2026 年 03 月 02 日 策略研究团队 美以伊冲突最大的预期差——时长和霍尔木兹海峡 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 斩首行动后，预期差扩大 我们认为，本轮冲突最大的预期差或在于：市场仍线性外推通过"AI 精准斩首" 实现速战速决，却忽视了去中心化防御带来的冲突长尾化，以及海峡封锁后的物 理修复周期对全球能源供应的不可逆性。冲突时长和霍尔木兹海峡，可能是当前 美以伊冲突比较明显的预期差。 当前的三大预期差 （1）从"AI 突袭"到"马赛克泥潭"的久期错位。市场认为哈梅内伊及军政高 层被"一锅端"将导致伊朗政权迅速崩溃，冲突会像"外科手术"一样快速结束。 但 AI 的高效不代表冲突的终结。另一方面，尽管哈梅内伊丧生，但伊朗独特的 "层级化权力结构"和预设的"四级继承人制度"确保了指挥链的瞬间修复。即 便德黑兰指挥中心消失，局部的、非对称的导弹与无人机袭击或许也不会停止。 （2）霍尔木兹海峡封锁的"物理刚性"与"增产幻觉"。基于伊朗外长表态没有 封锁霍尔木兹海峡的计划，特朗普表示对伊朗军事行动可能持续约 4 周，市场认 为霍 ...

皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 美伊局势升级，商品市场如何演变？ 投资咨询业务资格 安粮期货热点报告 2026 年 2 月 26 日，美伊在日内瓦举行新一轮谈判，但特朗普随后表示伊朗拒绝了所有 美方提议，会谈结果"令人失望"。仅两天后，局势骤然升级：自 2 月 28 日起，美国与以 色列持续对伊朗发动空袭，目标包括伊朗核设施、军事指挥中心等重要设施。3 月 2 日凌晨， 以色列空军再次对德黑兰市中心目标实施打击，伊朗随后展开反击。 此次冲突并非突然爆发，而是一场持续升温的危机。复盘整个过程，可以清晰识别出两 个关键转折点： 第一节点（2025 年 6 月 13 日—24 日）： 所谓的"12 日战争"突然爆发，标志着冲 突从口头博弈走向实质性对抗。 第二节点（2025 年 12 月 27 日起）： 德黑兰爆发反政府示威并迅速蔓延至全国，特 朗普随即发出强硬军事威胁，市场避险 ...

周度报告-期货综合 地缘冲突升级，贵金属与能化走强 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：商品齐涨，贵金属领涨 期 货 本周（02.23-03.01）商品价格普遍上涨。板块上看：贵金属>有 色>能源>农产品>油化工>黑色>煤化工。美伊地缘冲突不断升 级、美国关税政策存在不确定性，市场避险情绪升温，贵金 属、能源涨幅较大。特朗普政府计划为关键矿产制定参考价格 在情绪上提振有色金属；供给端担忧推动锡价与碳酸锂价格大 幅上涨。春节后需求下降，生猪等农产品价格下跌，不过棉花 与豆油等品种涨价。上海地产政策发力提振黑色商品情绪，不 过政策效力有待观察，黑色品种涨幅有限。油价上涨支撑芳 烃、烯烃链价格；但氯碱板块供应、库存偏高，下游需求较 弱，价格表现偏弱。 综 ★下周展望：地缘冲突升级，贵金属与能化走强 合 展望下周，地缘冲突将推动贵金属、能源化工等板块走强，但 上涨的可持续性取决于美伊冲突的持续性及烈度。地缘冲突对 有色板块的利多弱于能源，不过有色板块的基本面强于能源化 工。地产政策虽发力，但内需难以快速改善，黑色商品涨价动 力较弱。农产品板块的机会是结构性的。总体来看，下周能 源、贵金属>化工>有色>农产品> ...

涨价潮来临。 进入金三银四，今年我们看到涨价品种开始变多。 跟踪的154个主流化工品中，本周上涨品类占37.01%，环比+12.83%，下跌化工品占比13.64%，环比-15.12%。 涨价品种占比在过去10年中，仅次于2021年和2022年。 考虑到目前涨价的品种更多属于小品种，与主流品种重叠度尚不明显，实际的涨价情况会更加乐观一些。 < 涨价潮来临。 进入金三银四，今年我们看到涨价品种开始变多。 跟踪的154个主流化工品中，本周上涨品类占37.01%，环比+12.83%，下跌化工品占比13.64%，环比-15.12%。 涨价品种占比在过去10年中，仅次于2021年和2022年。 考虑到目前涨价的品种更多属于小品种，与主流品种重叠度尚不明显，实际的涨价情况会更加乐观一些。 周五我们看到坯布报价上行、制冷剂报价上行；加上周末地缘风险导致油价上行，从成本端有望进一步推升化工 品价格，并加剧甲醇、溴素等化工品的供给扰动。 涨价主题在H1的强度有望超预期。 ...

