证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：局部地区春季订单开始释放，长丝盈利仍在改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 11 月 21 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2389.69 元/吨，环比变化+52.43 元/吨（+2.24%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1446.16 元/吨，环比变化+6.66 元/吨 （+0.4 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 美汽油裂差高位震荡， 纯苯美-韩价差新高 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/11/22 CONTENTS 目录 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，宏观情绪转强，资本市场及大宗商品止跌反弹。纯苯-石脑油（BZN价差）上涨，EB非一体化 装置利润上涨，整体估值中性偏低。苯乙烯供应端压力较大，需求端进入季节性旺季尾声，下游三S开工出现回落，港口库存高 位震荡。短期地缘导致原油价格中枢上移，成本端原油或将驱动苯乙烯价格震荡上行。但中长期供需双弱背景下，苯乙烯价格 或将保持下降趋势。美国汽油裂解价差高位盘整，纯苯美-韩价差强势上行，创同期新高。 本周预测：纯苯（BZ2603）：参考整荡区间（5400-5700）；苯乙烯(EB2601)：参考震荡区间（6400-6700）。 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场 ...

人民财讯11月21日电，国内期货夜盘收盘多数下跌，苯乙烯跌近3%，LU燃油、纯苯、液化气跌超2%， BR橡胶、棕榈油、燃料油、橡胶跌超1%；玉米、玻璃小幅上涨。 （原标题：国内期货夜盘收盘多数下跌 苯乙烯跌近3%） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 本月OPEC+会议决定在12月增产13.7万桶/日，并在2026年一季度暂停增产，下次会议将于11月30日举行。原油需求旺季结束，美国原油 累库幅度增加。乌克兰使用无人机袭击了俄罗斯的石油储存设施及多处炼油设施，叠加美国对俄罗斯的卢克公司的制裁宽限期结束，自11月21 日开始，所有与该公司的交易均被禁止，预计将进一步制约俄罗斯石油的出口规模，地缘摩擦对俄油供应的担忧持续为油价提供支撑。市场情绪 上对未来原油供应过剩格形成共识，预计原油价格走势偏弱震荡。 PX&PTA 印度BIS认证取消，PX国内整体负荷达维持高位，市场再度炒作调油套利，需求端PTA新增产能释放而表现尚佳，供需格局偏紧，PXN价格 持稳在250美元左右，预计PX价格跟随原油价格震荡。周内PTA两套装置停车检修，周开工率下降到74.29%，聚酯负荷高位持稳，周内产销有 放量。当前反内卷情绪再起，但在实质政策落地前，年前格局供增需弱，有小幅累库预期。PTA加工差修复仍低位运行，预计短期内依旧跟随成 本端震荡为主。 MEG 国内乙二醇整体负荷小幅下降，但有新置试车进一步增强了市 ...

芳烃市场周报： 成本端弱势延续，调油仍有驱动 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年11月21日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价当前低位震荡，支撑偏弱，石脑油价格当前573美元，PXCFR价格832美元。中石化11月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至6800元/吨，10月 中石化PX结算价格6620元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为74.81万吨，环比上周-0.41%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比上周-0.36%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率79.38%，环 比-0.33%。上海石化60万吨装置检修重启，中化泉州PX装置故障，目前运行负荷50%。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机。PX工厂的生产 积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位。 • 需求：下游PTA产能利用率74.29%，环比-1.89%，同比-6.74%。周内西南及华东装置检修，供应端持续缩量，本周期国内PTA整体产能利用 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 纯苯累库加速，苯乙烯再现分化 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：11 月 20 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.55%，报 6595 元/吨，基 差 20（+19 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 1.14%，报 5595 元/吨。 成本：11 月 20 日布油主力收盘 59.4 美元/桶（-1.3 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 63.5 美元/桶（-1.4 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5420 元/吨（+25 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 15.2%，苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨（+3.4 万吨），环比累 库 30.1%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 69.0%（-0.3%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.3% （+4.6%），ABS 产能利用率 72.4%（+0.6%），PS 产能利用率 55.9% （+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For pure benzene, low US gasoline inventory supports Asian aromatics through gasoline blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has been significantly repaired, potentially easing long - term Chinese arrival pressure, but short - term arrival pressure still exists, with rising port inventory and a weak basis. Domestic production has not further increased after an earlier rise, and downstream开工 remains low. Phenol开工 has increased significantly, while aniline and adipic acid开工 have declined, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [3]. - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boost and low domestic开工, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Downstream开工 remains low, with EPS开工 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工 slightly rising from a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene consecutive first - to - third contract spread [1][15]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and EB consecutive first - to - third contract spread [20]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Production profit and spread figures for pure benzene and styrene include naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various international price spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as their import profits [22][25][34]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, the inventory figure is the East China port inventory, and the operating rate figure is the pure benzene operating rate. For styrene, inventory figures include East China port inventory, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory, and the operating rate figure is the styrene operating rate [40][42][45]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of styrene include EPS, PS, and ABS. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [51][53][54]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of pure benzene include caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other related products. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [60][63][72]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [4]. - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]