BZ&EB周报：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 | 供应 | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 物流在春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | 需求 | • | 总体来看，纯苯下游维持高开工、高利润格局，关注春节之后新订单恢复情况。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：目前京博、玉皇等边际装置3月开车仍然有不确定性，重点关注边际检修的回归。 | | | • | 己内酰胺、己二酸：价格上涨，行业利润快速修复，PA6库存也快速去化，重点关注春节之后新订单的跟进情况。 | | | • | 苯酚：利润维持高位，开工也在持续回升。 | | | • | 苯胺：下游库存开始累库，重点关注节后新订单情况 ...

OPEC+"温和"增产， 苯乙烯价格震荡上行 苯乙烯周报 2026/02/28 严梓桑（联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 张正华（能源化工组） 0755-23375333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：OPEC+周日存在"温和"增产预期，原油价格震荡上行，能化板块跟随。 估值：苯乙烯周度跌幅（现货＞成本＞期货），基差走强，BZN价差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格上涨1.16%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格上涨0.38%，纯苯基差上涨47元/吨，纯苯开工率低位反弹。 供应端：EB产能利用率71.08%，环比上涨1.60%，同比去年下降-7.57%，较5年同期下降-8.75%。苯乙烯非一体化利润高位震荡， 开工率季节性震荡。 进出口：12月国内纯苯进口量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. The short - term geopolitical sentiment drives up crude oil prices. The short - term trend of the crude oil market depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical products follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil. It is recommended to use a long - short hedging strategy, going long on products with strong fundamentals (such as PX, PTA, EB) and short on those with weak fundamentals (PP, EG, plastics). For soda ash and PVC, which have a low correlation with oil, a short - selling strategy can be adopted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The short - term logic is centered on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment pushes up prices, but the probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 471. It is recommended to wait and hold small - position 04P440 options if available [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. Exports are expected to increase, providing support on the demand side [6][9]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 7700. It is recommended to wait and observe [9]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventory is high, domestic production is recovering rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy of going long on EB and short on BZ [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 6295. It is recommended to wait and observe, and set a stop - loss at 6295 if entered the market the day before [12]. (4) Rubber - Logic: In the short term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction. Due to the seasonal factors and the cost - driven increase from crude oil, natural rubber shows a passive upward trend. However, the medium - term upward logic is not strong, and it is recommended to hold a short - term long position or a long - matching position, but a medium - term short position [14][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 16250. It is recommended to wait and observe [16]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tires is poor, and the fundamental pressure is increasing. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics [17][20]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen close to a short - term low. The short - term pressure is at 13220. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 13350 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The intraday trading is within the 7050 - 7500 range. It is recommended to wait and observe [24]. (7) PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 5160. It is recommended to wait and observe [25]. (8) PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with reduced positions. The short - term pressure is at 6730 - 6770. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6770 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: It shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. The restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring may bring high import pressure, but the geopolitical sentiment during the holiday adds uncertainty. The upward space depends on the resolution of the Iran issue [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 2270. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 2265 [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The high - inventory and high - premium pressure of the 05 contract is difficult to change, and the price is more likely to fall [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 3780 - 3800. It is recommended to wait and observe, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 3800 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 6830 - 6860. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6860 [36]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: It is in a situation of oversupply. New production capacity has been released during the Spring Festival, and demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 1180 - 1190. It is recommended to hold short positions and set a take - profit at 1190 [38]. (13) PVC - Logic: It has a low correlation with oil and is in a situation of oversupply. Inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the real - estate market is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [40]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 5010. It is recommended to hold short positions, take half - profit actively, and set a stop - loss at 5010 for the remaining half [40].

| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、纯苯成本支撑走强 | 3 | | | 二、纯苯下游周度加权开工负荷较一月回升 | 5 | | | 三、2 月苯乙烯供应回归，基本面转弱 | 8 | | | 四、苯乙烯产业链下游-需求平稳反馈有限 | 11 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 13 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 纯苯苯乙烯 2 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 纯苯苯乙烯报告 装置供应回归，关注出口情况 【行情回顾】 2 月份国内石油苯开工负荷回归至 80%以上，环比上月上升，截至 19 日开 工负荷在 82.61%，加氢苯负荷较1 月有所降低，截至19 日开工负荷在 62.36%。 大榭石化、京博石化计划 3 月份前后重启，浙江石化 2 月中旬装置恢复。加氢苯 多套装置春节后存重启计划，行业开工有一定回升空间。纯苯供需格局存缓解预 期，但是现在库存依旧高企，消化需要时间。2 月苯乙烯行业整体处于盈利，2 月负荷较 1 月环比上升，主要来自几套装置的供应回归，2 月天津渤化 45 万吨/ 年装置以及中化泉州 45 万吨/年装置重启， ...

| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月27日 | | 尿素 | なな女 | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 景丙烯 | ★★★ | | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | ★☆★ | PTA | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | な女女 | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 两烯 | ★☆☆ | 瓶片 | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：低开工率下，假期累库一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至2026年2月23日，全球苯乙烯开工72.80%，环比+3.43%，同比-3.89%， 处于近六年同期偏低水平。 2、截至 2026 年 2 月 24 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量 15.81 万吨，较 上周期增 6.19 万吨，幅度+64.35%。商品量库存在 8.72 万吨，较上周期增 3.32 万吨，幅度+61.48%。 【宏观面分析】 1、2 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市 税务局、市公积金管理中心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产 政策的通知》，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行：符合条件非沪籍居民可在外环内增 购 1 套住房。 2、中共中央政治局：持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、 稳市场、稳预期。 3、中共中央政治局：要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政 策。 【期现行情分析】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证 ...

来源：化纤头条 春节假期期间，伊朗局势变得愈发紧张，美国调集了两个航母战斗群重兵集结，中东再次变成了一个火 药桶，拉高了国际油价，同样也让聚酯链上的各个产品在节后迎来普涨。 聚酯链开年放涨 2月市场因美伊计划重启谈判而令地缘风险溢价回落，但随后美伊发生军事摩擦，风险溢价迅速回归， 油价易涨难跌，对化工品支撑偏强。 春节假期后，至2月24日收盘，布伦特油价较节前（2月13日）上涨5.52%，原油成本面对油化工市场形 成明显提振，叠加节后需求预期增强，42个主要石化产品中上涨占比67%，其中石油焦（5.1%）、PX （3.67%）、苯乙烯（3.06%）、纯苯（2.92%）、PTA（2.8%）。乙二醇、瓶片、短纤期货也在24日出 现了不同程度的上涨。 | | | | 表1 历年石化产品春节前后涨跌幅-2026年为春节前最后一个工作日(2月14日)与节后(2月24日)对比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产业链 | 臣放 | 2021年 | 2022年 | 2023年 | 2024年 | 2025年 | 2026年 | | | ...

芳烃市场周报： 节后需求修复，高效益延续 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2026年2月27日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 • 关注：地缘局势 大宗商品价格变动 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：地缘利好因素持续跟进，芳烃价格节后短期交易美伊地缘冲突带来的成本端上涨，期现货价格高位震荡。中石化2月PX结算价格7385元/ 吨，2月挂牌价格7650元/吨，小幅上调。 • 供给：周内PX装置暂无变动，一二季度检修计划陆续公布。周内PX负荷稳定。本周PX产量为77.13万吨，环比+0%。国内PX周均产能利用率 93.25%，环比+0%。亚洲PX周度平均产能利用率82.51%，环比+0%。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工仍处于高位。 • 需求：本周国内PTA产量为141.52万吨，较上周+0.55万吨，较去年同期+5.41万吨。周期内新材料前期检修装置重启，另一套装置本周短停重 启，本周期国内整体产量小幅增量。 • 总结与展望：PX自四季度起下游需求转好有一定支撑，叠加中美关税会晤以 ...

成文日期：2026年2月13日 报告周期:周报 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) a成橡胶期货周报 一、行情回顾 本周（2026年 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日）上海期货交易所丁二烯橡 胶期货主力合约呈现先上涨后回落，周五收于周内低点的走势。该 合约于 2 月 9 日以 12765 元/吨开盘、盘中最高触及 13175 元/吨, 最低下探至 12490 元/吨，截至 2 月 13 日收盘报 12505 元/吨，较 上周五收盘下跌 285 元/吨。周五持仓 14990 手，持续减仓。 二、现货市场情况 1. 产业链价格变动 本周丁二烯现货价格呈现先扬后抑走势，2 月 9 日现货价为 1472.20 美元/吨，随后连续三日上涨,一于２月 11 日达到 1504.74 美元/吨的周内高点、之后小幅回落、2 月 13 日报收 1477.92 美元/ 吨,较周初小幅上涨 0.39%。 苯乙烯作为丁二烯橡胶的主要原料，本周价格波动下行，从 2 月 9 日的 1111.37 美元/吨跌至 2 月 13 日的 1093.95 美元/吨,累计 下跌 1.57%、对丁二烯橡 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-27 下游开工等待进一步恢复 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-9元/吨（+23）。纯苯港口库存30.40万吨（+0.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费167美元/吨 （-5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费164美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差121.2美元/吨（-24.1美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-160元/吨（+5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-585元/吨（+35），酚酮生产利润-734元/吨（+100），苯胺生产利润1198元/吨（-56）， 己二酸生产利润-277元/吨（+32）。己内酰胺开工率74.46%（+0.36%），苯酚开工率89.50%（+0.50%），苯胺开工率 89.12%（-0.46%），己二酸开工率71.50%（+0.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差170元/吨（+18元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润516元/吨（+44元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存158100吨（+61900吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存87200吨（+33200吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率74.7% ...