1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals show that the Hengli 720,000 - tonne plant restarted, and the load of some plants in North and South China was adjusted. The styrene output decreased by 0.71% to 350,900 tonnes, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.51% to 69.95%. The downstream operating rates mainly declined, with the consumption of the EPS, PS, and ABS industries decreasing by 0.98% to 263,200 tonnes. Factory inventory decreased by 7.47% to 164,900 tonnes, East China port inventory decreased by 4.63% to 160,600 tonnes, and South China port inventory decreased by 4.00% to 48,000 tonnes. Recently, there are both shutdown and restart of styrene plants. The tight supply of upstream ethylene restricts the operating load of downstream plants, and the styrene supply is not expected to increase significantly. The downstream industries are polarized, with the EPS industry increasing its operating load due to good profits, while the PS and ABS industries have low profits and reduced operations. The Middle - East raw material supply issue impacts the overseas chemical market, and there are positive news on the export side. EB2605 is expected to open lower in the morning and fluctuate with oil prices during the day [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for styrene was 9,856 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 741 yuan. The trading volume was 885,149 lots, an increase of 93,769 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 301,088 lots, a decrease of 5,453 lots. The 3 - month contract closing price was 8,512 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 496 yuan. The open interest was 207,278 lots, a decrease of 16,331 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 holders were - 5,641 lots, a decrease of 4,843 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders were 306,729 lots, a decrease of 610 lots. The total warehouse receipts were 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 10,890 yuan/tonne, an increase of 330 yuan. The mainstream price in Northeast China was 10,925 yuan/tonne, an increase of 400 yuan. The mainstream price in South China was 11,150 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 300 yuan. The mainstream price in North China was 10,550 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 300 yuan. The mainstream price in East China was 10,775 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 300 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 1,501 US dollars/tonne, an increase of 60 US dollars. The FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 716 US dollars/tonne, unchanged. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 429 US cents/gallon, an increase of 16 US cents. The CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 1,154.64 US dollars/tonne, unchanged. The FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 1,199 US dollars/tonne, a decrease of 1 US dollar. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 9,000 yuan/tonne, unchanged. The market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 8,805 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 135 yuan. The market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 8,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points. The national styrene inventory was 164,900 tonnes, a decrease of 13,310 tonnes. The total inventory at the East China main port was 160,600 tonnes, a decrease of 7,800 tonnes. The EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27 percentage points. The ABS operating rate was 62.6%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The PS operating rate was 51.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The UPR operating rate was 35%, a decrease of 2 percentage points. The butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate was 73.53%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 350,900 tonnes, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous week, and the plant capacity utilization rate dropped to 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points. The consumption of the main downstream industries (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene in China was 263,200 tonnes, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous week. As of March 26th, the inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 164,900 tonnes, a decrease of 7.47% from the previous week. As of March 30th, the inventory at the East China port was 160,600 tonnes, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous week, and the inventory at the South China port was 48,000 tonnes, a decrease of 4.00%. EB2605 fell 7.38% to close at 9,856 yuan/tonne. The US President said that the war against Iran would end in "two to three weeks", and the Iranian President said that he was willing to end the war on the premise that his demands were met. The market expected the geopolitical situation in the Middle East to ease, and domestic crude oil and petrochemicals declined [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation between the US and Iran remains tense as the shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz is still low, and the follow - up actions of US ground forces are yet to be observed [3]. - For pure benzene, Chinese port inventories are gradually decreasing, and domestic refineries are operating at a low level. The subsequent rate of port inventory reduction is related to the rate of decline in imports. South Korea may adjust its delivery plans and consider restricting the export of petrochemical products [3]. - For styrene, although the current inventory reduction is slow, there are expectations of faster inventory reduction in the future. The supply side may see a delay in the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the downstream start - up shows differentiation [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene [8][15]. - Figures related to styrene include the basis of the styrene main contract and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [16][19]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to production profits and spreads include naphtha processing fees, the spread between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and various spreads between different regions of pure benzene and styrene [22][25][33]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, it includes the inventory in East China ports and the operating rate [42]. - For styrene, it includes the inventory in East China ports, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and the operating rate [45][47]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - It includes the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [55][60][62]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - It includes the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products [65][69][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the proximal TA has partial restarts and increased load, with开工 rate rising. Polyester reduces load due to filament production cuts, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, disproportionation and isomerization benefits are compressed, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread rebounds. There are potential short - term long - allocation opportunities as PX destocking is expected to be gradually realized [2]. - For MEG, the proximal domestic oil - based load reduction slows down, coal - based restarts partially, and the开工 rate rises. Overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, the basis is stable, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits increase. Supply may still have some load reduction, and with increased export/transshipment trade, the destocking speed may accelerate in the short term. The long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the开工 rate rises to 91.0% as some plants increase load. Sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. On the demand side, the yarn production start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory is maintained, finished product inventory accumulates, and benefits weaken. The short - term upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to whether there will be passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, PTA spot price increased from 102.2 to 118.4, PTA device in Fujian Bahong with a capacity of 2.5 million tons reduced load. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2605 is - 58 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Proximal TA restarts and increases load, polyester reduces load, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread rebounds [2]. - **Outlook**: There are potential short - term long - allocation opportunities as PX destocking is expected to be gradually realized [2]. MEG - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, MEG outer - market price increased from 595 to 640, and the Henan Coal Industry's 200,000 - ton device restarted. The basis of MEG spot transactions is around + 2 for 05 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Proximal domestic oil - based load reduction slows down, coal - based restarts partially, and the开工 rate rises. Overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, the basis is stable, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits increase [2]. - **Outlook**: Supply may still have some load reduction, and with increased export/transshipment trade, the destocking speed may accelerate in the short term. The long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 8060 to 8320, and the开工 rate rose to 91.0%. The spot price is around 8295, and the market basis is around - 50 for 06 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Some plants increase load, sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. On the demand side, the yarn production start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory is maintained, finished product inventory accumulates, and benefits weaken [2]. - **Outlook**: The short - term upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to whether there will be passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 2000 to 2015, and there are various price changes in other types of rubber. The main strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Market Analysis**: No detailed market analysis provided in the given content. - **Outlook**: Wait and see [2]. Benzene and Its Derivatives - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 1400 on March 31, and there are price changes in pure benzene, benzene ethylene, and their downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [5]. - **Market Analysis**: No detailed market analysis provided in the given content. - **Outlook**: No outlook provided in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Categories Black Series - For silicon iron (SF603), the futures price is 5978, the basis is 104, the spot price is 5874, the basis rate is 1.80%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 71.50% [1] - For silicon manganese (SM603), the futures price is 6600, the basis is 156, the spot price is 6444, the basis rate is 2.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 57.30% [1] - For rebar (RB2605), the futures price is 3121, the basis is 99, the spot price is 3220, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 47.10% [1] - For hot - rolled coil (HC2605), the futures price is 3280, the basis is - 14, the spot price is 3294, the basis rate is - 0.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.60% [1] - For iron ore (I2605), the futures price is 808, the basis is 28, the spot price is 836, the basis rate is 3.40%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.50% [1] - For coke (J2605), the futures price is 1702, the basis is 54, the spot price is 1756, the basis rate is 3.20%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 86.80% [1] - For main coking coal (S1.3 G75, Mongolian No.5) at Shaheyi, the futures price is 1149, the basis is 130, the spot price is 1278, the basis rate is 11.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.60% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - For copper (CU2605), the futures price is 95340, the basis is 260, the spot price is 95600, the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 77.70% [1] - For aluminum (AL2605), the futures price is 24610, the basis is - 265, the spot price is 24875, the basis rate is - 1.07%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 8.10% [1] - For alumina (AO2605), the futures price is 2788, the basis is - 39, the spot price is 2827, the basis rate is - 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For zinc (ZN2605), the futures price is 23480, the basis is - 120, the spot price is 23360, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.50% [1] - For tin (SN2605), the futures price is 368000, the basis is 3550, the spot price is 371550, the basis rate is 0.96%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.90% [1] - For nickel (NI2605), the futures price is 135000, the basis is 220, the spot price is 134780, the basis rate is 0.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 65.80% [1] - For stainless steel (SS2605), the futures price is 14160, the basis is 410, the spot price is 14400, the basis rate is 2.