固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 债市延续偏强震荡 ――利率债周报 | | 分析师： 王哲语 | SAC NO： S1150524070001 2026 年 2 月 13 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研 | [Table_Author] | 统计区间：2026 年 2 月 6 日至 2026 年 2 月 12 日 | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | [Table_IndInvest]  王哲语 | 重要事件点评 | | | 究 | | | | | | 022-23839051 | 通胀数据：1 月核心 CPI 环比涨幅扩大至近 6 个月最高，主要源于节假 | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | 日出行需求升温、国际金价上行等；PPI 环比涨幅扩大，主要源于"反 | | | | | 内卷"与新质生产力发展并进。展望来看，春节因素有望带动 月 2 | CPI | | | 周喜 | 同环比涨幅扩大，PPI 环比涨幅或与 1 月接近，同比降幅进一步收窄。 | | | |  | 资金价格：节前资金面平稳 | | | 证 | SAC NO：S1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of interest rate bonds oscillating within a range remains unchanged. In the quarterly dimension, inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the oscillation; in the weekly dimension, it is expected to have narrow - amplitude fluctuations before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the trend of the capital market, and focus on varieties around 3Y and the opportunity for the narrowing of the spread between 30Y - 10Y Treasury bonds [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Price - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the central bank's net investment in the open - market exceeded 90 billion yuan. The MLF operation scale reached 90 billion yuan, with an over - quota renewal of 70 billion yuan. The total net investment of 3M and 6M repurchase with ownership transfer this month was 30 billion yuan. The funds price showed differentiation, with DR001 falling below 1.4%, DR007 rising to 1.59%, and the 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit rate remaining basically flat [9]. 3.2 Primary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, 87 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance amount of 744.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds continued to increase. Since the beginning of the year, the issuance term of local bonds has generally been extended, which may be a long - term feature throughout 2026, aiming to take advantage of the low - interest - rate window period and relieve the repayment pressure in recent years [11]. 3.3 Secondary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the bond market continued the previous strong - biased oscillation trend. In terms of the term structure, the yield of Treasury bonds around 5Y declined the most; the 1Y Treasury bonds were relatively weak, mainly affected by the overall increase in the funds price since the beginning of the year; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds recovered. There were few substantial positive events in the bond market during the statistical period. Three pieces of information on the news were positive: the winning bid rate of MLF in January might decline; the market expected the central bank to launch a new overnight monetary policy tool; the market expected the central bank to significantly increase bond purchases in January [13]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is little fundamental data information at the beginning of the year, mainly focusing on the January PMI data and inflation data. If the January PMI month - on - month data improves again, the upper limit of the interest rate oscillation range needs to be further adjusted upward. - In terms of funds, the central bank has released trillions of funds through repurchase with ownership transfer and MLF. It is expected that the repurchase with ownership transfer in February will continue to be renewed in an over - quota manner, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival will decrease accordingly. The funds price may continue to rise slightly at the beginning of February [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of a 200 billion yuan "patient capital" initiative in Nanjing, which is leading the national primary market and aims to foster high-quality development through a structured industrial fund cluster [2][3][5]. Group 1: Nanjing's Industrial Fund Initiatives - Nanjing's government has introduced 42 policy measures across nine areas to support advanced manufacturing, focusing on building an industrial fund cluster exceeding 200 billion yuan [5]. - The "4+N" industrial fund cluster aims to establish a mother fund for key industries, allowing for direct investments or investments through special purpose vehicles (SPVs), with individual project investments capped at 100 million yuan [5][6]. - As of January, the "4+N" industrial fund cluster has established 52 funds with a total scale exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [7]. Group 2: Jiangsu's Broader Capital Strategy - Jiangsu province is developing a clear and distinctive strategic emerging industry fund cluster, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan for the provincial mother fund and 506 billion yuan for the first batch of 14 specialized industry funds [8]. - The provincial mother fund focuses on early-stage, small-scale, long-term investments in hard technology, allowing for a higher tolerance for losses in angel investments [8]. Group 3: Regional Capital Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the Yangtze River Delta region is at the forefront of the primary market recovery, with a surge in the establishment of industrial funds and increased fundraising activity [11]. - Various mother funds have been launched in the region, including social security funds and central enterprise mother funds, with Jiangsu leading in investment frequency by 2025 [12]. - Zhejiang province is also actively preparing a 100 billion yuan future industry fund and has introduced several large-scale fund clusters to support technological innovation and high-quality development [13]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts in the Yangtze River Delta - The establishment of a 1 trillion yuan national venture capital guidance fund in the Yangtze River Delta signifies a significant collaborative effort among regional state-owned assets from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang [14]. - This fund is expected to enhance resource collaboration across the region, reinforcing the Yangtze River Delta's position as a core driver of China's venture capital industry [14]. Group 5: Conclusion on Market Trends - The article concludes that the warming of the primary market and the influx of capital into the Yangtze River Delta region are indicative of a new development cycle, driven by technological innovation and policy incentives [16].

