编者按：高盛全球投资研究部宏观分析师最新表示，尽管市场出现各种波动，但这几点仍然成立：做多美国股票（偏向 科技股）；做多价值储存资产（黄金 / 白银 / 比特币）； 做空美元（规模适中）； 收益率曲线陡峭化交易（全球适 用）。 一、美股市场叙事 上周一走进办公室时，我原以为市场的主导话题会是美国劳动力市场新出现的疲软迹象。 但到周末时，情况已很明显，市场并未受到明显影响，非农就业报告也没有改变风险偏好。 我并不是说市场走势平稳，实际上，这更像是一场拉锯战，每天都有各自的故事 —— 但数据说明了一切。 也就是说：标普 500 指数收复了上周的全部失地，纳斯达克 100 指数再创历史新高。 事后看来，对于这种韧性，我提出三个假设： i. 本周（指截至8月10日这周，下同）又有新的人工智能刺激因素（例如，Palantir 全程走高，再涨 21%）。 ii. 尽管投机性需求在减弱，但更广泛的资本流动仍然健康…… 实际经济和企业的买盘活动都很活跃。 iii. 本周再次提醒我们一个永恒的真理：经济周期固然重要，但股市并非经济本身。 二、市场框架 从技术面来看，整体仍呈积极态势，但在交易界大幅增持风险资产之后，接下来的操作 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周初，当美国劳动力数据初显疲软时，许多人以为这将成为美股市场情绪的转折点。然而，短短 几天后，标普500指数不仅收复失地，纳斯达克100指数更是悄然创下历史新高。高盛全球投资研究部宏观分析师最新表 示，尽管市场出现各种波动，但核心策略依然有效：做多美国股票（侧重科技股）、做多价值储存资产（黄金/白银/比 特币）、适度做空美元，以及全球范围内的收益率曲线陡峭化交易。 一、美股市场叙事 上周一走进办公室时，我原以为市场的主导话题会是美国劳动力市场新出现的疲软迹象。 但到周末时，情况已很明显，市场并未受到明显影响，非农就业报告也没有改变风险偏好。 我并不是说市场走势平稳，实际上，这更像是一场拉锯战，每天都有各自的故事 —— 但数据说明了一切。 也就是说：标普 500 指数收复了上周的全部失地，纳斯达克 100 指数再创历史新高。 事后看来，对于这种韧性，我提出三个假设： i. 本周（指截至8月10日这周，下同）又有新的人工智能刺激因素（例如，Palantir 全程走高，再涨 21%）。 ii. 尽管投机性需求在减弱，但更广泛的资本流动仍然健康…… 实际经济和企业的买盘活动都很活跃。 iii. ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant increase in U.S. national debt, which rose from $27.8 trillion to $36.2 trillion during Biden's presidency, highlighting a $10 trillion increase over four years [4][6][9] - The annual fiscal deficit under the Biden administration is approximately $2 trillion, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio consistently exceeding the average of the past 50 years [6][9] - The total debt of American citizens increased from $14.56 trillion to $18.04 trillion during Biden's term, marking one of the largest debt growths in U.S. history [6][9] Group 2 - Biden's administration implemented several reforms aimed at increasing fiscal revenue, including raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and enhancing social welfare programs [11][13] - The article compares Biden's approach to that of former President Clinton, who successfully increased government revenue through tax reforms and social investments [11][13] - Trump's first term saw significant tax cuts, reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and the highest personal income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%, leading to a decrease in government revenue [17][20] Group 3 - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was introduced to address the national debt and fiscal challenges, proposing to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [33][36] - The act includes substantial tax cuts, particularly for small businesses and the manufacturing sector, while also eliminating certain tax credits for the renewable energy industry [37][40] - The act is expected to reduce government revenue by approximately $4.46 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [43][45] Group 4 - The article outlines the potential negative impacts of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" on vulnerable populations, including cuts to healthcare and food assistance programs, affecting millions of Americans [49][51] - It highlights the increased financial burden on education, with reduced federal support for higher education and increased tax rates on university endowments [53][54] - The act's approach is characterized as benefiting the elite while imposing hardships on lower-income groups, leading to accusations of wealth redistribution from the poor to the rich [56][58]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, a significant pillar of Trump's economic policy during his second term, aims to fulfill his election promises regarding economic development and social welfare, with substantial implications for both the U.S. and other countries [1][2]. Group 1: Tax and Spending Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to reduce U.S. federal tax revenue by approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade (2025-2034) due to the extension or permanent establishment of several provisions from the previous "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" [2][3]. - The Act allows full tax deductions for research and development expenses and capital investments made in the U.S., reflecting a "trickle-down economics" approach aimed at economic recovery and job creation [2][3]. - The projected increase in U.S. national debt is estimated to be around $4.1 trillion to $5.5 trillion over the next decade, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to reach 127% by 2034 [3][9]. Group 2: International Tax Policy Changes - The Act continues and expands upon the previous tax reforms, tightening foreign tax credit rules and increasing the limit on foreign tax credits under the Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income (GILTI) provisions from 80% to 90% [4][6]. - The Act retains provisions for "retaliatory taxes" against countries imposing unfair taxes on U.S. companies, reflecting a strong stance on international tax sovereignty [5][6]. - The revisions to the Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT) rules indicate a more aggressive approach to taxing foreign entities, with significant implications for international tax relations [6][7]. Group 3: Domestic Spending and Policy Shifts - The Act significantly cuts spending on healthcare and social security by approximately $1.2 trillion while increasing defense spending, indicating a prioritization of military and border security initiatives [9][10]. - The termination of clean energy tax credits marks a shift away from the previous administration's green policies, emphasizing traditional fossil fuel production and usage [8][9]. - The Act's overall approach to tax policy is seen as a manifestation of "tax power," necessitating vigilance from other nations regarding potential impacts on their own tax systems [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of the United States' recent tariff policies on global trade partners, particularly Australia, highlighting the resulting economic uncertainty and damage to both the global economy and the U.S. itself [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Australia - Australia's stock market fell over 6% and the Australian dollar reached a five-year low following the U.S. announcement of a 10% minimum benchmark tariff [1]. - Although the U.S. is Australia's fourth-largest export market, it only accounts for about 6% of Australia's total export value in the 2023-2024 fiscal year, indicating that the direct impact is relatively small [2]. - The indirect effects of U.S. tariffs on Asian economies significantly harm Australia, leading to a depreciation of the Australian dollar and exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: Economic Consequences - The Australian Treasury and economists predict that U.S. tariffs will lead to an increase in inflation by 0.2, 0.1, and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, further straining household budgets [2]. - The ongoing trade war and financial market volatility are expected to weaken consumer and business confidence, negatively affecting consumption and investment in Australia [3]. - The direct and indirect impacts of U.S. tariffs could reduce Australia's economic output by 0.4%, with long-term GDP impacts estimated at around 0.7% if U.S. policies remain unchanged [3]. Group 3: Broader Implications for the U.S. - The U.S. is also suffering from its own tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty and financial losses for American billionaires and a substantial decrease in stock market value [3][4]. - The aggressive tariff policies have raised concerns about a potential recession in the U.S., with Morgan Stanley increasing the probability of recession to 60% [4]. - The current U.S. tariff strategy undermines its international economic standing and reputation, prompting trade partners to reconsider their dealings with the U.S. [4].