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 70.60% [1] - For lithium carbonate (LC2605), the futures price is 157200, the basis is 5800, the spot price is 163000, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 97.80% [1] - For industrial silicon (SI2605), the futures price is 8322, the basis is 795, the spot price is 9150, the basis rate is 9.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 53.80% [1] Precious Metals - For gold (AU2606), the futures price is 1015.7, the basis is - 4.4, the spot price is 1020.10, the basis rate is - 0.43%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.30% [1] - For silver (AG2606), the futures price is 18031.0, the basis is - 95.0, the spot price is 18126.0, the basis rate is - 0.52%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 7.00% [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2605), the futures price is 2915, the basis is 205, the spot price is 3120, the basis rate is 7.03%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 61.90% [1] - For soybean oil (Y2605), the futures price is 8668, the basis is 262, the spot price is 8930, the basis rate is 3.02%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 55.40% [1] - For palm oil (P2605), the futures price is 9866, the basis is - 46, the spot price is 9820, the basis rate is - 0.47%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 13.30% [1] - For rapeseed meal (RM605), the futures price is 2299, the basis is 11, the spot price is 2310, the basis rate is 0.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.70% [1] - For rapeseed oil (OI605), the futures price is 9884, the basis is 516, the spot price is 10400, the basis rate is 5.22%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.70% [1] - For corn (C2605), the futures price is 2351, the basis is 29, the spot price is 2380, the basis rate is 1.23%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 49.00% [1] - For corn starch (CS2605), the futures price is 2745, the basis is 155, the spot price is 2900, the basis rate is 5.65%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 76.90% [1] - For live pigs (LH2605), the futures price is 9770, the basis is - 420, the spot price is 10190, the basis rate is - 4.30%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 28.10% [1] - For eggs (D2605), the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 40, the spot price is 3440, the basis rate is - 1.16%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.40% [1] - For cotton, the futures price is 15295, the basis is 1352, the spot price is 16650, the basis rate is 8.86%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 91.00% [1] - For sugar (SR605), the futures price is 5398, the basis is 62, the spot price is 5460, the basis rate is 1.15%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 9.70% [1] - For apples (AP605), the futures price is 9800, the basis is - 26, the spot price is 9826, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 23.00% [1] - For red dates (CJ605), the futures price is 7900, the basis is - 850, the spot price is 8750, the basis rate is - 9.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 48.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - For paraxylene (PX605), the futures price is 9700.0, the basis is 268.8, the spot price is 9968.77, the basis rate is 2.77%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 92.30% [1] - For PTA (TA605), the futures price is 6684.0, the basis is - 44.0, the spot price is 6640.0, the basis rate is - 0.66%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 42.60% [1] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), the futures price is 5218.0, the basis is 147.0, the spot price is 5365.0, the basis rate is 2.82%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 94.50% [1] - For ethanol (EG2605), the futures price is 8246.0, the basis is 74.0, the spot price is 8320.0, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 62.90% [1] - For styrene (EB2605), the futures price is 10597.0, the basis is 158.0, the spot price is 10755.0, the basis rate is 1.49%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 60.30% [1] - For methanol (MA605), the futures price is 3229.0, the basis is 116.0, the spot price is 3345.0, the basis rate is 3.59%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 84.10% [1] - For urea (UR605), the futures price is 1874.0, the basis is 26.0, the spot price is 1900.0, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 25.60% [1] - For LLDPE (L2605), the futures price is 8614.0, the basis is 86.0, the spot price is 8700.0, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 52.90% [1] - For PP (PP2605), the futures price is 9103.0, the basis is 172.0, the spot price is 9275.0, the basis rate is 1.89%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 72.50% [1] - For PVC (V2605), the futures price is 5353.0, the basis is - 133.0, the spot price is 5220.0, the basis rate is - 2.48%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 45.10% [1] - For caustic soda (SH605), the futures price is 2340.0, the basis is - 36.9, the spot price is 2303.1, the basis rate is - 1.58%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 41.10% [1] - For LPG (PG2605), the futures price is 6339.0, the basis is 1009.0, the spot price is 7348.0, the basis rate is 15.92%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 95.50% [1] - For asphalt (BU2606), the futures price is 4512.0, the basis is - 92.0, the spot price is 4420.0, the basis rate is - 2.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 32.80% [1] - For butadiene rubber (BR2605), the futures price is 17350.0, the basis is 1150.0, the spot price is 18500.0, the basis rate is 6.63%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 99.50% [1] - For glass (FG605), the futures price is 1019.0, the basis is - 67.0, the spot price is 952.0, the basis rate is - 7.04%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 56.09% [1] - For soda ash (SA605), the futures price is 1177.0, the basis is - 20.0, the spot price is 1157.0, the basis rate is - 1.73%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 46.84% [1] - For pure benzene (BZ2605), the futures price is 8790.0, the basis is 150.0, the spot price is 8940.0, the basis rate is 1.71%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.80% [1] - For propylene (PL2605), the futures price is 8795.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 8750.0, the basis rate is - 0.51%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 36.90% [1] - For bottle chips (PR2605), the futures price is 8525.0, the basis is 335.0, the spot price is 8190.0, the basis rate is 4.09%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 98.50% [1] - For natural rubber (RU2605), the futures price is 16345.0, the basis is - 45.0, the spot price is 16300.0, the basis rate is - 0.28%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 90.35% [1] Financial Assets - For IF2606.CFE, the futures price is 4450.0493, the basis is - 74.2493, the spot price is 4375.8, the basis rate is - 1.70%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 2.50% [1] - For IH2606.CFE, the futures price is 2837.3064, the basis is - 22.9064, the spot price is 2814.4, the basis rate is - 0.81%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 5.70% [1] - For IC2606.CFE, the futures price is 7753.7234, the basis is - 193.1234, the spot price is 7560.6, the basis rate is - 2.55%, and the historical quantile of the basis rate is 0.30% [1] - For IM2606.CFE, the futures price is 7619.8503, the basis is - 240.4503, the spot price is 7379.4, the basis rate

