2025年，美国政府竭力推进保守主义的经济政策和民族主义色彩浓厚的贸易保护主义政策。对内， 落实"小政府"治理理念，笃信涓滴经济学，采取大规模减税、精简政府机构、削减联邦机构开支、矫正 民主党推行的社会保障政策等措施。对外，无视现有国际贸易规则，力图建构更有利于美国的国际经贸 和安全新格局。4月2日，美国政府宣布对各国征收所谓"对等关税"，导致全球贸易和投资市场波动，对 全球经贸体系和国际经济秩序造成重大冲击，同时也对其自身经济产生深远影响。 2025年，美国经济呈现较为复杂的图景，经济增速前低后高、通胀总体回落、就业降温、政策转向 宽松成为突出特点。 受消费者和企业支出强韧等因素推动，2025年前三季度，美国国内生产总值(GDP)增速分别 为-0.5%、3.8%和4.3%，呈前低后高趋势。今年一季度，美国GDP下滑主要受进口增长、居民消费支出 回落，以及政府支出下降的拖累。后续增速加快主要由人工智能(AI)投资和消费驱动，但后劲不足，可 持续性存疑。个人消费支出占GDP的比例大约为70%，前三季度同比增长2.9%，但真实需求指标偏弱， 消费信心边际下滑，储蓄率走低，抑制后续支出。 2026年，美国通胀预计将 ...

2025年，美国政府竭力推进保守主义的经济政策和民族主义色彩浓厚的贸易保护主义政策。对内，落 实"小政府"治理理念，笃信涓滴经济学，采取大规模减税、精简政府机构、削减联邦机构开支、矫正民 主党推行的社会保障政策等措施。对外，无视现有国际贸易规则，力图建构更有利于美国的国际经贸和 安全新格局。4月2日，美国政府宣布对各国征收所谓"对等关税"，导致全球贸易和投资市场波动，对全 球经贸体系和国际经济秩序造成重大冲击，同时也对其自身经济产生深远影响。 2025年，美国经济呈现较为复杂的图景，经济增速前低后高、通胀总体回落、就业降温、政策转向宽松 成为突出特点。 美国"大而美"法案的减税举措将增加更多投资，至少短期内对刺激经济增长会产生一定的作用。AI投资 热潮方兴未艾，将成为拉动美国经济增长的重要动力。不过，AI投资能否转化为强劲的生产力，对美 国经济产生拉动作用，将取决于投资能否从科技巨头向全行业渗透。目前，仅约15%的制造业企业、 10%的服务业企业将AI应用于生产流程。反之，如果AI应用局限于科技领域，其对经济的边际拉动将逐 步减弱。消费将是美国经济增长的重要引擎，而消费能否延续增长则取决于就业与收入的改善。 ...

大家好，今天老张和大家聊个大事——美联储要换掌门人了，热门人选是特朗普的自己人，背后的原因和可能带来的风险，我们慢慢来分析。 最近关于美联储换掌门人的话题，真的是沸沸扬扬，比直播间抢福利还要热闹。圈内都在说，下任主席基本已经锁定了白宫经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特， 虽然还没正式宣布，但风头已经很明显，基本上是藏不住的秘密。 在2025年12月2日的内阁会议上，特朗普直接和财政部长贝森特摊牌，确认贝森特不打算接下美联储这个烂摊子。看起来像是在撇清关系，但实际上，这是 美联储换帅大戏的又一次公开预热。贝森特虽然不打算当主角，但他掌握着选角权，新主席的人选面试工作由他主导，已经准备了好几个月。 到了2025年9月，贝森特又在《华尔街日报》上发表了一篇简化版的评论，喊出了改革臃肿美联储的口号，甚至表示要把银行监管的职责从美联储手中剥 离。他更直接地把美国日益严重的贫富差距归咎于美联储的市场干预，认为央行印钱救市反而让大企业趁机挤垮了小公司。 凯文·哈塞特可不是外人，他可是特朗普的自己人——一直喊着要降息，并且支持给富人减税，还是特朗普经济政策的坚定支持者。在白宫里，他总能精准 地把握特朗普的心思。如果他真的上任，那么美 ...