景气方面，2月份景气较高的领域主要集中在部分资源品、公用事业和信息技术领域，其中资源品板块多数工业金属、化工品价格上涨；中游制造领域光伏 价格指数上行，汽车产销放缓；消费服务板块生猪养殖盈利改善，四大家电零售额同比降幅收窄；金融地产中商品房销售持续低迷，公用事业领域燃气价格 上涨。部分涨价资源品（工业金属、金属新材料、能源金属、贵金属、化学制品等），AI 景气催化的TMT 板块（半导体、通信设备、计算机设备、软件开 发等），出口优势凸显的中高端制造业（电网设备、自动化设备、通用设备、汽车零部件等）等以及非银等行业。 主力净流入行业板块前五：有色金属，国产软件，光伏，稀土磁材，锂电池； 主力净流入概念板块前五：人工智能，国企改革，大数据，数字经济，一带 一路； 主力净流入个股前十：包钢股份、云南锗业、厦门钨业、永泰能源、寒武纪、海光信息、京东方Ａ、中钨高新、北方稀土、昆仑万维 近日，清华大学科研团队合作提出全柔性人工智能芯片FLEXI——面向边缘智能加速的柔性数字存内计算芯片，填补了柔性电子技术领域的空白，为人工智 能应用提供了专用、可扩展且低功耗的硬件支撑。随着技术突破、政策支持，柔性芯片正在走向产业化应用， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/26 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 2026/02/1 1 801 2220 2215 2395 - 2315 2438 263 323 -7 -35 - 2026/02/1 2 801 2213 2213 2390 - 2315 2438 263 323 -15 -30 - 2026/02/1 3 801 2210 2205 2390 - 2315 2438 259 321 -0 -17 - 2026/02/2 4 801 2243 2255 2400 - 2315 2468 269 322 -14 -30 - 2026/02/2 5 801 2237 2233 2395 - 2315 2468 - - - -30 - 日度变化 0 -6 -22 -5 - 0 0 - - - 0 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-26 原油震荡等待局势明朗，化⼯端本⾝⽭ 盾较⼩横盘整理 随着美伊谈判的临近，原油和金融市场严阵以待，权衡谈判达成的可 能性。美伊下一轮谈判定于周四在日内瓦举行，为形成威慑力，美国已下 令在中东展开2003年第二次海湾战争以来规模最大的军事集结，包括部署 两艘航空母舰。另一个对原油市场至关重要的事件是于周末举行的OPEC+ 会议，该组织在2026年一季度暂停了增产计划，二季度是否恢复增产、增 产幅度如何，都会对原油市场带来影响。与此同时，斯洛伐克表示，从俄 罗斯运送原油经过乌克兰的友谊管道仍处于关停状态。（以上信息来自彭 博终端） 板块逻辑： 原油等待美伊谈判进展，化工进入震荡格局。从化工品各个链条基本 面看，聚酯链条供需较为健康，聚烯烃依旧有较大的供应压力，尤其是P E。纯苯-苯乙烯、氯碱则以震荡为主。聚酯原料普遍因为3-5月份的春季 检修而去库，因为2025年下半年较长时间的亏损，PTA产业链没有因为微 利就加大开工。烯烃的弱势主要在于全球都维持较高产能增速，增速高于 过去五年的均值，当前PE的周产量同比攀升到 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周三油价下行，其中WTI 4月合约收盘下跌0.21美元至65.42美元/桶，跌幅0.32%。布伦特4月合约收盘上 涨0.08美元至70.85美元/桶，涨幅0.11%。SC2604以486.5元/桶收盘，下跌3.1元/桶，跌幅0.63%。伊朗外 长阿拉格齐率领伊朗代表团抵达瑞士日内瓦，参加即将于26日举行的伊美第三轮谈判。在阿曼斡旋下， 伊朗与美国第三轮间接谈判将于26日在日内瓦举行。美国近期在中东地区大规模集结兵力。美国总统特 朗普近日承认，他在考虑对伊朗进行"有限军事打击"。EIA周三公布的数据显示，由于炼油厂产能利用 率下降且进口增加，上周美国原油库存增幅创2023年2月以来新大，推动库存增至八个半月来最高水 平。EIA数据显示，截至2月20日当周，美国原油库存增加了1600万桶，远超分析师预期的150万桶增 幅，库存增至逾八个月来最高的4.358亿桶。斯洛伐克总理菲佐表示，乌克兰总统泽连斯基一再推迟恢 复"友谊"管道送油的做法是"敌对行为"。乌克兰已多次更 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-25 A股马年开门红，关注特朗普国情咨文演讲 市场分析 国内春节假期期间，海外地缘风险不断。首先是伊朗紧张，美伊于2月17日在日内瓦举行第二轮间接谈判，双方承 认分歧仍存，但同意继续接触，美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行。据美国《纽约时报》22日报 道，美国总统特朗普已告诉其顾问，他"倾向于在未来数日（对伊朗）进行初步打击"，然后在未来数月发动一场 更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊朗"屈服"并按美方要求达成协议。此前，特朗普曾公开表示考虑对伊朗进行"初步的 有限军事打击"，并给出约10-15天的"最后期限"，否则将面临严重后果。其次是美国"对等关税"被宣布违法，2月 20日，美国最高法院以6票对3票的投票结果裁定，1977年出台的《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）并未赋予总统 在未经国会批准时征收关税的权力。同日，特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条，征收"全球进口关税"， 税率10%，为期150天，以取代被最高法院认定违法的关税，该关税2月24日已经正式生效。当地时间2月21日，美 国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将把对全球商品加征10%的 ...