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it provides trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, LLDPE, PP, LPG, and propylene have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; while most other commodities such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, etc., have a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; and PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend strength of - 1, showing a relatively negative short - term outlook [11][13][16]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical commodities, highlighting the impact of factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes on commodity prices. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are a major factor affecting the market, causing supply disruptions and price fluctuations. For example, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of raw materials such as naphtha and crude oil, which in turn impacts downstream products [22][58]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. Some commodities face supply contractions, such as PX and MEG in April, while others have stable or increasing supply, like PVC. Demand also varies, with some downstream industries showing weak demand, such as the textile and paper industries, while others have relatively stable or growing demand [4][8][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a short - term oscillating market, there is a contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Although the inventory is sufficient, supply may decrease in April. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [4][11]. - **PTA**: Also in a short - term oscillating market, with sufficient supply in the short term but expected supply contraction in April. It is advisable not to chase high prices but to buy on dips and maintain a positive spread operation when the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **MEG**: In a short - term high - level oscillating market. Supply is expected to decrease in April, with a reduction in imports from the Middle East and an increase in exports. The port inventory is expected to decline faster, and the 5 - 9 spread should be in a positive spread operation [12]. Rubber - In a wide - range oscillating market. As of March 29, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. Some tire enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance, and the upward space of the natural rubber market is limited due to factors such as the high level of overseas raw material prices and the weakening boost of synthetic rubber [13][14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In an intraday wide - range oscillating market. The inventory of butadiene decreased this week, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased. The basic situation provides support for prices, but geopolitical conflicts may increase price volatility [16][17][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. The cost of PE increases due to geopolitical factors, and the supply of standard products is expected to decline in April [20][22]. - **PP**: In April, the number of cracking and PDH maintenance increases, providing strong supply support. The cost of C3 is supported, and the demand improves after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises [21][22]. Caustic Soda - At a low valuation level. Although there is short - term pressure such as delivery and high inventory, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the long - term, and the market is expected to be strong. It is necessary to track overseas device dynamics and Chinese export signing situations [26][28]. Pulp - In an oscillating operation. The demand is weak, the market trading of softwood pulp is light, and the price of hardwood pulp is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction at ports and the change in downstream replenishment willingness [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand. The trading is slightly slow [35][36]. Methanol - In a high - level oscillating market. The spot price is adjusted differently, and the port inventory continues to decline. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to be strong, and the upper limit of valuation is affected by geopolitical factors [38][41][42]. Urea - In a short - term oscillating operation. The domestic basic situation is neutral to strong, and the price is expected to be range - bound. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro - information on the market sentiment [44][45][46]. Styrene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease in April and May, and the export of styrene increases. The market is expected to continue to reduce inventory and follow the price increase [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly adjusted [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. Saudi Aramco's CP price in April increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [58][64][65]. - **Propylene**: The basic situation provides support, and the trend is still relatively strong. The price of propylene has certain fluctuations, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [59][63]. PVC - In a wide - range oscillating market. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and cost increases will support the market [67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price decreased, and it maintains a high level in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounds [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity has certain changes, and the demand and freight rates are affected by multiple factors [72][80][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: In a high - level oscillating market. The futures price decreased, the factory's spot price was stable, and the sales rate was low [85][86]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillating market. The upstream raw materials fluctuated and decreased, the factory's quotation was mostly reduced, and the market trading atmosphere rebounded slightly [85][86]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mills are producing normally, the dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is not high, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [88][89][91]. Pure Benzene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The port inventory decreased, the price in the Shandong market increased, and the market price fluctuated due to macro - news and production reduction expectations [93][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - With the supply pressure from the rubber tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events boosting synthetic rubber, the subsequent rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict between the United States and Iran [1]. Polyolefins - The pricing power returns to hedging merchants, the basis strengthens, and the transaction volume increases. PP and PE continue to see a reduction in supply and an increase in demand. PP is destocking, while PE inventory is accumulating. In April, it is expected that the spot market will tighten and the basis will strengthen, driven by the "strong cost + reduced supply" logic [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The cost - end support has weakened, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is generally viewed as oscillating, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1,150 - 1,250. Short positions can be held. - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased, the demand is sluggish, the cost support has weakened, and there is still inventory - removal pressure. It is also viewed as oscillating. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has generally declined. The market is affected by the weakening of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about high - price demand suppression. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, but the supply shortage still provides fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures are weakly oscillating, the supply has increased slightly, the inventory has accumulated, and the downstream demand increment is less than expected. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. - For PVC, the futures have fallen significantly, the export demand is poor, the market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a strong bottom support. It may be weakly adjusted in the short term [5]. Urea - The urea futures are weakly oscillating, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, the inventory is at a relatively low level, but the supply is still loose. The demand is in a transition period, and the market lacks clear upward or downward drivers. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, with the main contract focusing on the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading theme is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillating pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with a short - term tight - balance supply - demand situation. The supply side is expected to see an increase in far - month imports, while the demand side is generally positive, but the MTO profit is weakening. Two major risks need to be watched: geopolitical easing and continuous compression of MTO profit [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand is expected to improve, and the short - term price may fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high. - For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening slightly, but the supply - demand situation is still tight. The short - term absolute price fluctuates with the oil price, and the same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand is weak in the short term, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the price has support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the oil price trend. - For PTA, the short - term self - driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. The same strategy as for PX is recommended. - For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the price has upward momentum. However, attention should be paid to the risk of a pull - back. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weakening, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The same strategy as for PX is recommended, and the PF processing margin can be expanded at a low level below 800. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the processing margin is expected to be strong. The PR unilateral strategy is the same as for PTA, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to be strong [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of most natural rubber varieties have declined slightly, with the Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropping 0.31%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber price falling 0.63%. The basis of full - latex has increased, and the non - standard price difference has also increased [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 4.70%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8.44%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 120.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand in January increased by 11.09%, while that in Indonesia and India decreased. The tire export volume in February decreased by 12.40%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 28.46%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 0.85%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 9.23% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined, with the L2605 closing price dropping 2.16%. The L59 spread, PP59 spread, and LP05 spread have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Data**: The PE device operating rate has decreased by 4.79%, the downstream weighted operating rate has increased by 5.75%. The PE enterprise inventory has increased by 3.45%, and the social inventory has decreased by 6.58%. The PP enterprise inventory has decreased by 16.19%, and the trader inventory has decreased by 8.18% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash are stable. The glass 2605 contract has dropped 2.02%, and the soda ash 2605 contract has dropped 2.49%. The 05 basis of glass and soda ash has increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 5.22%, and the weekly production has decreased by 5.22%. The