Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - The report expresses optimism about the company's ability to sustain profitability [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to be 174.224 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 196.756 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - The company is expected to recover from a loss of 1.696 billion yuan in 2024 to a net profit of 10.13 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to improve from -0.09 yuan in 2024 to 0.56 yuan in 2027 [2] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from -72 in 2024 to 12 by 2027, indicating improved valuation metrics as profitability increases [2] Operational Metrics Summary - **Capacity and Load Factor**: - The company achieved an Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) growth of 5.7% in Q3 2025, with a load factor of 85.9%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - **Revenue per Passenger Kilometer (RPK)**: - RPK increased by 6.2% in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand for air travel [6] - **Cost Management**: - Operating costs for Q3 2025 were reported at 42.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with a notable decrease in fuel costs [6] Investment Recommendations - **Profitability Adjustments**: - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 9.5 billion yuan, down from an earlier estimate of 40 billion yuan, while maintaining projections for 2026 and 2027 at 71 billion yuan and 101 billion yuan respectively [6] - **Target Price**: - The target price is set at 7.84 yuan, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of 6.70 yuan [2][6]