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瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20260126
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 09:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As the Spring Festival approaches, the visible inventory of styrene enters the seasonal accumulation phase, and the current inventory pressure is not significant. Affected by the strong styrene spot, the profitability of integrated and non - integrated processes deepens. In the short term, domestic styrene is difficult to break away from the tight supply - demand balance. The short - term EB2603 is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of domestic device dynamics on the supply side [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of styrene is 7702 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the futures trading volume (active: trading volume) is 1006360, down 526710; the long position volume of the top 20 holders is 444560 hands, down 8334 hands; the 3 - month contract closing price is 7702 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the futures holding volume (active: trading volume) is 416309 hands, down 7138 hands; the net long position volume of the top 20 holders is 8868 hands, down 31402 hands; the short position volume of the top 20 holders is 475962 hands, down 17202 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7754 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea middle price is 975 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars; the CFR China middle price is 985 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars. The mainstream prices in different regions vary: 7870 yuan/ton in South China, 7500 yuan/ton in Northeast China (unchanged), 7825 yuan/ton in North China, up 200 yuan, and 7820 yuan/ton in East China, up 60 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The middle price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia is 706 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the middle price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia is 686 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the middle price of ethylene CIF Northwest Europe is 772 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars; the price of ethylene FD US Gulf is 432.5 US dollars/ton, down 2.5 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF is 776.29 US dollars/ton, up 57.96 US dollars; the FOB price in the US Gulf is 285 cents/gallon, up 3 cents; the FOB price in Rotterdam is 911 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars. The market prices in different domestic markets also change: 5900 yuan/ton in South China, up 150 yuan; 5940 yuan/ton in East China, up 50 yuan; 5940 yuan/ton in North China, up 210 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene start - up rate is 69.63%, down 1.23%; the national styrene inventory is 151210 tons, down 9950 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port is 9.35 million tons, down 0.71 million tons. The start - up rate of EPS is 58.71%, up 4.66%; the start - up rate of ABS is 66.8%, down 3%; the start - up rate of PS is 57.3%, down 0.1%; the start - up rate of UPR is 38%, down 1%; the start - up rate of styrene - butadiene rubber is 82.92% (unchanged) [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rates of downstream products show different trends. The EPS start - up rate increases significantly, while other downstream start - up rates mainly decrease. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increases by 1.2% to 27.08 tons from January 16th to 22nd [2] Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the overall output of Chinese styrene factories is 34.93 tons, down 1.72% month - on - month; the factory capacity utilization rate is 69.63%, down 1.23% month - on - month. As of January 22nd, the styrene factory inventory is 15.12 tons, down 6.17% from last week. As of January 26th, the inventory in the East China port is 10.06 tons, up 7.59% from last week; the inventory in the South China port is 1.5 tons, up 25% from last week. A 30 - ton device in North China stopped due to a fault last week, and the loads of some devices in the Northeast and South China were adjusted, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in styrene output and capacity utilization [2] Viewpoint Summary - With the approach of the Spring Festival, the visible inventory of styrene enters the seasonal accumulation stage, and the current inventory pressure is not large. The profitability of integrated and non - integrated processes deepens due to the strong styrene spot. The 45 - ton device of Sinochem Quanzhou is planned to restart this week, the restart time of the 45 - ton faulty device of Bohua is still uncertain, and the 30 - ton device of Xuyang remains under maintenance. The start - up loads of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS devices are adjusted in the short term, and the overall demand changes little. The short - term EB2603 is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]