花生需求偏弱，价格承压 大豆观点 油料日报 | 2025-08-26 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3992.00元/吨，较前日变化+7.00元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+268，较前日变化-7，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场今日大豆价格维持稳定，部分贸易商销售国储库豆源，价格2.1-2.12元/斤，走货一般。随 着新豆上市脚步临近，市场多预期丰产，叠加国储竞拍持续，预计新豆价格或将压制陈豆。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国 标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.13元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.13元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较 昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩 江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，粮贸企业手中库存不多，等待新豆大量上 ...

麻章特色好物亮 相广州博览会， 白云・麻章协作 助推"湛品入 湾"_南方+_南方 plus 8月22日，第33 届广州博览会在 广州隆重开幕， 湛江市麻章区携 14家本土企业、 三大重点产业园 区亮相，通 过"产品展示+园 区推介"，全方 位展现麻章的产 业实力与特色魅 力。此次参展， 白云区派驻麻章 区对口帮扶协作 白云・麻章展区 展空间搭建桥 梁。 多维展示 麻章"产业+产 品"组团亮相 白云・麻章展区 精心围绕"产业 园区"与"特色优 品"两大核心展 示，既亮出园区 发展"硬实力" ， 也展现本土产 品"软魅力"，让 大湾区客商全方 位读懂麻章。 工作组全程协调 推动，是两地深 化对口协作、实 现"双向赋能"的 又一重要实践， 为麻章对接大湾 区资源、拓展发 展区重点推介西 城片区、麻章经 济开发区、森工 产业园区三大重 点片区及工业园 区，现场通过展 板、宣传册及专 人讲解，详细介 绍各园区的规划 定位、资源优势 与产业方向： 西城片区位于麻 章区麻章镇，是 湛江市四大重点 综合开发片区之 一，总占地面积 52.32平方公 里，储备土地约 1800亩。片区锚 定"西部陆海新 通道创新发展示 范区"核心 ...

注：蔬菜大类价格为30种蔬菜的加权平均价格。 | 品种 | 零售价格 | 环比 | 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/公斤、升） | （%） | （%） | | | 粮食 | | | | | | 大米 | 6.54 | 0.0 | -0.8 | | | 面粉 | 6.15 | -0.2 | -2.8 | | | 食用油 | | | | | | 豆油 | 12.87 | 0.2 | -1.8 | | | 花生油 | 28.49 | -0.2 | -1.6 | | | 菜籽油 | 16.76 | 0.1 | -2.7 | | | 调和油 | 15.60 | 0.0 | -2.2 | | | 猪肉 | | | | | | 后腿肉 | 27.71 | -0.5 | -14.5 | | | 鸡肉 | | | | | | 白条鸡 | 24.67 | 0.3 | -2.7 | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | | | 鲜鸡蛋 | 10.03 | 0.0 | -15.0 | | | 水产品 | | | | | | 其中：鲤鱼 | 21.97 | -0.3 | -1.1 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated August 21, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Products R & D Report [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the given content Group 3: Core Views - The peanut price is expected to be relatively weak in the short - term due to low supply and weak downstream demand. 10 - peanut will have a narrow - range bottom - shock. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then take short positions. For the month - spread, it is advised to wait and see, and hold the sold pk510 - C - 8400 option [9][10][12] Group 4: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 7888 with a decrease of 6 (-0.08%), trading volume of 1 (-99.17%), and an open interest of 344 (-0.29%); PK510 closed at 7974 with a decrease of 30 (-0.38%), trading volume of 16,202 (-12.26%), and an open interest of 64,180 (-4.44%); PK601 closed at 7890 with an increase of 8 (0.10%), trading volume of 6,011 (4.98%), and an open interest of 27,307 (7.16%) [2] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang and Shandong Jining and Linyi were 9200, 8400, and 8400 respectively. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3350, Rizhao soybean meal was 3020, peanut oil was 15000, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8480. The basis of Henan Nanyang was 1226, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 426. The difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 6520. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8250 [2] - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 2 with an increase of 14; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 86 with an increase of 24; PK10 - PK01 spread was 84 with a decrease of 38 [2] Second Part: Market Analysis - **Peanut Price**: Peanut prices in Henan increased, while those in the Northeast remained stable. The expected short - term peanut spot price is relatively strong. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price at 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton and the theoretical cost - price at 8110 yuan/ton [4] - **By - products**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3030 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and the short - term peanut meal price is weak, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3260 yuan/ton [5][8] - **Overall Market**: Recently, the purchase price of oil mills, domestic peanut prices, and imported peanut prices have remained stable. The supply is still low, and the downstream demand is weak. The peanut price is relatively weak in the short - term. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are stable, and the oil mill's theoretical profit is acceptable [9] Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Wait and see for the 10 - peanut's low - level shock, and mainly take short positions after a rebound [10] - **Month - spread**: Wait and see [11] - **Options**: Hold the sold pk510 - C - 8400 option [12] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six charts including Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill's pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [14][20][24]