Group 1 - The article reflects on the author's personal journey over the past three years, highlighting a shift from working in investment institutions to a more independent lifestyle, emphasizing the satisfaction derived from personal freedom and choice [5][10][18] - The author discusses the challenges and limitations faced in the investment industry, particularly the difficulty of achieving financial success and the pressure to conform to societal expectations [9][18] - There is a focus on the importance of maintaining curiosity and a desire for knowledge in the investment field, suggesting that investment is a lifelong endeavor that encompasses various life decisions [24][28] Group 2 - The author mentions the significance of community and networking within the investment space, noting the value of connecting with diverse professionals and sharing insights [12][15][16] - The article emphasizes the need for continuous learning and adaptation, particularly in understanding market trends and investment strategies, especially in the secondary market [28][29] - The author expresses a desire to enhance communication and engagement within their community, aiming to facilitate more discussions and knowledge sharing [23]

Group 1 - The company is facing pressure to deploy funds quickly, as there are concerns about the timely investment of capital raised from limited partners (LPs) [1][2] - There is a discussion about the viability of investing in certain projects, such as perovskite projects, indicating potential challenges in securing future funding rounds [1][2] - The company is exploring co-general partner (co-GP) arrangements due to a lack of trust from government entities regarding their ability to operate independently as a GP [2] Group 2 - There are inquiries about the company's ability to identify and invest in early-stage hard technology projects within specific regions, suggesting a focus on local investment opportunities [3] - The company is under scrutiny regarding its ability to meet return on investment commitments, with discussions about the potential for exceeding return ratios [3] - The company is involved in a pre-IPO project that is expected to go public soon, but there are concerns about the timing of fund cycles and the ability to take on existing shares [3] Group 3 - The company is questioned about the transparency of its investments, particularly regarding the visibility of certain companies in public databases [4] - There is a dialogue about the challenges of justifying investment decisions to local government officials, emphasizing the inherent risks in venture capital [4] - The company is tasked with selecting fund managers for a government-backed fund, highlighting the complexities of investment logic in different regional contexts [5]

Group 1 - The knowledge community has been operational for a year, providing various functions such as original content creation, in-depth analysis of significant investment behaviors, and sharing valuable reports that are hard to access publicly [1][2][4] - The community focuses on the primary market, offering insights into industry-specific reports and analysis, including those from notable companies like TSMC [2] - The community has around 100 members, with a commitment to quality content, including over 200 posts and more than 100,000 words of original content published [6][10] Group 2 - The community guarantees at least two updates per week, with one being an original article of over 3,000 words [4] - Members can ask questions, and the community aims to provide quick feedback, enhancing engagement and interaction [3][5] - The subscription fee is set at 200 yuan per year, with an 80% discount on renewals, and a full refund policy within 72 hours of payment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of protecting private enterprises in a market economy is emphasized, as they are crucial for driving technological innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - Enterprises are the main entities responsible for driving technological innovation, with private enterprises being the most significant [1][2]. - Academic research indicates that countries with better investment protection see higher investments in R&D, greater efficiency in corporate investments, and higher valuations for invested companies [1][2]. - A more tolerant approach towards innovators is necessary to stimulate innovation [1][2]. Group 2: Market Environment - To effectively promote technological innovation, a more inclusive primary market and a less aggressive secondary market are needed, along with a sound legal environment [1][2]. - A combination of these elements, supported by financial tools and methods, is essential for fostering economic development through innovation [1][2].

