有些老朋友知道，我有一个知识星球，开了一年了。 经过一年的摸索，目前星球有几个功能： 1）写一些不太适合写在公众号的 原创 内容，主要针对行业的一些水下信息。 有些公众号文章不得不写得比较隐晦，我也会对应在星球中做更清晰、更细颗粒度的解释。 2）针对某家机构，或是某家知名企业，或是某项有影响力、有舆论关注度的投融资行为，我写一篇数 千字的原创文章，深度分析的文章。 这类文章比较长，而且可能有些枯燥，放到公众号里反而没太多人看，可以通过星球来找到对这些内容 有兴趣的朋友。 3）我会每天至少打开 2 次星球，快速反馈球友的提问。 如果公众号文章是一个人发表的公开观点，星球就更像闭门会议。 我很喜欢"闭门"这两个字。你认可会议主题和内容，就请进来。人来全了，咱们关门，甚至关手机，坐 下来分享交流。 这 类 文章可以比较充分结合我的行业研究、信息收集和整理的能力，以及我在一级市场的资源。我也 很乐于写这样的分析文章。 3）分享一些我认为有价值的报告，尤其是公开信息很难拿到的，专注于一级市场的报告。 比如台积电出具的针对半导体行业的报告，或是产业链图谱等。同时还会分析一些电子书籍，同样是一 级市场或是金融相关。 4）回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The importance of protecting private enterprises in a market economy is emphasized, as they are crucial for driving technological innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - Enterprises are the main entities responsible for driving technological innovation, with private enterprises being the most significant [1][2]. - Academic research indicates that countries with better investment protection see higher investments in R&D, greater efficiency in corporate investments, and higher valuations for invested companies [1][2]. - A more tolerant approach towards innovators is necessary to stimulate innovation [1][2]. Group 2: Market Environment - To effectively promote technological innovation, a more inclusive primary market and a less aggressive secondary market are needed, along with a sound legal environment [1][2]. - A combination of these elements, supported by financial tools and methods, is essential for fostering economic development through innovation [1][2].

Group 1 - The primary market is characterized by high entry barriers and significant potential returns, often yielding thousands of times the initial investment, making it essential for capital accumulation [1][3][4] - The semi-primary market and bond market differ fundamentally from the primary market, with the bond market focusing on liquidity to address immediate financial needs and support future growth [1][3][4] - The secondary market is driven by substantial liquidity, where individual investors have limited influence, and success depends on who controls the market dynamics [4][5] Group 2 - Investors and capital managers must engage broadly and continuously improve their skills to navigate various market dynamics effectively [2][5] - Value investing emphasizes specialization and deep engagement in a specific area to create exceptional value [2][5] - The rise of new productive forces, particularly in new materials and technologies, presents significant opportunities for investors in all market segments [2][5]

2025 年 12 月 05 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 207 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压--资产配置报告 FY2026H1 营收稳健增长，看好旺季销售表现--波司登/服装家纺(03998/213502) 点评报告（港股美股） 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、一级市场项目进展顺利，产业园区板块承压--资产配置报告 分析师：林加力 S0350524100005 分析师：许潇琦 S0350525080004 联系人：刘子路 S0350125080017 投资要点： 一级市场六单项目状态更新：截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，年内公募 REITs 市场已成功发行 19 单产品，较去年 同期（截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日）减少 5 单，其中 11 月新成立 1 单。根据交易所最新披露信息，近三个月处 于已申报状态的 REITs 产品有 2 单、已受理状态 2 单、交易所已反馈意见 5 单、已通过审核 4 单。本月 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent surge in the establishment of large-scale funds in the primary market, particularly focusing on social security and strategic emerging industries [1] Group 1: Social Security Innovation Funds - Two major social security innovation funds have been established, each with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting strategic emerging industries and high-quality development [2][3] - The Jiangsu Social Security Innovation Fund, initiated on October 31, 2023, will focus on advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and new materials [2] - The Zhejiang Social Security Innovation Fund, approved on November 19, 2023, will also target similar sectors, including artificial intelligence and high-end equipment [3] Group 2: Central Enterprise Funds - The Central Enterprise Strategic Emerging Industry Development Fund was launched on October 29, 2023, with an initial fundraising target of 510 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries aligned with central enterprise development strategies [3] Group 3: National-Level Mother Funds - The establishment of the second phase of the National Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund has been approved, aiming to guide more social capital into supporting the growth of innovative SMEs [4] - The first phase of this fund, established in 2020, has already set up 46 sub-funds with a total scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, investing in over 2,000 projects [5] Group 4: Trends in Fund Establishment - The article notes a shift in the establishment of mother funds, with a trend towards smaller, more targeted "fund clusters" rather than single large-scale funds, enhancing efficiency and risk management [7][8] - This approach allows for flexibility in adjusting fund sizes and focuses based on industry needs, promoting a more pragmatic and detailed operational strategy [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of fund establishment in the primary market is expected to see increased collaboration between national teams and local governments, with a focus on clearly defined roles and comprehensive funding strategies [9]

