申万宏源认为，预计2026年油价维持中性区间，炼化与聚酯板块在供给收缩下景气度有望底部修复。该 机构判断，2026年原油供需基本维持弱平衡，油价中枢相比2025年稳中略降，中长期油价仍将维持中性 区间；2026年在国内"反内卷"政策推动、海外炼化产能逐步退出下，炼化盈利预期将有所修复；聚酯产 业链未来新增投资不大，景气存在较大弹性。 石化ETF（159731）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为 60.85%，石油石化行业占比为32.16%。随着石化产业供需持续改善，细分板块景气度有望持续上行。 11月21日，A股市场震荡调整，石化ETF（159731）随指数下行，盘中跌逾3.5%，持仓股中仅彤程新材 和三棵树飘红。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸 金"1691万元。 近日，化工板块迎来结构性机会。具体而言，炼油板块由于俄罗斯炼厂遭袭、欧美部分炼能关闭等供给 侧因素，全球炼油利润维持在多年高位，拥有炼厂资产的企业将直接受益。硫磺因需求受到新能源、化 肥等领域的强力拉动，而供给却因炼能增长放缓及地缘政治因素受限，导致价格飙升。此外 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价收跌，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘下跌 0.3 美元至 59.14 美 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 0.5%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘下跌 0.13 美元/桶，至 | | | | 63.38 美元/桶，跌幅 0.2%。SC2512 以 456.7 元/桶收盘，下跌 1.7 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 0.37%。宏观方面，由于政府停摆而推迟了许久发布 | | | | 的劳工统计局最新报告显示，8 月出现下降的非农就业人数当月 | | | | 增加了 11.9 万。与此同时，失业率上升至近四年来的最高水平。 | | | | 非农数据不及预期令市场承压。库存方面数据显示，11 月 20 日 | | | | 止当周，阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普 ARA 枢纽的柴油库存下 | | | 原油 | 降近 5%。当周，欧洲 ARA 枢纽的柴油库存为 218 万吨，之前一 | 震荡 | | | 周为 228.5 万吨。当周，欧洲 ARA 枢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For pure benzene, low US gasoline inventory supports Asian aromatics through gasoline blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has been significantly repaired, potentially easing long - term Chinese arrival pressure, but short - term arrival pressure still exists, with rising port inventory and a weak basis. Domestic production has not further increased after an earlier rise, and downstream开工 remains low. Phenol开工 has increased significantly, while aniline and adipic acid开工 have declined, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [3]. - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boost and low domestic开工, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Downstream开工 remains low, with EPS开工 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工 slightly rising from a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene consecutive first - to - third contract spread [1][15]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and EB consecutive first - to - third contract spread [20]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Production profit and spread figures for pure benzene and styrene include naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various international price spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as their import profits [22][25][34]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, the inventory figure is the East China port inventory, and the operating rate figure is the pure benzene operating rate. For styrene, inventory figures include East China port inventory, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory, and the operating rate figure is the styrene operating rate [40][42][45]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of styrene include EPS, PS, and ABS. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [51][53][54]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of pure benzene include caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other related products. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [60][63][72]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [4]. - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

化工日报 | 2025-11-21 煤价继续下跌，EG增仓下行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3822元/吨（较前一交易日变动-81元/吨，幅度-2.08%），EG华东市场现货价 3876元/吨（较前一交易日变动-49元/吨，幅度-1.25%），EG华东现货基差32元/吨（环比+8元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-60美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-1024 元/吨（环比-30元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为63.3万吨（环比+1.5万吨）。据CCF数据，本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。隆众数据，截至11月20日华东主港地区MEG库存总量63.3万吨,较上一期降低3.46万 吨，周初天气影响下部分码头封航，船期到货有所推迟。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多 ...

11月20日，苯乙烯期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报6632.00元/吨，震荡走高1.80%。 【消息面汇总】 11月7日至13日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在34.44万吨，环比+3.45%;工厂产能利用率69.25%，环比 +2.31%。 11月19日，苯乙烯前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓32.73万手，空单持仓37.66万手，多空 比0.87。净持仓为-4.93万手，相较上日减少2233手。 现货方面，本周苯乙烯价格修复上涨，截至11月19日江苏市场收盘均价在6560元/吨，较11月12日上涨 255元/吨，涨幅4.04%。 机构观点 国投安信期货：纯苯价格收涨，从成本端给予提振。苯乙烯自身供需继续维持紧平衡，国产供应仅有小 幅增量预期，需求端暂无明显减量计划，主力下游需求维持在良好表现。虽然港口库存仍处于高位水 平，但持续去库预期仍在。 新湖期货：日内市场继续消化苯乙烯出口消息，且有市场消息称韩国与美国芳烃调油套利窗口开启，提 振市场氛围，叠加日内华东主港去库，苯乙烯价格上涨。买涨情绪下，成交较昨日改善。山东与江苏市 场价差在-175元/吨，套利窗口关闭，存东北货源流向华东、华北。中期来看 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-20 EG基差继续走弱，负反馈逐步显现 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3903元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.10%），EG华东市场现货价3925 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.76%），EG华东现货基差24元/吨（环比-6元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-59美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-994 元/吨（环比-20元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 策略 单边：中性。投产压力较大，随着港口库存的回升，场内货源流动性增加，乙二醇现货基差趋弱。但近期高成本 装置负反馈逐渐出现，高供应和累库压力有所缓解 跨期：EG2601-EG2605反套 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价 ...

