能源消费结构优化
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专题报告:中国天然气国内供需概况
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:39
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's natural gas supply security has been significantly enhanced, with production achieving leap - forward growth in the past decade [7]. - China's natural gas consumption has doubled in the past decade, and the energy consumption structure has been continuously optimized [13]. 3. Summary by Sections China's Natural Gas Supply - **Production Growth**: From 2015 to 2024, China's natural gas production increased from 126.9 billion cubic meters to 246.5 billion cubic meters, with a continuous year - on - year increase of over 10 billion cubic meters for 8 consecutive years. In 2024, the increments of conventional and unconventional natural gas production compared to 2015 were basically the same. China's share of global natural gas production rose from 3.9% in 2015 to 6% in 2024 [2][7]. - **Exploration and New Reserves**: In 2024, China's newly discovered geological reserves of natural gas (including shale gas and coalbed methane) exceeded 1.6 trillion cubic meters. Unconventional natural gas production reached about 109.7 billion cubic meters in 2024, accounting for 44.5% of the total [8]. - **Production Regions**: The main production areas are in the northwest, southwest, and north of China. The Sichuan Basin, Ordos Basin, and Tarim Basin are major on - shore production bases, with outputs exceeding 74 billion, 74 billion, and 36 billion cubic meters respectively in 2024. Offshore production exceeded 25 billion cubic meters. These four regions accounted for 84.7% of the national total. Provinces with annual production over 10 billion cubic meters in 2024 were Sichuan, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Guangdong, together accounting for 82.8% [2][9]. - **Production Enterprises**: "Three Big Oil" companies (CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC) dominated the supply, accounting for 88.3% of the total production in 2024. CNPC produced 158.6 billion cubic meters (64.3% of the national total), Sinopec 39.7 billion cubic meters (16.1%), and CNOOC 19.4 billion cubic meters (7.9%) [10]. China's Natural Gas Demand - **Consumption Growth**: From 2015 to 2024, China's natural gas consumption doubled from 193.2 billion cubic meters to 423.3 billion cubic meters, with a compound growth rate of 8.2%. Its share in primary energy consumption increased by 3 percentage points to 8.8%. In 2024, China's natural gas consumption accounted for 10.5% of the global total, up from 5.6% in 2015 [3][13]. - **Consumption Structure**: In 2024, urban gas, industrial fuel, power generation, and chemical and fertilizer use accounted for 34%, 41%, 18%, and 7% of the total consumption respectively. Industrial fuel and urban gas were the two main consumption sectors [3][14]. - **Consumption Regions**: The consumption pattern is "self - use in production areas + transportation to core markets". The main consumption areas are natural gas - rich regions like Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, and economically developed regions with good infrastructure such as Guangdong, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. In 2024, the top ten provinces in terms of consumption accounted for 63% of the total, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan each consuming over 30 billion cubic meters [3][18]. - **Power Generation**: From 2015 to 2024, China's natural gas power generation increased from 166.9 TWh to 320.7 TWh, with a compound growth rate of 6.7%. As of July 2025, the installed capacity of gas - fired power generation reached 160 million kilowatts. However, its share in the power generation structure was low, with 3% of the power generation and 4% of the installed capacity in 2024, far below the world average of 22% [14][17].