2 0 2 5行至岁尾，今年的投资人感受如何？ "从数据上来看，一级市场今年数据是有呈现回暖，LP出资、新设基金数量和投资数量同比都 有上升，但 数据背后实则是假回暖，真出清 。其实细究下来，增量的部分基本都是一些头部 机构的基金、大国资的基金，整个市场的活跃程度其实并没有真正的回暖。 "北京某VC机构合 伙人J e ffr e y（化名）告诉母基金研究中心。 募资端打工人 IR在今年同样不容易——"感觉今年，各地新设的政府基金基本都是直投，大家 都不设母基金了。而且，各家母基金出手越来越偏细分垂直的产业规划，能出给市场化子基金 的份额都不多。并且决策周期流程都比较长，年底了，我们新基金还没募齐。从去年募到今年 可能还要继续募到明年…"某VC机构IR告诉母基金研究中心。 今年以来，有不少政府引导基金转向从事直投业务，不再出资子基金，已经不是真正意义上的 "母基金"了。看起来， 今年直投暖了，母基金却冷了 。 母基金的新设情况同样出现下降趋势： 2 0 2 5年上半年，新发起成立的母基金共3 3支，其中政 府引导基金3 1支，市场化母基金2支。新发起母基金总规模共1 9 7 0 . 1 7亿，其中政府引导基金规 ...

Core Insights - The investment landscape is experiencing a revival, with fundraising, investment, and exit activities accelerating simultaneously [1][6][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has seen a significant increase in IPO activity, with total IPO financing reaching HKD 182.9 billion by the end of September, more than doubling compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - The sentiment among international investors towards Chinese assets has shifted from "cannot invest" to "cannot afford not to invest," indicating a fundamental change in perception [2][5] - The "A+H" model has become a cornerstone of the market, with nearly half of the IPO financing in the first nine months coming from this approach [5] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable increase in long-term capital from overseas investors, particularly from Europe, the Middle East, and emerging markets, which are becoming key players in the Hong Kong IPO market [5][7] - The demand for investment in China is being driven by a renewed interest in the country's technological innovation capabilities, as evidenced by the active participation of foreign LPs [7][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is witnessing a resurgence in hiring, with many funds restarting recruitment for key positions that had been frozen for three years, indicating a positive outlook for the investment landscape [9] - The current environment is characterized by a combination of institutional benefits and high-quality assets, suggesting the beginning of a new investment cycle [10]

