有人打卡健身房，一边低头看看自己还吊着水。 今天我们不聊愿景，只聊现实。 来讲讲这个市场为什么崴了、现在脚肿到什么程度，还有 ——真正把它困住的，到底是什么。 01 "假装回暖"这事儿，大家都挺会演 从监管看，政策确实在转向积极。一年多来改革密集出台，鼓励科创、推动注册制、提升过会 率，确实有点 "春天来了"的气息。 "你觉得拐点到了吗？" 结果回答也很分裂。 但一到地面，你就会发现，这场 "回暖"是夹着体温计演的。 创投机构是第一个看出这点的群体。很多 GP从去年开始频繁出差，看项目、找钱、谈合作 ——听上去像是恢复元气，其实很多人不过是在硬扛。"不出差，就感觉自己已经出局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) in China, highlighting a shift in investment strategies among family offices and the challenges faced in the current market environment [4][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Changes - Family offices have reduced their equity allocation from around 10% to approximately 2%, shifting focus towards fixed income and alternative investment products [6][8]. - The perception of the primary market has evolved, with family offices needing to adapt to a new stage of investment that diverges from traditional VC practices [6][7]. - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of returns in the primary market, with a shift towards high-interest debt instruments that may complicate recovery of investments [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between limited partners (LPs) and general partners (GPs) has become more adversarial, with increased scrutiny and accountability leading to a cycle of mutual exhaustion [9][10]. - The primary market is experiencing pressure due to poor economic fundamentals and a lack of liquidity in the secondary market, which affects overall investment performance [10][11]. - The influx of state-owned capital has distorted project valuations, leading to irrational funding of projects that may not warrant investment [10][11]. Group 3: Risk and Return Considerations - The article emphasizes the high survivor bias in the primary market, cautioning against unrealistic expectations of returns and highlighting the difficulty in assessing the true risk of investments [15][18]. - The need for GPs to evolve in their asset management capabilities is underscored, particularly in risk control and exit strategies [14][15]. - Family offices are increasingly looking for liquidity and clear exit paths in their investments, favoring structured products that offer better risk-adjusted returns [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of equity allocation remains uncertain, but family offices are not entirely abandoning the space; they are instead focusing on opportunities with better liquidity and defined exit strategies [18][19]. - Alternative investments are being prioritized over equity, with a focus on products that provide superior returns and liquidity [19][23]. - The article concludes that investment decisions are inherently retrospective, and success is often only recognized post-factum, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of investment outcomes [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of staying updated with the latest trends and developments in the investment sector, particularly in the context of venture capital and startup ecosystems [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - The article highlights the dynamic nature of the investment landscape, noting that new opportunities and challenges continuously arise in the venture capital space [1] - It discusses the significance of networking and building relationships within the investment community to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The article also points out the role of technology and innovation in shaping investment strategies and decision-making processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of staying updated with the latest trends and developments in the investment sector, particularly in the context of venture capital and startup ecosystems [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - The article highlights the dynamic nature of the investment landscape, noting that new opportunities frequently arise in various sectors, necessitating continuous research and analysis [1] - It discusses the significance of understanding market shifts and consumer behavior, which can lead to identifying potential investment opportunities [1] - The piece also points out the role of technology in transforming traditional investment practices, suggesting that companies must adapt to these changes to remain competitive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current predicament of government-guided funds, highlighting the stagnation in both primary and secondary markets, leading to a situation where funds are unable to be invested or withdrawn, resulting in a "dead water" scenario for these funds [2][5][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The primary and secondary markets are experiencing a lack of liquidity, which has persisted for several years, making it difficult for funds to exit investments [2][3]. - The suggestion to relax IPO audits to facilitate exits is seen as misguided, as it may lead to the listing of subpar projects, further exacerbating market issues [5][8][41]. Group 2: Fund Management and Investment Quality - The core issue with government funds is the prevalence of low-quality projects, which are unable to generate returns or exit strategies [19][22]. - There is a critique of the investment culture that prioritizes quick returns and speculative practices over sustainable business models and profitability [15][44]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The article emphasizes the need for strong regulation to create a fair and healthy market environment, which is essential for attracting investment and ensuring liquidity [42][43]. - It argues against the notion that strict IPO audits are the root cause of liquidity issues, asserting that the focus should be on improving project quality rather than loosening regulatory standards [41][25]. Group 4: Economic Strategy Shifts - The discussion reflects a shift in economic strategy from supply-side reforms to stimulating demand through consumer spending, indicating a broader change in governmental economic policy [34][36]. - The article suggests that past strategies of subsidizing industries have led to overcapacity and the creation of non-viable projects, necessitating a reevaluation of investment approaches [33][27]. Group 5: Future Directions - Future investment strategies should focus on understanding industry dynamics and improving post-investment management to avoid repeating past mistakes [53][55]. - The need for a more specialized approach in investment practices is highlighted, advocating for deeper industry knowledge and management capabilities [54][56].

