然而，这种繁荣背后潜藏着巨大的风险。美国的各大工厂已经生产过剩，生产能力远超民众的消费需求，然而生产线仍在扩张。为了缓解这一矛盾，美国采 取了分期付款、优惠贷款等政策，并借助海外市场的需求来消化过剩产能。尽管如此，一旦金融市场崩溃，美国经济就会陷入危机。胡佛在这种虚假的繁荣 中上台时，并未意识到经济的潜在问题，且还对经济学家们的警告视而不见，继续推行自由放任的政策，声称美国的经济体系非常健全，足以应对任何危 机。他曾承诺要让每个美国家庭都能享受丰裕的生活，然而，最终很多美国人连基本的房子都没能保住。 1929年10月24日，股票市场首次崩溃，出现了前所未有的大规模抛售浪潮，这一天被称为黑色星期四。这一危机很快蔓延至金融领域，民众争相前往银行提 取现金，造成了大量银行倒闭，经济危机迅速蔓延到各行各业。由于美国的资本遍布全球，经济危机还开始波及到其他国家，全球范围内的经济状况急剧恶 化。 特朗普的第二任期与第一任期有许多相似之处，其中最为显著的一点便是他持续加高关税、设置贸易壁垒，试图通过这些手段来治疗美国经济，振兴国家经 济。然而，特朗普的做法看似新颖独特，实际上这一策略早在95年前就曾被另一位美国总统使用过。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of the United States' recent tariff policies on global trade partners, particularly Australia, highlighting the resulting economic uncertainty and damage to both the global economy and the U.S. itself [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Australia - Australia's stock market fell over 6% and the Australian dollar reached a five-year low following the U.S. announcement of a 10% minimum benchmark tariff [1]. - Although the U.S. is Australia's fourth-largest export market, it only accounts for about 6% of Australia's total export value in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, indicating that the direct impact is relatively small [2]. - The indirect effects of U.S. tariffs on Asian economies significantly harm Australia, leading to a depreciation of the Australian dollar and exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: Economic Consequences - The Australian Treasury and economists predict that U.S. tariffs will lead to an increase in inflation by 0.2, 0.1, and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, further straining household budgets [2]. - The ongoing trade war and financial market volatility are expected to weaken consumer and business confidence, negatively affecting consumption and investment in Australia [3]. - The direct and indirect impacts of U.S. tariffs could reduce Australia's economic output by 0.4%, with long-term GDP impacts estimated at around 0.7% if U.S. policies remain unchanged [3]. Group 3: Broader Implications for the U.S. - The U.S. is also suffering from its own tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty and financial losses for American billionaires and a substantial decrease in stock market value [3][4]. - The aggressive tariff policies have raised concerns about a potential recession in the U.S., with Morgan Stanley increasing the probability of recession to 60% [4]. - The current U.S. tariff strategy undermines its international economic standing and reputation, prompting trade partners to reconsider their dealings with the U.S. [4].