每经记者｜杨建 每经编辑｜彭水萍 ｜2025年11月20日 星期四｜ NO.3 2025年我国AI玩具市场规模有望增至290亿元 工业和信息化部消费品工业司司长何亚琼11月19日在新闻发布会上表示，近年来，随着新材料、新工 艺、新技术的不断应用，我国玩具产品的品种丰富度实现大幅提升，玩具产品质量不断提高，标准体系 不断完善。尤其是人工智能及大模型的应用为玩具产品注入新灵魂，显著提升玩具产品交互体验，能互 动的AI玩具深受年轻人喜爱，已成为行业竞争的新赛道。据统计，2024年我国AI玩具市场规模约246亿 元，预计2025年全年将增至290亿元。 NO.4 英特尔副总裁：下一代AI PC平台已在研发中 NO.1 闪存全面大幅涨价，最高涨幅达38.46% 11月19日，继DRAM大幅涨价后，闪存（Flash）也全面涨价。据CFM闪存市场最新报价，11月19日， Flash Wafer（闪存晶圆）价格全面上涨，最高涨幅38.46%。具体来看，1Tb QLC涨25.00%至12.50美 元，1Tb TLC涨23.81%至13.00美元，512Gb TLC涨38.46%至9.00美元，256Gb TLC涨14.58%至 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Sanjiang Chemical (02198) saw a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 2.83 with a trading volume of HKD 7.1971 million, following the announcement of a price hike in organic silicon DMC to RMB 13,200 per ton, an increase of approximately RMB 200 per ton from before the meeting [1] Company Summary - China Sanjiang Chemical is primarily engaged in the production and supply of ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, and surfactants [1] - The company's main products include ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene (PP), surfactants, water-reducing agents, methyl tert-butyl ether/carbon four (MTBE/C4), and crude pentene, among others [1] - The company also provides processing services for polypropylene, methyl tert-butyl ether, and surfactants, and produces and supplies other chemical products, including carbon four, unprocessed pentene, and industrial gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, and argon [1] - The company operates in both domestic and international markets [1] Industry Summary - According to CITIC Securities, the chemical industry has experienced a decline in profitability for three consecutive years since 2022, with some sectors facing intense competition and overall industry losses [1] - In response to the domestic "anti-involution" initiative, multiple industries are actively promoting self-discipline to restore product supply-demand balance, boost product prices, and enhance industry profitability [1]

Group 1 - China Sanjiang Chemical (02198) saw a stock increase of over 5%, currently up 5.6% at HKD 2.83, with a trading volume of HKD 7.1971 million [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC has been raised to RMB 13,200 per ton, an increase of approximately RMB 200 per ton compared to before the recent meeting [1] - Since 2022, the chemical industry has experienced a continuous decline in profitability for three consecutive years, with some sectors facing intense competition and overall industry losses [1] Group 2 - Multiple industries have actively responded to the domestic "anti-involution" initiative, promoting industry self-discipline to restore product supply-demand balance, increase product prices, and enhance industry profitability [1] - China Sanjiang Chemical primarily engages in the production and supply of ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, and surfactants, among other chemical products [1] - The company also provides processing services for polypropylene, methyl tert-butyl ether, and surfactants, and produces other chemical products including C4, unprocessed pentene, and industrial gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, and argon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant gains in the sector index and individual stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the China Petrochemical Industry Index rose by 1.37%, with notable increases in stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials (up 5.63%) and China Petroleum (up 4.83%) [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 1.44%, reaching a price of 0.85 yuan, and has seen a total net inflow of 8.51 million yuan over the past three days [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF's net asset value has risen by 26.56% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 15.86% since its inception [3]. Group 2: Investment Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the chemical sector is currently trading based on three main themes: 1. Increased demand for energy storage materials, particularly in lithium battery supply chains [3]. 2. Ongoing self-regulation within the chemical industry, which may lead to a recovery in chemical prices [3]. 3. High growth potential in the chemical sector's core businesses [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petrochemical Industry Index account for 56.05% of the index, with Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum being the largest contributors [3]. Group 3: Stock Performance - The performance of key stocks within the index includes: - Wanhua Chemical: -0.37% (10.47% weight) - China Petroleum: +4.05% (7.63% weight) - Salt Lake Co.: +5.58% (6.44% weight) - China Petrochemical: +4.83% (6.44% weight) [5].