文：奇史怪谈 编辑：奇史怪谈 它说这些年美联储用的量化宽松等非常规政策，没怎么刺激到经济，反而让资源分配乱了套，还动摇了 自己的独立性。 2025年12月2日，特朗普内阁会议刚开场就抛出个大消息。 他当着镜头跟财政部长贝森特确认，贝森特不会去争美联储新主席的位置。 这事看着简单，实则藏着一场围绕美国经济走向的暗战。 论文成"准入证"？有点绝 贝森特虽然不参选，但新任美联储主席的面试工作全由他主持。 更让人意外的是，面试标准居然是他自己2025年春季发的一篇论文。 这操作我还是头回见，用自己的学术观点当遴选门槛，相当于给未来的美联储主席定了调子。 这篇发表在《国际经济》上的论文，核心就是吐槽美联储管得太宽。 可就因为降息的事，两人闹得不可开交。 9月的时候，贝森特又在《华尔街日报》发了简化版评论，跟特朗普"改革美联储"的口号凑到了一起。 本来想美联储这种金融核心机构，遴选主席该看资历和能力，后来发现还是躲不开政治诉求。 贝森特这篇论文，就是给特朗普的经济政策打铺垫。 他主张美联储放弃银行监管职能，专心管通胀、就业和利率，这正好契合特朗普想推的"大漂亮法案"， 也就是给富人减税那套。 换帅拉锯战，背后有门道 现任 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the political maneuvering surrounding the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin playing a key role in selecting a new candidate [1][4] - President Trump has openly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough, indicating a desire to replace him, but opposition from Wall Street has delayed this process [4][6] - Mnuchin has been actively seeking candidates for the Fed chair position, with a focus on those who align with his views on monetary policy, particularly a paper he authored criticizing the Fed's quantitative easing measures [6][8] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has emerged as a leading candidate for the Fed chair position, supported by Trump's advisors [8][9] - Hassett has publicly stated that now is a good time for the Fed to consider cautious interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's calls for lower rates [9][10] - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Hassett's appointment, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in December, reaching 71% according to CME data [13] Group 3 - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve are currently contentious, with a split among members regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, reflecting broader political pressures from the White House [17][19] - There are currently six voting members in favor of a rate cut, indicating a need for one more vote to achieve a majority, complicating the upcoming policy meeting [19] - The article suggests that the Trump administration's push for a leaner Fed is part of a broader strategy to implement tax cuts for the wealthy, reminiscent of past economic policies that have exacerbated income inequality [21]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Narrative - The U.S. stock market showed resilience despite signs of weakness in the labor market, with the S&P 500 recovering losses and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new all-time high [4][3] - Three hypotheses were proposed to explain this resilience: new AI stimuli, healthy capital flows despite reduced speculative demand, and the notion that stock markets do not directly reflect the economy [5][6][7] Group 2: Market Framework - The overall market sentiment remains positive, but increased risk asset holdings may complicate future trading [8] - AI spending has exceeded expectations, while employment growth has significantly declined since Q1, leading to a volatile market environment [8] - Short-term risk balance is uncertain, with expectations of consolidation in August and a challenging technical situation in September, but a bullish trend is anticipated for the second half of 2025 [8] Group 3: Key Points and Data Analysis - The U.S. labor market's health is under scrutiny, with mixed initial jobless claims and a disappointing ISM services index, leading to a GDP tracking expectation of 1.2% for Q3 [12] - Systematic trading institutions have largely completed their buying of global index futures, and discretionary investors have increased long positions, while retail investor demand has weakened [12] - The impact of tariffs is seen as destructive but not catastrophic, with the market no longer viewing it as a significant variable [13] Group 4: U.S. Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech companies reported strong Q2 earnings, with growth acceleration across various sectors, including cloud computing and AI [14] - The Nasdaq 100 index's P/E ratio is approaching historical highs, suggesting a need for consolidation, but potential earnings growth justifies a positive outlook on tech valuations [14] - Concerns about AI's impact on employment are noted, with a significant rise in unemployment rates among tech workers aged 20-30 since early 2024 [14] Group 5: Global Market Insights - The Japanese stock market has shown resilience, with the Nikkei index reaching new highs, while India's market faces challenges despite strong fundamentals [15] - Market depth and risk transfer ease are deteriorating, indicating a sensitive trading environment with increased price volatility [15] Group 6: Credit Market Dynamics - The surge in new corporate bond issuances suggests ample credit supply in the U.S. financial system, supported by ongoing demand and rising coupon rates [16] - A favorable policy environment for large corporations is noted, with pressures on consumers due to rising prices and stagnant real wage growth [16] Group 7: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes going long on U.S. stocks (particularly tech), value storage assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin), shorting the dollar, and steepening yield curve trades [16] - This strategy is viewed as a preferred defensive measure for 2025, despite potential short-term underperformance in certain components [16]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index recovered all its losses from the previous week, while the Nasdaq 100 index reached a new all-time high, indicating resilience in the market despite initial concerns over labor market weakness [5][10]. - The market narrative has shifted, with the non-farm payroll report not significantly altering risk appetite, suggesting that broader capital flows remain healthy [3][7]. Investment Strategy - The core investment strategy remains focused on going long on U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector, while also investing in value storage assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and moderately shorting the dollar [17]. - The recommendation includes a steepening yield curve trade globally, which is seen as a preferred defensive strategy for 2025 [17]. Economic Indicators - Recent labor market data shows a decline in job growth, with the tracking estimate for Q3 GDP at 1.2%, reflecting concerns over economic slowdown [13]. - Despite these concerns, the market seems to have absorbed about a 1% growth slowdown, with expectations that localized worries will gradually dissipate if the economy returns to trend growth [13]. Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly large-cap tech stocks, has shown strong performance in Q2 earnings, with significant growth across various areas such as cloud computing and advertising [14]. - The Nasdaq 100 index's price-to-earnings ratio is approaching historical highs, indicating potential for a correction or consolidation period [15]. Global Market Insights - Japan's Nikkei index recently reached a new high, reflecting positive shareholder reforms and market sentiment [16]. - In India, despite a decade of strong asset performance, the market faces challenges due to capital accumulation and declining indices, suggesting a potential for continued pressure [16]. Credit Market Dynamics - The surge in new high-yield bond issuances indicates a robust credit supply in the U.S. financial system, with over $35 billion in high-yield bonds traded in July [17]. - The current environment is favorable for large corporations due to supportive policies, while consumer pressures remain high due to rising prices and stagnant real wages [17].