float - glass daily melting volume has decreased by 0.62%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume has decreased by 2.28%. The glass factory inventory has decreased by 1.09%, and the soda ash factory inventory has decreased by 0.10% [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main LPG contract PG2605 has dropped 4.04%, and the PG05 - 06 and PG05 - 07 spreads have decreased. The South China spot price has decreased by 0.28%, and the deliverable spot price has decreased by 1.24% [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has decreased by 4.34%, the port inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the port storage capacity ratio has increased by 0.67%. The upstream - main refinery operating rate has decreased by 3.54%, and the downstream - PDH operating rate has decreased by 3.09% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda has decreased by 4.3%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - method PVC has decreased by 3.9%. The SH2605 and V2605 contracts have also declined [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate has increased by 0.8%, and the PVC total operating rate has increased by 1.0%. The alumina industry operating rate has increased by 0.1%, and the Longzhong sample PVC pipe operating rate has increased by 5.1% [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The main contract has dropped 2.71%. The 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 spreads have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production has decreased by 0.36%, the production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 4.17%, and the factory - warehouse inventory has decreased by 13.40% [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude has dropped 3.18%, WTI crude has dropped 1.46%, and SC crude has dropped 1.80%. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads have increased [7]. - **Refined Oil Products**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have all declined. The refined - oil cracking spreads in the United States, Europe, and Singapore have also decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices have declined, with the MA2605 closing price dropping 2.71%. The MA59 spread has decreased by 3.90%, and the MTO05盘面 profit has increased by 44.94% [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The methanol enterprise inventory has decreased by 10.71%, the port inventory has decreased by 8.42%, and the social inventory has decreased by 9.05%. The upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate has increased by 1.74%, and the downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate has increased by 10.42% [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude and WTI crude have changed. The price of pure benzene and styrene has declined. The EB05 - BZ05 spread has increased by 4.6% [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 3.3%, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 4.6%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate has increased by 6.4%, and the styrene operating rate has decreased by 0.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have also fluctuated [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The MEG port inventory has increased by 3.5%, and the arrival expectation has decreased by 33.3%. The Asian PX operating rate has decreased by 2.8%, and the PTA operating rate has increased by 3.6% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is the core focus of the market, affecting global risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the performance of various asset classes. The market is shifting from short - term inflation panic to concerns about medium - term economic recession[4][8][11]. - Different industries are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Some industries are expected to have short - term price support or upward trends, while others may face downward pressure or remain in a state of shock[14][16][19]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, large - scale investment in AI data centers and technology R & D, stable helium supply in South Korea, and the good performance of Zhipu API platform[2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis annualized ratios[3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences. The market is shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns. It is recommended to pay attention to the war situation and control risks[4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Tuesday. China's March PMI data showed an improvement in manufacturing and non - manufacturing industries. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and maintained liquidity[5][6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery in the first quarter is expected, but the pressure on the profit side and inflation may affect the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term[8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets rose. The Fed emphasized inflation control, and the US - Iran conflict situation changed[9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict is still the focus. The short - term pressure on precious metals has eased, but long - term inflation expectations need to be vigilant. It is recommended to wait and see[11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded, LME and domestic inventories decreased, and the spot discount narrowed[13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper ore is tight, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline, providing support for the copper price. The copper price is expected to fluctuate[14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, the inventory increased, and the spot discount remained[15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term[16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, and the downstream replenished inventory after the price decline[17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has stopped falling in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may be limited. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may continue to decline[19]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the inventory increased[20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot of lead has short - term support, but the high沪伦 ratio and the overall pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price[20]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fell, and the cost and nickel iron price were stable[21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term but has strong support in the medium term. It is recommended to operate within a range[21]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand showed different trends[22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is limited, and the demand is weakly recovering. The tin price is expected to fluctuate[23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate fell, and the contract position decreased[24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The resource - end contradiction is prominent. The short - term supply is slightly eased, but the uncertainty is still high. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, the position increased, and the inventory increased[25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, and the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see[26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price fell, the inventory increased, and the raw material price was stable[27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is stable, the terminal consumption is slightly better than expected, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term[28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, the position decreased, and the inventory decreased[29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, the demand is expected to improve, and the price has strong support in the short term[30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell, and the inventory decreased[32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, but there is no trend - upward driving force. It is necessary to pay attention to demand and raw material prices[33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the position decreased[34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore is affected by weather and other factors, and the demand is expected to increase. The ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level[35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell, and the spot prices were at a premium[36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate in the short term or wait and see[38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the inventory decreased[39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot trading is light, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly[40]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased[41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is tightened in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is in a narrow - range adjustment[41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell, and the technical forms were weak[42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors[43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the inventory and demand were weak[45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon change little, and the price is expected to fluctuate[46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price fell, and the inventory was high[47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom[48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber. The tire industry has different operating rates and inventory situations[50][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profit on call options, and configure put options. Hold the hedging position[53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and refined oil futures fell[54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread[55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit changed[56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol has included the geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profit at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices[57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price changed slightly, and the futures price fell[58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices[59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the supply and demand indicators showed different trends[61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is high, and the supply and demand are in a complex situation. It is recommended to wait and see[62]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price fell, the inventory changed, and the supply and demand indicators changed[63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is high, but there are supply reduction expectations. The domestic demand is under pressure, and the export situation is complex[64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand is recovering, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Pay attention to risks[66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, the inventory increased, and the processing fee changed[67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. Pay attention to risks[68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but pay attention to risks[71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, the inventory increased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has room to decline. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume increases[73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand indicators changed[74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term is affected by production mismatch[75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mostly fell, and the supply was abundant[77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended to short on rebounds[78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price mostly fell, and the supply was stable[79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is sufficient, but the short - term price is strong. It is recommended to short on rebounds and hold short positions in the far - end contracts[80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China and soybean export and import data were announced[81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see[83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia's policies on palm oil and relevant production, export, and inventory data were announced[84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to rise in the medium term due to the US - Iran event[85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production and export data of sugar in different countries were announced[86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the unstable international oil price, it is recommended to wait and see the sugar price[87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump's planned visit to China, cotton import data, and production and consumption data were announced[88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to the risk of the US - Iran event[89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]