Group 1 - The primary market is characterized by high entry barriers and significant potential returns, often yielding thousands of times the initial investment, making it essential for capital accumulation [1][3][4] - The semi-primary market and bond market differ fundamentally from the primary market, with the bond market focusing on liquidity to address immediate financial needs and support future growth [1][3][4] - The secondary market is driven by substantial liquidity, where individual investors have limited influence, and success depends on who controls the market dynamics [4][5] Group 2 - Investors and capital managers must engage broadly and continuously improve their skills to navigate various market dynamics effectively [2][5] - Value investing emphasizes specialization and deep engagement in a specific area to create exceptional value [2][5] - The rise of new productive forces, particularly in new materials and technologies, presents significant opportunities for investors in all market segments [2][5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The primary market has seen steady progress with 19 public REITs issued in 2025, a decrease of 5 compared to the same period last year [3] - The secondary market REITs index fell by 0.52% in November, with the total market capitalization of public REITs at 219.885 billion, down by 0.692 billion from the previous month [4] - The industrial park sector experienced the largest decline, with a monthly drop of 2.43%, while the traffic infrastructure sector led with a 0.56% increase [4] Group 2: REITs Performance - The average cash distribution rate for property REITs is 4.65%, while for operating rights REITs, it is 8.21%, indicating a higher yield for the latter [5] - The trading volume for park infrastructure REITs reached 836 million units, leading the monthly transaction scale [5] - The valuation yield for property REITs stands at 4.04%, lower than the 4.28% for operating rights REITs [5] Group 3: Company Performance - Bosideng - Bosideng's revenue for FY2026H1 increased by 1.4% to 8.928 billion, with a net profit growth of 5.3% to 1.189 billion [6] - The main brand's down jacket business saw an 8.3% revenue increase to 6.57 billion, accounting for 73.6% of total revenue [6] - The OEM business faced an 11.7% revenue decline to 2.04 billion due to tariffs and geopolitical factors [6] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - Bosideng optimized its channel structure, reducing the number of stores to 3,140, with a focus on enhancing store profitability and operational efficiency [7] - Online sales for the brand's down jackets grew by 2.4% to 1.38 billion, with strong performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [7] - The company maintained a healthy inventory turnover, with a reduction in inventory turnover days to 178, down by 11 days from the previous year [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 28.43 billion, 31.36 billion, and 34.43 billion for FY2026 to FY2028, with net profits projected at 3.92 billion, 4.39 billion, and 4.89 billion respectively [9] - The closing price on December 4, 2025, was 5.06 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14, 12, and 11 for FY2026 to FY2028 [9] - The company aims to enhance product innovation and channel quality to improve profitability [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent surge in the establishment of large-scale funds in the primary market, particularly focusing on social security and strategic emerging industries [1] Group 1: Social Security Innovation Funds - Two major social security innovation funds have been established, each with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting strategic emerging industries and high-quality development [2][3] - The Jiangsu Social Security Innovation Fund, initiated on October 31, 2023, will focus on advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and new materials [2] - The Zhejiang Social Security Innovation Fund, approved on November 19, 2023, will also target similar sectors, including artificial intelligence and high-end equipment [3] Group 2: Central Enterprise Funds - The Central Enterprise Strategic Emerging Industry Development Fund was launched on October 29, 2023, with an initial fundraising target of 510 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries aligned with central enterprise development strategies [3] Group 3: National-Level Mother Funds - The establishment of the second phase of the National Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund has been approved, aiming to guide more social capital into supporting the growth of innovative SMEs [4] - The first phase of this fund, established in 2020, has already set up 46 sub-funds with a total scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, investing in over 2,000 projects [5] Group 4: Trends in Fund Establishment - The article notes a shift in the establishment of mother funds, with a trend towards smaller, more targeted "fund clusters" rather than single large-scale funds, enhancing efficiency and risk management [7][8] - This approach allows for flexibility in adjusting fund sizes and focuses based on industry needs, promoting a more pragmatic and detailed operational strategy [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of fund establishment in the primary market is expected to see increased collaboration between national teams and local governments, with a focus on clearly defined roles and comprehensive funding strategies [9]