关 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com (1) 花生市场回顾 2 现货市场,花生价格偏弱。截至至 11月20日全国通货米均价 3.99元/斤,周环比涨 0.03元/斤, 涨幅 0.76%。 本周河南、山东等部分产区农忙仍在进行,花生上货量缓慢增加,好货与孬货品质差 异较 大,东北部分区域基层交售较快、部分仍有过半未售。预计供应压力将逐渐释放。商品米总体需求较为一 般,东北好货价格走高后批发市场到货降低,油厂开机率小幅提高,花生稻品质偏差,工厂为控制成本持 压价收购,整体到货量一般。 期货市场,11月21日当周,花生期货下跌。花生主力合约(PK2601)最高价 7988元/吨,最低 7760 元/吨,收盘价 7794 元/吨（前一周收盘 7884 元/吨）。 0 二五年 2025 年 11月 23 日 (2) 花生市场展望 系北河南产区分化、油商提前分离的格局,核心在河南产区上市供应滞后,东北产区基层农户及商贩 持货待涨心理普遍,筛选厂及市场维持低刚需流转库存的阶段性矛盾。河南产区农忙尚未完全结束，入户 后卖货不积极,有效供应量依然有限,东北产区平稳僵持一周左右,油厂落价信 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot market is in a weak and stable oscillation pattern with weak demand, and prices are expected to remain in this state. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness [1][2] - In the second half of August and early September, peanut supply will gradually increase, and the supply - demand relationship will be in a weak balance. The prices of new and old peanuts will restrict each other, and the procurement of the domestic market will be cautious. Pay attention to the weather in Henan [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Peanut Market Review - Spot market: As of August 14, 2025, the national average price of general peanuts was 8400 yuan/ton, a 1.18% decline from the previous week. The market was weak and stable, and demand was weak [1] - Futures market: In the week of August 15, the peanut futures declined. The highest price of the main contract (PK2511) was 8020 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7818 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7822 yuan/ton (previous week's closing was 7952 yuan/ton) [1] Peanut Market Outlook - Spot market: From mid - to late August, spring peanuts in southern and northern Henan will be listed one after another, and garlic and wheat - stubble peanuts will enter the listing period in early September. The supply will gradually increase, and the supply - demand relationship will show a weak balance. The prices of new and old peanuts will restrict each other, and the procurement of the domestic market will be cautious. Pay attention to the weather in Henan [2] - Futures market: The pattern is near - term strength and far - term weakness. The de - stocking of cold - storage peanuts by middlemen is slow, and as the new - season peanuts are approaching the listing time, the willingness to sell is increasing. The driving force for the spot price to rise is weak [2] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts is weakening, while the basis of Sudan refined peanuts is strengthening [6] - Spread: The 11 - 1 spread is weakening (data update stopped), and the 10 - 11 spread is presented [7] Price Data - The raw material procurement of several peanut varieties in different regions has basically ended, and there is no comparable price [10] - The arrival volume of 6 oil - using peanut markets was about 0.52 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.02% and a year - on - year decline of 8.59%. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.2 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.35% and a year - on - year decline of 48.48%. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 0.72 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.11% and a year - on - year decline of 24.53% [13] Supply - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 74.29% and a year - on - year decline of 95% [24] Oil Mill Conditions - The mainstream quotation of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,200 yuan/ton, with stable quotations but bargaining space in actual transactions. The terminal consumption market was weak [24] - The mainstream quotation of peanut meal was 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton, with stable quotations but bargaining space in actual transactions. The terminal breeding demand was limited, and the overall transaction was light [24] - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was - 72.8 yuan/ton, a 33.4 - yuan increase from last week [24] - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 10.06%, a 0.68% increase from last week and a 3.83% increase from the same period last year [24] - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.78 million tons, a 7.2% increase from last week and a 61.48% increase from last year [24]