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant increase in U.S. national debt, which rose from $27.8 trillion to $36.2 trillion during Biden's presidency, highlighting a $10 trillion increase over four years [4][6][9] - The annual fiscal deficit under the Biden administration is approximately $2 trillion, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio consistently exceeding the average of the past 50 years [6][9] - The total debt of American citizens increased from $14.56 trillion to $18.04 trillion during Biden's term, marking one of the largest debt growths in U.S. history [6][9] Group 2 - Biden's administration implemented several reforms aimed at increasing fiscal revenue, including raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and enhancing social welfare programs [11][13] - The article compares Biden's approach to that of former President Clinton, who successfully increased government revenue through tax reforms and social investments [11][13] - Trump's first term saw significant tax cuts, reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and the highest personal income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%, leading to a decrease in government revenue [17][20] Group 3 - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was introduced to address the national debt and fiscal challenges, proposing to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [33][36] - The act includes substantial tax cuts, particularly for small businesses and the manufacturing sector, while also eliminating certain tax credits for the renewable energy industry [37][40] - The act is expected to reduce government revenue by approximately $4.46 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [43][45] Group 4 - The article outlines the potential negative impacts of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" on vulnerable populations, including cuts to healthcare and food assistance programs, affecting millions of Americans [49][51] - It highlights the increased financial burden on education, with reduced federal support for higher education and increased tax rates on university endowments [53][54] - The act's approach is characterized as benefiting the elite while imposing hardships on lower-income groups, leading to accusations of wealth redistribution from the poor to the rich [56][58]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, a significant pillar of Trump's economic policy during his second term, aims to fulfill his election promises regarding economic development and social welfare, with substantial implications for both the U.S. and other countries [1][2]. Group 1: Tax and Spending Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to reduce U.S. federal tax revenue by approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade (2025-2034) due to the extension or permanent establishment of several provisions from the previous "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" [2][3]. - The Act allows full tax deductions for research and development expenses and capital investments made in the U.S., reflecting a "trickle-down economics" approach aimed at economic recovery and job creation [2][3]. - The projected increase in U.S. national debt is estimated to be around $4.1 trillion to $5.5 trillion over the next decade, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to reach 127% by 2034 [3][9]. Group 2: International Tax Policy Changes - The Act continues and expands upon the previous tax reforms, tightening foreign tax credit rules and increasing the limit on foreign tax credits under the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) provisions from 80% to 90% [4][6]. - The Act retains provisions for "retaliatory taxes" against countries imposing unfair taxes on U.S. companies, reflecting a strong stance on international tax sovereignty [5][6]. - The revisions to the Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT) rules indicate a more aggressive approach to taxing foreign entities, with significant implications for international tax relations [6][7]. Group 3: Domestic Spending and Policy Shifts - The Act significantly cuts spending on healthcare and social security by approximately $1.2 trillion while increasing defense spending, indicating a prioritization of military and border security initiatives [9][10]. - The termination of clean energy tax credits marks a shift away from the previous administration's green policies, emphasizing traditional fossil fuel production and usage [8][9]. - The Act's overall approach to tax policy is seen as a manifestation of "tax power," necessitating vigilance from other nations regarding potential impacts on their own tax systems [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of the United States' recent tariff policies on global trade partners, particularly Australia, highlighting the resulting economic uncertainty and damage to both the global economy and the U.S. itself [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Australia - Australia's stock market fell over 6% and the Australian dollar reached a five-year low following the U.S. announcement of a 10% minimum benchmark tariff [1]. - Although the U.S. is Australia's fourth-largest export market, it only accounts for about 6% of Australia's total export value in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, indicating that the direct impact is relatively small [2]. - The indirect effects of U.S. tariffs on Asian economies significantly harm Australia, leading to a depreciation of the Australian dollar and exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: Economic Consequences - The Australian Treasury and economists predict that U.S. tariffs will lead to an increase in inflation by 0.2, 0.1, and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, further straining household budgets [2]. - The ongoing trade war and financial market volatility are expected to weaken consumer and business confidence, negatively affecting consumption and investment in Australia [3]. - The direct and indirect impacts of U.S. tariffs could reduce Australia's economic output by 0.4%, with long-term GDP impacts estimated at around 0.7% if U.S. policies remain unchanged [3]. Group 3: Broader Implications for the U.S. - The U.S. is also suffering from its own tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty and financial losses for American billionaires and a substantial decrease in stock market value [3][4]. - The aggressive tariff policies have raised concerns about a potential recession in the U.S., with Morgan Stanley increasing the probability of recession to 60% [4]. - The current U.S. tariff strategy undermines its international economic standing and reputation, prompting trade partners to reconsider their dealings with the U.S. [4].