Core Insights - The trend of companies undergoing multiple rounds of financing without advancing to higher rounds is becoming increasingly common in the Chinese venture capital market, particularly in the A+ and B+ rounds [4][10][12]. Financing Trends - Zero Gravity Aircraft Industry (Hefei) Co., Ltd. recently completed an A++++ round of financing, raising nearly 300 million yuan, marking a total of approximately 700 million yuan raised over three rounds in two months [1]. - In 2025, 571 companies received "+ round" investments totaling about 40.43 billion yuan, with at least 19 companies securing multiple "+ round" investments [8]. - A+ round financing events have significantly increased, with 331 occurrences in the first half of this year, a 35% year-on-year increase, representing 8.84% of total investment events [9]. Industry Characteristics - Companies in high-tech sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, aerospace, and medical devices are predominantly found in the "+ round" financing category, which is characterized by high technical difficulty and long development cycles [10][12]. - The extended financing cycles and the prevalence of "+" rounds are attributed to companies not achieving significant valuation increases due to either insufficient technological advancement or lack of commercial orders [12][14]. Investor Behavior - Investors are becoming more cautious, with varying decision-making processes based on their backgrounds, which can lead to missed financing opportunities [13]. - The performance of the secondary market significantly influences the primary market, with a sluggish secondary market causing investors to reduce their commitments to the primary market [13]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in IPOs has provided a much-needed exit window for VC/PE firms, boosting investor confidence and facilitating smoother transitions from A rounds to B and C rounds [16][17]. - The AI sector is experiencing a valuation shift, with companies that were previously stuck in A+++ rounds now qualifying for B and C rounds due to heightened market interest and recognition of their technological value [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the primary market, highlighting that while there are signs of policy improvement, the reality on the ground remains challenging for many investment institutions, leading to a situation described as "pretending to recover" [4][7][10]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The primary market is experiencing a "twisted recovery," with increased project activity and more frequent meetings among limited partners (LPs), but many institutions are still struggling to regain their footing [4][8]. - Despite regulatory encouragement for innovation and a more favorable IPO environment, the actual conditions for fundraising and project exits remain bleak, with many general partners (GPs) feeling pressured to maintain appearances [8][10]. - The investment landscape is characterized by difficulties in fundraising, investment, and exit strategies, with LPs becoming increasingly cautious and preferring safer investments like bonds over venture capital [13][14][24]. Group 2: Taxation Issues - The article emphasizes that taxation is a significant barrier for the primary market, with examples illustrating how misclassification and tax regulations can lead to substantial financial losses for LPs [18][19][21]. - The inability to offset gains and losses across different funds exacerbates the tax burden, discouraging high-net-worth individuals from investing in venture capital [20][24]. - The current tax system creates a disincentive for long-term investments in technology and innovation, as potential returns are heavily taxed, leading to a reluctance among LPs to commit to high-risk projects [24][26]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is a general sentiment of cautious optimism regarding the potential for a market turnaround, but many industry players remain skeptical about the timing and sustainability of such a recovery [10][11][28]. - The article calls for a more supportive regulatory and tax environment to encourage long-term investment in technology and innovation, suggesting that without such changes, the aspirations for growth may remain unfulfilled [24][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) in China, highlighting a shift in investment strategies among family offices and the challenges faced in the current market environment [4][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Changes - Family offices have reduced their equity allocation from around 10% to approximately 2%, shifting focus towards fixed income and alternative investment products [6][8]. - The perception of the primary market has evolved, with family offices needing to adapt to a new stage of investment that diverges from traditional VC practices [6][7]. - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of returns in the primary market, with a shift towards high-interest debt instruments that may complicate recovery of investments [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between limited partners (LPs) and general partners (GPs) has become more adversarial, with increased scrutiny and accountability leading to a cycle of mutual exhaustion [9][10]. - The primary market is experiencing pressure due to poor economic fundamentals and a lack of liquidity in the secondary market, which affects overall investment performance [10][11]. - The influx of state-owned capital has distorted project valuations, leading to irrational funding of projects that may not warrant investment [10][11]. Group 3: Risk and Return Considerations - The article emphasizes the high survivor bias in the primary market, cautioning against unrealistic expectations of returns and highlighting the difficulty in assessing the true risk of investments [15][18]. - The need for GPs to evolve in their asset management capabilities is underscored, particularly in risk control and exit strategies [14][15]. - Family offices are increasingly looking for liquidity and clear exit paths in their investments, favoring structured products that offer better risk-adjusted returns [17][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of equity allocation remains uncertain, but family offices are not entirely abandoning the space; they are instead focusing on opportunities with better liquidity and defined exit strategies [18][19]. - Alternative investments are being prioritized over equity, with a focus on products that provide superior returns and liquidity [19][23]. - The article concludes that investment decisions are inherently retrospective, and success is often only recognized post-factum, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of investment outcomes [19].