1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 3600 high, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined. The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price [11]. - This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400). It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Valuation**: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3600, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The weekly increase in styrene shows cost > futures > spot, the basis has weakened, the BZN spread has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined [11]. - **Cost**: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose by 1.15%, and the pure benzene operating rate has declined from its peak [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, a year - on - year increase of 14.26%, and a decrease of 0.13% compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter. There are no planned maintenance in August, and the supply side may face pressure under the high operating rate [11]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 3.5456 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.59% and a year - on - year increase of 23.57%, mainly from the Middle East. The EB import volume in June was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.78% and a year - on - year increase of 43.13%. This week, the pure benzene port inventory and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports have decreased from their high levels [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 39.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12%. The PS operating rate is 55.00%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.33%. The EPS operating rate is 43.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The ABS operating rate is 71.10%, a week - on - week increase of 7.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.94%. During the seasonal off - season, the demand for ABS is relatively good [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant EB inventory is 210,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 31.59%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports is 148,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.42% and a year - on - year increase of 359.26%. The port inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - **Summary and Forecast**: The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price. This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400) [11]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, spreads between different contracts, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [14][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [33][34][36] - **Profit**: The profit of styrene production processes such as ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM has been oscillating downward. The proportion of styrene production processes is 85% for ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% for PO/SM co - production, and 3% for C8 extraction. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [39][41][45] 3.4 Cost Side - **Capacity and Production**: The design capacity, production, and growth rate of pure benzene in China are presented. The composition of pure benzene in China includes 71.0% petroleum benzene, 14.0% hydrogenated benzene, and 15.0% imported benzene. The profit distribution of the crude oil - naphtha - pure benzene - styrene - PS industrial chain is also shown [49] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, pure benzene will maintain a de - stocking trend, especially in the third quarter when the supply gap will increase significantly. The production plans of pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.28 million tons for pure benzene and 3.11 million tons for its downstream products [54][55] - **Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years. The operating rates of related products such as hydrogenated pure benzene, phenol, aniline, caprolactam, and adipic acid are also presented [68][71][76] - **Inventory**: The caprolactam factory inventory is decreasing from its high level. The monthly import volume of pure benzene is also shown [89][94][96] 3.5 Supply Side - **Supply Gap**: In 2025, styrene will start to be in short supply from the third quarter, and the gap may gradually narrow. The production plans of styrene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.42 million tons for styrene and 4.198 million tons for its downstream products [101][104][107] - **Production and Operating Rate**: There are no planned maintenance in August, and the styrene production is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. The daily production, export volume, weekly operating rate, and import volume of styrene are presented [113][114][116] 3.6 Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast**: The capacity, production, and growth rate of styrene downstream products such as ABS, PS, and EPS are presented [124][125][126] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of EPS and PS are seasonally oscillating, while the ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level. The production profits, factory inventories, and downstream demand proportions of these products are also shown [128][132][134] - **End - User Demand**: The monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are presented, reflecting the downstream demand for styrene [148][157][158]