花生油市场上，王朝晖介绍，国家粮油中心的数据显示，2024/2025年度，我国花生产量增加40万吨， 食用消费和压榨需求分别较上一年度增加10万吨和30万吨，但因进口收缩，该年度结转库存降至低位。 新作方面，当前，花生正处于关键生长期，未来需要关注花生长势、收割期天气情况、新作单产以及进 口情况。 （文章来源：期货日报） 8月20日，由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛正式 开启。在当日下午举行的农产品（油脂油料）论坛上，中粮油脂副总经理王朝晖围绕供需格局变化下， 国内菜籽油、花生油市场面临的风险及应对方法作主题演讲。 菜油市场上，王朝晖预计，2025/2026年度我国油菜籽新增供给1960万吨，其中产量1710万吨，进口量 250万吨。国内进口油菜籽压榨量及开机率受产地产量和进口影响波动较大，预计今年四季度之前国内 菜籽油供给充足。 ...

Group 1: Market Impact and Product Development - The preliminary ruling on anti-dumping investigations against Canadian canola seeds may impact the company's canola business, but the overall effect is expected to be minimal due to the ability to substitute with soybean products [2] - The "Golden Fish Fengyitang" health product line has received positive feedback, with some products achieving a repurchase rate exceeding 30% [3] - The company is leveraging its extensive production base and partner network for experiential marketing to enhance brand loyalty [3] Group 2: Economic and Regulatory Environment - The "ban on alcohol" and "takeout subsidy war" may temporarily affect the restaurant industry, but the company's core business of staple food products is expected to remain stable in the long term [4] - The palm oil price is projected to stabilize in the short term due to supply constraints and fluctuating demand [5] Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategy - In the first half of 2025, the company's kitchen food distribution revenue grew by approximately 7% year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in the number of distributors [6] - The feed raw materials and oil technology segment has seen improved gross margins, driven by lower soybean prices and stable downstream demand [7] Group 4: Business Expansion and Consumer Trends - The central kitchen food park business is progressing, although expansion has been slightly slower than expected due to cautious attitudes from potential partners [8] - The company is focusing on high-end products, which have shown steady growth, while also maintaining competitiveness in the mid-range and mass markets [8] - The small packaging trend is gaining traction, with a significant shift in consumer preferences towards smaller product sizes [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot market is in a weak and stable oscillation pattern with weak demand, and prices are expected to remain in this state. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness [1][2] - In the second half of August and early September, peanut supply will gradually increase, and the supply - demand relationship will be in a weak balance. The prices of new and old peanuts will restrict each other, and the procurement of the domestic market will be cautious. Pay attention to the weather in Henan [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Peanut Market Review - Spot market: As of August 14, 2025, the national average price of general peanuts was 8400 yuan/ton, a 1.18% decline from the previous week. The market was weak and stable, and demand was weak [1] - Futures market: In the week of August 15, the peanut futures declined. The highest price of the main contract (PK2511) was 8020 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7818 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7822 yuan/ton (previous week's closing was 7952 yuan/ton) [1] Peanut Market Outlook - Spot market: From mid - to late August, spring peanuts in southern and northern Henan will be listed one after another, and garlic and wheat - stubble peanuts will enter the listing period in early September. The supply will gradually increase, and the supply - demand relationship will show a weak balance. The prices of new and old peanuts will restrict each other, and the procurement of the domestic market will be cautious. Pay attention to the weather in Henan [2] - Futures market: The pattern is near - term strength and far - term weakness. The de - stocking of cold - storage peanuts by middlemen is slow, and as the new - season peanuts are approaching the listing time, the willingness to sell is increasing. The driving force for the spot price to rise is weak [2] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Henan Baisha general peanuts is weakening, while the basis of Sudan refined peanuts is strengthening [6] - Spread: The 11 - 1 spread is weakening (data update stopped), and the 10 - 11 spread is presented [7] Price Data - The raw material procurement of several peanut varieties in different regions has basically ended, and there is no comparable price [10] - The arrival volume of 6 oil - using peanut markets was about 0.52 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.02% and a year - on - year decline of 8.59%. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.2 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.35% and a year - on - year decline of 48.48%. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 0.72 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 8.11% and a year - on - year decline of 24.53% [13] Supply - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 74.29% and a year - on - year decline of 95% [24] Oil Mill Conditions - The mainstream quotation of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,200 yuan/ton, with stable quotations but bargaining space in actual transactions. The terminal consumption market was weak [24] - The mainstream quotation of peanut meal was 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton, with stable quotations but bargaining space in actual transactions. The terminal breeding demand was limited, and the overall transaction was light [24] - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was - 72.8 yuan/ton, a 33.4 - yuan increase from last week [24] - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 10.06%, a 0.68% increase from last week and a 3.83% increase from the same period last year [24] - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.78 million tons, a 7.2% increase from last week and a 61.48% increase from last year [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of peanuts has decreased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is stable, while in the Northeast it is weak. The purchase price of oil mills is stable. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has significantly decreased. The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased, the spot price of peanut meal is strong, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The profit of oil mill pressing has slightly increased. Downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanut oil in oil mills has decreased, and the peanut inventory has also declined but remains at a high level. This week, the price of October peanuts fluctuated at the bottom after rising and then falling due to the influence of oils and fats. The spread between October and January contracts is stable. Some spring peanuts have been listed, but the demand is weak. The planting area of new - crop peanuts has increased, and the planting cost has decreased. The spot price of peanuts continues to fall, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [6]. - Recommended strategies include trying the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8400, establishing short positions for October peanuts above 8200, and conducting reverse arbitrage for the October - January spread when it is high [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option strategy: Try selling the pk510 - C - 8400 option strategy [5]. - Futures strategy: Establish short positions for October peanuts above 8200, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the October - January spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, the price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of general peanuts has declined. In domestic markets, the price of peanuts in Henan is stable, while in the Northeast it has fallen. The general peanut trading is average, and the price has dropped. The basic purchase price of oil mills is between 7500 - 7650 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to last week. The price of Sudanese peanuts is 8300 yuan/ton, also stable compared to last week [9][11]. - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased. As of August 15th, the weekly operating rate of peanut oil mills is 5.26%, a 0.15% increase from the previous week. The arrival volume of oil mills is 0.02 million tons, a decrease. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 89,500 tons, a decrease of 7000 tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory is 39,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [15]. - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanuts by oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal has slightly increased, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The pressing profit of oil mills is 124 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan increase from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,900 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to last week. The price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,800 yuan/ton, also stable. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is strong, reaching 3270 yuan/ton this week, a 10 - yuan increase from last week [19]. - **Basis and Spread**: The spread between October and January peanuts is stable at around 140 yuan. The spot - futures price difference has declined. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [24]. - **Peanut Import**: In June, the import volume of peanut kernels was 27,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 94,000 tons, a 76% decrease compared to the same period last year. In June, the export volume of peanut kernels was 1000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 78,000 tons, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. In June, the import volume of peanut oil was 39,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 182,000 tons, a 33% increase compared to last year [29]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: Charts show the historical price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the purchase price of oil mills, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [10]. - **Domestic Demand**: Charts display the historical operating rate of peanut oil mills, the peanut kernel inventory, and the pressing volume of oil mills [14]. - **Pressing Profit**: Charts present the historical pressing profit of oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil [18]. - **Basis and Spread**: Charts show the historical basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts, and the spread trends between January - April, April - October, and October - January contracts [23][39]. - **Peanut Import**: Charts and data illustrate the historical import and export volumes of peanut kernels and peanut oil, as well as the year - on - year changes in cumulative import volumes [28][42]. - **Downstream**: Charts display the historical operating rate of pressing plants, the peanut pressing volume, and the peanut oil inventory in oil mills [52]. - **Peanut Oil Import**: Charts and data show the historical import price and cumulative import volume of peanut oil, and the import volume of peanut oil from different countries [56][59]. - **Price Differences**: Charts present the historical price differences between soybean meal and peanut meal, peanut oil and soybean oil, peanut oil and sunflower oil, and peanut oil and rapeseed oil [61][66].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 | 期货从业证号： | | | | 第一部分 | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | F03107370 | | | | 花生数据日报 | | | | 2025/8/13 | | 投资咨询证号： | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | Z0018389 | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | | PK604 | 8028 | 68 | 0.85% | 72 | 453.85% | 266 | 3.50% | | 联系方式： | PK510 | 8116 | 36 | 0.44% | 64,408 | 124.98% | 89,499 | -6.47% | | :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c | PK601 | 8002 | 32 | 0.40% | 13,847 | 350.60% | 20,362 | 16.05% | | om.cn | 现 ...

投资咨询证号： Z0018389 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/8/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7960 | -10 | -0.13% | 24 | 26.32% | 252 | 6.33% | | PK510 | | 8074 | -24 | -0.30% | 34,942 | 3.59% | 98,959 | -0.27% | | PK601 | | 7948 | -10 | -0.13% | 3,815 | 76.70% | 16,339 | 8.21% | | 现货与基差 | | | ...