1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 3600 high, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined. The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price [11]. - This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400). It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Valuation**: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3600, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The weekly increase in styrene shows cost > futures > spot, the basis has weakened, the BZN spread has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined [11]. - **Cost**: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose by 1.15%, and the pure benzene operating rate has declined from its peak [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, a year - on - year increase of 14.26%, and a decrease of 0.13% compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter. There are no planned maintenance in August, and the supply side may face pressure under the high operating rate [11]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 3.5456 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.59% and a year - on - year increase of 23.57%, mainly from the Middle East. The EB import volume in June was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.78% and a year - on - year increase of 43.13%. This week, the pure benzene port inventory and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports have decreased from their high levels [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 39.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12%. The PS operating rate is 55.00%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.33%. The EPS operating rate is 43.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The ABS operating rate is 71.10%, a week - on - week increase of 7.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.94%. During the seasonal off - season, the demand for ABS is relatively good [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant EB inventory is 210,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 31.59%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports is 148,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.42% and a year - on - year increase of 359.26%. The port inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - **Summary and Forecast**: The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price. This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400) [11]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, spreads between different contracts, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [14][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [33][34][36] - **Profit**: The profit of styrene production processes such as ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM has been oscillating downward. The proportion of styrene production processes is 85% for ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% for PO/SM co - production, and 3% for C8 extraction. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [39][41][45] 3.4 Cost Side - **Capacity and Production**: The design capacity, production, and growth rate of pure benzene in China are presented. The composition of pure benzene in China includes 71.0% petroleum benzene, 14.0% hydrogenated benzene, and 15.0% imported benzene. The profit distribution of the crude oil - naphtha - pure benzene - styrene - PS industrial chain is also shown [49] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, pure benzene will maintain a de - stocking trend, especially in the third quarter when the supply gap will increase significantly. The production plans of pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.28 million tons for pure benzene and 3.11 million tons for its downstream products [54][55] - **Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years. The operating rates of related products such as hydrogenated pure benzene, phenol, aniline, caprolactam, and adipic acid are also presented [68][71][76] - **Inventory**: The caprolactam factory inventory is decreasing from its high level. The monthly import volume of pure benzene is also shown [89][94][96] 3.5 Supply Side - **Supply Gap**: In 2025, styrene will start to be in short supply from the third quarter, and the gap may gradually narrow. The production plans of styrene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.42 million tons for styrene and 4.198 million tons for its downstream products [101][104][107] - **Production and Operating Rate**: There are no planned maintenance in August, and the styrene production is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. The daily production, export volume, weekly operating rate, and import volume of styrene are presented [113][114][116] 3.6 Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast**: The capacity, production, and growth rate of styrene downstream products such as ABS, PS, and EPS are presented [124][125][126] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of EPS and PS are seasonally oscillating, while the ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level. The production profits, factory inventories, and downstream demand proportions of these products are also shown [128][132][134] - **End - User Demand**: The monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are presented, reflecting the downstream demand for styrene [148][157][158]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Urea - Despite high domestic urea daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline. The release of aid - related export orders from May to June and the upcoming summer top - dressing season are expected to support the market. However, price increases will be cautious, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [5]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. In the short term, after the market digests macro - level positives, it may focus on the impact of geopolitical factors on supply. Oil prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and consider strategies to capture volatility on the options side [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand outlook is improving, but the current spot supply is still loose. Consider opportunities such as long PX05 and short crude oil [18]. - PTA: Supply - demand may gradually weaken, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. TA01 is expected to oscillate between 4800 - 5000 [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand will gradually weaken, and there is pressure on the upside in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to port inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [18]. - Short Fiber: The processing fee is expected to be compressed, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. PF02 is expected to operate between 6800 - 7100 [18]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is in a concentrated maintenance phase, and the demand from the alumina industry is improving. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is strong. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities near the resistance level of 2550 [26]. - PVC: Although the futures market has strengthened slightly, the supply - demand surplus problem persists. It is recommended to wait and see during price rebounds and consider short - selling in the medium term [26]. Styrene - In the short term, styrene is expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The operating range of 06 is expected to move up to 7000 - 7600. Pay attention to the continuity of spot transactions [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - The supply pressure of plastics will gradually decrease in May. The supply pressure of PP will ease slightly in the second quarter. Pay attention to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [32]. Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The port has entered a inventory - building period. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high prices [35][37]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - On May 12, the 01 contract closed at 1801 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from May 9; the 05 contract closed at 1925 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the 09 contract closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the methanol main contract closed at 2270 yuan/ton, up 1.93% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 12, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 124 yuan/ton, up 14.48% from May 9; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 28 yuan/ton, down 33.33% [2]. Upstream Raw Materials - As of May 13, the prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces, steam coal, and synthetic ammonia remained unchanged compared to May 12 [3]. Spot Market Prices - As of May 13, domestic and international spot prices of urea remained unchanged [3]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily data: Domestic urea daily production decreased by 1.20% to 19.72 million tons on May 8 compared to before. - Weekly data: Domestic urea weekly production increased by 0.21% to 139.60 million tons; factory inventory decreased by 10.58% to 106.56 million tons; port inventory increased by 12.71% to 13.30 million tons [5]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 13, Brent crude oil was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.64% from May 12; WTI was at 61.96 dollars/barrel, up 0.02%; SC was at 474.80 yuan/barrel, up 1.34% [14]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [18]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 12, POY150/48 price was 6675 yuan/ton, up 1.4% from May 9; FDY150/96 price was 6845 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [18]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at 785 dollars/ton on May 12, unchanged from May 9 [18]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4840 yuan/ton on May 12, up 2.7% from May 9 [18]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 12, down 6.8% from May 6 [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - On May 12, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from before; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4660 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda was at 395 dollars/ton on May 8, down 1.3% from May 1 [22]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.5% on May 9, up 1.3% from May 2; PVC total operating rate was 77.9%, up 1.4% [24]. Styrene Upstream and Related Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [29]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot price was 7530 yuan/ton on May 12, up 5.0% from May 9 [29]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - EPS ordinary material (East China) was at 8250 yuan/ton on May 12, down 1.2% from May 9 [29]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 13.40 million tons on May 7, up 10.7% from April 30; styrene East China port inventory was 6.25 million tons, down 15.3% [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) Prices and Spreads - On May 12, L2505 closed at 7282 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from May 9; PP2505 closed at 7100 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [32]. Operating Rates and Inventory - PE device operating rate was 84.1% on May 12, down 0.91% from before; PP device operating rate was 79.7%, up 7.2% [32]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 12, MA2505 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from May 9; the spread between MA2505 and MA2509 was 68 yuan/ton, up 7.94% [35]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory was 30.391% on May 12, up 7.26% from before; upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.65%, up 1.64% [35].