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华润燃气(01193):气量回升接驳承压,分红及回购保障长期投资价值
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-31 08:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Gas (01193) [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 97.73 billion for 2025, a decrease of 4.81% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.547 billion, down 13.23% [7] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.65 per share, maintaining an annual dividend of HKD 0.95, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.97% based on the closing price on March 30 [7] - Natural gas sales volume for 2025 is projected to be 401.8 billion cubic meters, with a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, and a gross margin of HKD 0.54 per cubic meter [7] - The company is actively enhancing its gas sourcing capabilities, with a significant increase in total gas volume to 6.1 billion cubic meters, up 52.2% year-on-year [7] - The company’s capital expenditure is expected to decrease by 16.9%, while free cash flow is projected to increase by 12.3% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: HKD 102.676 billion (2024), HKD 97.733 billion (2025), HKD 100.012 billion (2026E), HKD 102.589 billion (2027E), and HKD 105.066 billion (2028E) [6][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 4.088 billion (2024), HKD 3.547 billion (2025), HKD 4.315 billion (2026E), HKD 4.757 billion (2027E), and HKD 5.350 billion (2028E) [6][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be HKD 1.80 (2024), HKD 1.55 (2025), HKD 1.88 (2026E), HKD 2.08 (2027E), and HKD 2.34 (2028E) [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2026 to 2028 are estimated at 10.1, 9.2, and 8.2 respectively [7]