大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年8月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 港口继续，甲醇偏弱态势 第二章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、核心观点及交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率下滑，截止8月22日，鄂市煤矿开工率76%，榆林地区煤矿开工率47%，煤矿恢复生产，鄂尔多斯地 区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率回升，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量400万吨附近，需求减弱，坑口价止涨回落。供应端，原料煤 价格止涨，西北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在660元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，口 端，美金昨日价格继续下跌，进口顺挂稳定，伊朗装置基本正常，非伊开工稳定，外盘开工高位，欧美市场稳定，中欧价差小幅扩大， 东南亚转口窗口关闭，伊朗8月已装78万吨，印度减量采购伊朗货源，伊朗降价招标，中国流向增加，非伊货源稳定，9月进口预期调 高至140万吨，美金商逢高获利出货积极，太仓到货较多，持续累库。需求端，传统下游进入淡季，开工率回落，MTO装置开工率回升， 兴兴 ...

化工日报 | 2025-08-22 EG价格坚挺，基差运行平稳 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4473元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.09%），EG华东市场现货价4518 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.36%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）90元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 周四，乙二醇价格重心高位坚挺，基差运行平稳。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-48美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-69元/吨（环比+47 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.7万吨（环比-0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.8万吨（环比-3.7万吨）。本周华东主港计划到港总数5.4万吨，另外副港计划到 港4.3万吨。周四华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量49.78万吨，较本周一降低0.46万吨；较上周四降低3.67万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇合成气制负荷已回归高位，EG总开工回升至70%以上高位 运行；海外供应方面，8月后进口预期回升至65万吨附 ...

| 甲醇日评20250822: 反弹空间有限 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | | 变化值 变化值 指标 2025/8/21 2025/8/20 | | | | | (绝对值) (相对值) | | | MA01 | | 元/吨 2425.00 2424.00 1.00 0.04% | | | 元/吨 | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 2393.00 2402.00 -9.00 -0.37% | | | 2314.00 | (收盘价) | -0.04% MA09 元/吨 2315.00 -1.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 太仓 2310.00 2300.00 10.00 0.43% | | | 元/吨 | | 山东 2310.00 2300.00 10.00 0.43% | | | 广东 | | 元/吨 2295.00 2290.00 5.00 0.22% | 期现价格 | | 元/吨 | 甲醇现货价格 | -10.00 -0.47% 陕西 2120.00 2130.00 | 及基差 | | | (日度均价) | | | | 川渝 | | 元/吨 2200.00 ...

Market Overview - Lithium carbonate experienced a significant drop of 8%, closing at the limit down, while soda ash fell over 5% and glass dropped over 4% [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon, coking coal, and manganese silicon also saw declines of over 2%, with various agricultural products dropping more than 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1424.91 points, down 12.53 points or 0.87% from the previous trading day [1] Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical market initially opened with widespread declines but saw a rebound in alkali and ethylene glycol prices in the afternoon due to reports on the chemical industry's "anti-involution" [3] - Caustic soda's main contract rose by 1.80% as supply pressures remain, but short-term fundamentals are supported by maintenance in some regions and high demand from alumina production [3] - Ethylene glycol's main contract saw a rise of 1.61%, supported by domestic supply disruptions and low port inventories, despite increased operational rates in domestic coal-based facilities [4] Glass and Soda Ash Market - Both glass and soda ash showed weak performance, with soda ash dropping over 5% and glass over 4% due to high supply expectations and weak demand [5] - The daily production of soda ash remains above 110,000 tons, maintaining a high level, while the glass market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and weak sales [5] Lithium Market Dynamics - Jiangte Motor announced the resumption of its subsidiary Yichun Silver Lithium, leading to a sharp drop in lithium carbonate futures, which exceeded market expectations [6] - Despite the resumption, the actual reduction in lithium carbonate production was less than anticipated, with weekly production reaching 19,980 tons and an operating rate of 51.8% as of August 14 [7] - The fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures are more influenced by market sentiment rather than fundamental factors, indicating a need for cautious participation in the market [7]

Company News - Fuyao Glass reported a net profit of 4.805 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.33%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9 yuan per 10 shares [10] - Xian Da Co. achieved a revenue of 1.423 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 11.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of 136 million yuan, a significant increase of 2561.58% [10] - Dazhu CNC reported a revenue of 2.382 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.26%, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 83.82% [10] - Pop Mart achieved a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [10] - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 116 billion yuan in the second quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, with an adjusted net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, a historical high, up 75.4% [10] Industry News - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the stamp duty on securities transactions reached 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.5% [7] - The People's Bank of China announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re-lending for agricultural and small enterprises to support disaster-affected areas [7] - The A-share margin trading balance reached 2.1023 trillion yuan, marking a new high since June 29, 2015 [9] - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission released a plan to accelerate the development of "AI + manufacturing," promoting deep integration of AI technology with the manufacturing industry [8] - The Guangdong provincial government announced policies to promote high-quality development in the commercial aerospace sector from 2025 to 2028 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission (ITC) have imposed a combined tariff rate of 825.92% on Chinese hexamine, effectively eliminating the possibility of direct exports to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Export Dynamics - The direct export model for Chinese hexamine is nearly "ineffective" due to the prohibitive costs associated with the tariffs, which would increase the cost of a $1 million shipment by over $8 million [2] - The export share of hexamine to the U.S. is expected to continue shrinking over the next 2-3 years as the U.S. maintains high-pressure "double anti" measures against Chinese chemical products [2] Group 2: Third-Country Transshipment - The industry is increasingly looking at third-country transshipment as a potential solution to bypass high tariffs, with countries like Turkey serving as key transshipment hubs [4] - Short-term, Turkey and Dubai are likely to become central nodes for hexamine transshipment, while Southeast Asian countries may join as regional trade cooperation deepens [4] Group 3: Industry Competition Landscape - There remains a rigid demand for hexamine in the U.S. market, particularly in the plastics, rubber additives, and pharmaceutical sectors [5] - The ability to successfully utilize transshipment models will be a critical factor for companies to maintain international orders [5] - Companies may consider investing in small-scale processing in transshipment countries, leading to a "re-manufacturing" model [5] - Exporters are likely to diversify their supply chains, reducing reliance on a single market and expanding into South America, Africa, and the Middle East [5] Group 4: Policy and Compliance Considerations - Transshipment must comply with the legal and trade policies of the transshipment countries, and the U.S. may enhance scrutiny of transshipment trade, raising compliance management requirements for companies [7] - Companies need to prioritize documentation, certificates of origin, and trade compliance to avoid potential legal risks [7] - Long-term, transparency and compliance will be crucial for the sustainability of the third-country transshipment model [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - Third-country transshipment is viewed as the most feasible solution under current conditions, but its effectiveness in overcoming U.S. tariff barriers will depend on market practices and policy developments over the coming years [9] - The future of hexamine exports is not only a result of tariff negotiations but also part of the broader reshaping of global supply chain dynamics [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] Core Viewpoints - The price center of ethylene glycol (EG) showed a weak consolidation, with the basis moderately strengthening. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$50/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China main port showed a mixed trend. The overall supply and demand in August - September are both in an increasing trend, with a slight inventory build-up in the balance sheet, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. [1][2] - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. [2] - The supply and demand of EG are both on the rise, with little fundamental contradiction. Under low inventory conditions, attention should be paid to cost changes. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,346 yuan/ton (a change of -23 yuan/ton, or -0.53% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,439 yuan/ton (a change of -19 yuan/ton, or -0.43% compared to the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$50/ton (a month - on - month increase of $0/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton). The syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences are provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 53.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons). The total actual arrivals at the main port last week were 14.1 tons, with a slight inventory build - up at the port. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 5.4 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary port are 4.3 tons. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in the East China and South China regions continued to accumulate. With high foreign vessel arrivals and weak downstream demand, port methanol inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention. The restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin will increase the olefin industry's operating rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was -103 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 665,628 lots, an increase of 42,183 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -132,231 lots, a decrease of 4,802 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10,968, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,295 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2,070 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The East China - Northwest price spread was 225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was -101 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. CFR China Main Port was 262 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars; CFR Southeast Asia was 324 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. FOB Rotterdam was 272 euros/ton, up 1 euro; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread was -62 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.07 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory was 687,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; South China port inventory was 334,800 tons, an increase of 51,300 tons. Methanol import profit was 49.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38 yuan; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons. Inland enterprise inventory was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 82.4%, an increase of 0.79 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 42.05%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.15%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.06%, an increase of 1.82 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 63.39%, a decrease of 3.23 percentage points. The olefin operating rate was 83.12%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit was -940 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 21.64%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.34%, a decrease of 4 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 2.06%, a decrease of 12.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.11%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of August 13, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.0218 million tons, with 45,000 tons of inventory accumulation in East China and 51,300 tons in South China. The port inventory continued to accumulate, with 236,000 tons of foreign vessel unloading recorded and a large amount of non - explicit unloading. As of August 13, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 219,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.90%. As of August 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [3] Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate decreased slightly. After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [3] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Price Index - The wholesale and retail price indices for agricultural products in Zibo have increased, with notable fluctuations in vegetables and fruits [1][2] - Garlic prices have decreased slightly, with a wholesale average of 3.19 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg (7.89%) from last week, while retail prices remain stable at 5.13 yuan/kg [1] - Cucumber prices have risen significantly, with a wholesale average of 2.70 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg (22.73%), driven by reduced supply due to weather conditions and high demand from the catering industry [1] - Leek prices have increased, with a wholesale average of 1.30 yuan/kg, up 0.30 yuan/kg (30.00%), attributed to slower growth and reduced supply of quality leeks [2] - Cabbage prices have also risen, with a wholesale average of 1.00 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg (25.00%), due to adverse weather affecting vegetable production [2] - Pear prices have slightly decreased, with a wholesale average of 3.19 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (0.93%), as market demand shows seasonal recovery [3] - Overall, the supply of vegetables and fruits in Zibo is stable, with recommendations for consumers to purchase according to their needs [3] Group 2: Chemical Products Price Index - The Zibo chemical products price index is at 718.84, down from 721.70, indicating a slight decline [4] - The basic chemical products price index averages 708.16, down from 710.51, reflecting weak market