Group 1 - The primary market is experiencing a "real but not dramatic" recovery in the first half of 2025, with investors showing a "calm confidence" in their investment decisions [2][4] - The frequency of investments has increased, with many institutions making more than five investments in the first half of the year, a significant rise compared to the previous year [4][18] - The valuation structure is stabilizing, with a reduction in valuation discrepancies between primary and secondary markets, which is crucial for investor confidence in exits [6][7] Group 2 - Hong Kong has surpassed A-shares as the primary exit channel for investments, with over half of the surveyed investors preferring IPOs in Hong Kong [8][15] - The main reasons for favoring Hong Kong IPOs include high process certainty, improved liquidity, and reasonable issuance valuations [13][15] - Nearly 50% of investors believe that the pace of Hong Kong IPOs will continue to rise, with many actively communicating with portfolio companies to expedite IPO preparations [15][17] Group 3 - The most active sectors in the primary market are embodied intelligence and AI applications, driven by significant financing events and the gradual industrialization of AI [20] - However, many projects in these sectors are still in the demo stage, leading to concerns about high valuations without clear revenue support [20][22] - Investors are shifting focus towards projects with proven revenue capabilities and those with technological barriers in hardware components [20][27] Group 4 - There is a notable decline in interest in sectors like aerospace and low-altitude economy, attributed to their reliance on policy support and unclear commercialization paths [24] - The investment sentiment in the medical sector has shifted from "cold observation" to "selective investment," focusing on profitable projects and AI applications in healthcare [25][27] - The focus on North America has decreased significantly, with Southeast Asia and Europe emerging as new focal points for investment [29][32] Group 5 - Companies are encouraged to reduce reliance on the U.S. market by diversifying supply chains and exploring alternative overseas markets to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [38] - The global strategy is evolving from "going out" to leveraging international capital markets for returns, highlighting the importance of diverse market opportunities [38][39] - Investors are now more focused on evaluating exit paths, technological barriers, and industry linkages rather than chasing high valuations [39]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of staying updated with the latest trends and developments in the investment sector, particularly in the context of venture capital and startup ecosystems [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - The article highlights the dynamic nature of the investment landscape, noting that new opportunities and challenges continuously arise in the venture capital space [1] - It discusses the significance of networking and building relationships within the investment community to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The article also points out the role of technology and innovation in shaping investment strategies and decision-making processes [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in leverage in the interbank bond market, with a mixed performance in the primary market and overall positive sentiment in the secondary market, leading to an increase in bond duration and active trading of ultra-long bonds [2][4][7] - In the funding market, the demand for expansion has cooled, with a decrease in net inflow for major borrowing parties and an increase in net inflow for major lending parties. The total balance of repos in the interbank market has risen, while the leverage ratio has slightly decreased [4][7][8] - The primary market saw a divergence in bidding multiples, with a rise in the bidding multiple for 10-year government bonds, while the multiples for policy bonds decreased. The spread between primary and secondary prices has widened [17][19] Group 2 - The secondary market has shown active trading in ultra-long bonds, with an increase in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and a rise in the average duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds. The total borrowing volume for bonds has decreased, and the proportion of active bonds has also declined [26][30] - Major buyers have increased net purchases of ultra-long bonds, while net purchases of short, medium, and long-term bonds have decreased. Major sellers have increased net sales of medium and long-term bonds, while the selling pressure on short and ultra-long bonds has weakened [26][30][33] - The report highlights that large commercial banks have continued to net buy short-term bonds within 3 years, while maintaining significant net selling pressure on ultra-long bonds of 10 years and above [34][36] Group 3 - In June, the data on wealth management did not show a significant seasonal decline, with a slight increase in wealth management scale during the week of June 22. The total wealth management scale decreased by 204.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in fixed-income products [34][36] - The fund scale increased by 299.9 billion yuan in June, with both equity and bond funds seeing significant increases. However, the issuance of new bond funds saw a slight decline compared to the previous week [36][37]

Group 1 - The recent initial public offerings (IPOs) are primarily from technology companies that have not been affected by tariffs [1] - The trading volume in both primary and secondary markets remains healthy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the journey of a grassroots entrepreneur, Lao Song, who, after facing challenges and refusing external financing, eventually agrees to accept investment to accelerate his company's growth, highlighting the dynamics between local government support and private investment in the hard technology sector. Group 1: Entrepreneurial Journey - In 2005, a state-owned enterprise went bankrupt, leading to Lao Song's unemployment and subsequent forced entrepreneurship at the age of 35 [2] - By 2010, Lao Song's company began to take shape, but he struggled to find government support for expansion, ultimately relocating to a less regulated area [4] - By 2015, after years of hard work without seeking loans or government policies, Lao Song's company became profitable and started attracting interest from investment institutions [5][6] Group 2: Investment Dynamics - In 2020, with the launch of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, local governments established substantial mother funds to support local enterprises, increasing interest from investors in Lao Song's company [6][10] - Despite being recognized as a high-quality enterprise with investment potential, Lao Song remained hesitant to accept financing, leading to concerns from local authorities [9][10] - After a visit from the city mayor, who emphasized the importance of Lao Song's company for local development, Lao Song eventually agreed to accept investment [11][12] Group 3: Financing Announcement - After several months, Lao Song's company officially announced its financing, with investment partners highlighting the alignment of industry vision and the need to address gaps in the supply chain [14] - The city leadership reiterated their long-term support for Lao Song's enterprise, emphasizing the strategic focus on hard technology and the role of the mother fund in facilitating growth [15]