Core Viewpoint - The UK economy showed signs of slowing growth in Q2, with GDP growth at 1.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 1.3% in Q1, but still above market expectations of 1% [1] Economic Performance - In June, UK GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year, the highest since February, surpassing expectations of 1.1% and revised from a previous value of 0.7% to 0.9% [1] - The quarterly GDP growth for Q2 was 0.3%, indicating a modest recovery [1] - The service sector was a key driver, with output increasing by 0.3%, while industrial production rose by 0.7% and construction output grew by 0.3% [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists from Santander and Berenberg suggest that the Bank of England may maintain the base interest rate at 4.0% for the remainder of 2025, given the better-than-expected economic data and anticipated inflation rise [1][2] - However, there are differing views in the market regarding the sustainability of UK economic growth, with some expecting a rate cut in December [2] Concerns on Growth Sustainability - Private consumption was weaker than expected, and business investment saw a significant decline, indicating insufficient internal growth momentum [2] - The strong performance in Q2 was primarily supported by government spending and net exports, which may not be sustainable in the long term [2] - Key components such as household consumption and business investment were notably weaker compared to Q1, raising concerns about future growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates in September, revising previous predictions of a rate cut [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Outlook** - The Bank of England is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, contrasting earlier forecasts that suggested a potential rate decrease [1]