conditions influenced by falling international oil prices [4] - The plastic products price index averages 744.34, down from 748.39, due to varying price trends among different plastic products [4] - The rubber products price index averages 548.27, up from 543.13, supported by strong synthetic rubber prices and tight supply of certain grades [4] Group 3: New Materials Price Index - The Zibo new materials price index is at 805.05, down from 808.07, indicating a downward trend [5] - The PC price index averages 758.32, down from 762.11, due to falling raw material prices [5] - The PA price index averages 678.37, down from 678.74, reflecting a stable but declining trend due to oversupply [5] - The PET bottle chip price index averages 894.20, down from 898.80, influenced by weak demand and declining raw material prices [5] Group 4: Natural Gas Price Index - The average LNG price in Zibo is 4192 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton (4.13%) from last week, due to increased competition from imported LNG [6] - The liquid natural gas price index is declining, while the pipeline natural gas index remains unchanged [6] - Future expectations indicate continued downward pressure on LNG prices due to weak downstream demand [6] Group 5: Cement Price Index - The average price for various types of cement in Zibo remains stable, with no significant changes reported [7] - Specific prices include 264 yuan/ton for bagged PC42.5 cement and 270 yuan/ton for bulk PC42.5 cement, indicating stability in the market [7] - The overall cement price index in Zibo shows no fluctuations, reflecting a steady market environment [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities and financial products presenting different trends. Commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Financial products are influenced by macro - economic data and policy orientations. - Investors should adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of different products, including holding options, going long or short, and paying attention to price resistance levels and inventory changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fluctuated. The SC09 contract was relatively weak, falling 0.71% due to position - shifting. After the US - Russia presidential meeting, the risk of Russian oil sanctions weakened, and oil prices further declined. Continue to hold the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money crude oil options [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The US retail sales monthly rate announced on Friday was in line with expectations, and precious metals had limited fluctuations. After the positive signals from the US - Russia meeting over the weekend, the adjustment of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated narrowly last Friday. The market expects a high probability of a September interest rate cut. The 2508 contract entered delivery with a spot premium. It is advisable to hold short positions at high levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum declined slightly on Friday. The downstream start - up is stable, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Low inventory supports the LME zinc price. The SHFE zinc has priced in the weak reality and expectations. The short - term directional signal is weak, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The lead price has limited downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions based on 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the end - of - life call option opportunities [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded. The market is expected to return to fundamentals. Pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - **Tin**: Both domestic and international tin prices rebounded last Friday. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11]. - **Non - Ferrous Metal Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [7]. - **Energy - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and both LU and FU are under pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures fluctuated narrowly. The 8 - month production plan decreased, and the cost - side weakness puts pressure on BU [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, and the price is stabilizing. The futures are in a low - level oscillation [24]. - **Chemical Products** - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is loose. The market may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume is high, and the port inventory is increasing. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" demand is approaching [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is falling, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [27]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The futures are in a consolidation pattern. The supply increases, and the demand lacks upward drive [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene sales are weak, polyethylene production enterprises are inclined to raise prices, and polypropylene is under supply pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices rebounded and then declined. Pay attention to the oil price direction and demand recovery [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at 4400 yuan/ton. The short - term trend is low - level oscillation [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [33]. - **Glass**: The industry may accumulate inventory. Consider a low - long strategy near the cost [34]. - **20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for RU and a bullish strategy for NR and BR [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the short - term news is disturbing. The long - term supply pressure exists [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans & Bean Meal**: The USDA August report is bullish for US soybeans. Domestic soybean imports are expected, and bean meal is cautiously bullish [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Pay attention to the crop inspection results of US soybeans and policy changes in Indonesia. Increase the expected price fluctuation range [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed weather impact is small. The mid - term strategy is to be bullish, and the short - term trend is expected to be stable and oscillatory [39]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The recent auctions may drag down the price. Pay attention to the price difference with imported soybeans [40]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The US corn price is falling, and the domestic corn may continue to be weak at the bottom [41]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The spot price may decline, and the futures can be hedged at high prices [42]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is rising seasonally. The futures still face over - capacity pressure [43]. - **Cotton**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [44]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46]. - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving. Pay attention to whether the futures price can stop falling and stabilize [47]. - **Pulp**: The pulp is oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Most broad - based indexes rose, and the policy focus is shifting to the structure. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures mostly fell. The yield curve may steepen in the future [50].